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"Supposedly, only 10% of the US population has gotten Covid in the past year and a half. That averages to “only” about 0.9% infected per month. With no vaccine."

You're not accounting for how diseases actually spread in real life. It's not a simple steady stream of new infections. Transmissions go in waves based upon changes in behavior and cohort mixing. Here's what that's looked like in Israel:

You can't simply take the total average and compare that to a specific period because there are wild swings depending on which specific time period you're looking at. Their peak was mid-January with a 7-day moving average of 8,300 new cases a day. That's a rate of 251,596 cases per month. Right now, they're seeing a moving average of 17 cases per day, or a rate of 516 cases per month. So are we comparing that January peak to the whole pandemic or the flatline of cases and deaths they're currently experiencing?

You also need to narrow that down to specific cohorts. Are we talking about hospital workers who are surrounded by sick people all day? Retail workers who encounter thousands of random strangers each day? Or elderly folks who see maybe 2 or 3 new people a month? Or someone who works from home and gets groceries delivered, seeing almost no one in person during the pandemic? Different groups will have wildly different risk profiles.

To simply smoothe every cohort and every day of the pandemic together and compare that to a more specific cohort in a more specific time period produces totally useless data because the comparison is completely invalid.

Here's an easier way to look at it: before the Pfizer vaccine, Israel's COVID-19 experience was the same as all their neighbors. Cases and deaths went up, they went down, but there was always a baseline maintained through the fluctuations. After vaccinating most of their population, Israel now has no COVID-19. It's gone. All their neighbors? Same baseline as before, same fluctuations as before. Some are seeing cases and deaths hold steady. Some are seeing them rise. But in Israel, COVID-19 is gone. That's pretty simple.

But in Israel, COVID-19 is GONE, that's pretty simple?

Oh yeah it's gone, lol, do you think so? Where are you coming from? You're paid for by Bill Gates?

The poster of "Urgent Warning From Israel etc" who lives in Israel think C0VID-19 unnecessary vaccine for bug that not really pandemic, hello? Supposedly nobody killed by SAR-C0V-2 alone in the whole wideworld. Now people that didn't die of C0VID-19 will die from the mRNA spike protein biochemical they're injecting as their white blood corpuscles fight off the foreign spike protein in their bodies , some who'd survive will be walking around with nano tech transponder, how about that?

Thanks for a thoughtful response. I extrapolated using averages only to raise a flag of concern, though, not to attempt an accurate model of the propagation of the disease. 2.9% in about a month just seems too high, for a cohort that is supposedly protected by masks and social distancing protocols and draconian lockdowns, and now vaccines as well.

“Their peak was mid-January with a 7-day moving average of 8,300 new cases a day. That’s a rate of 251,596 cases per month.”

Israel has a population of about 9 million people, so that amounts to a monthly rate at peak-Covid of 2.8%, about the same as that post-vaccinated group. That makes the number seem rather unimpressive. How much higher typically is the rate of Covid cases among the unvaccinated of this “high risk cohort”? How much higher is their Covid death rate, compared to the general population?

“But in Israel, COVID-19 is gone. That’s pretty simple.”

Or, according to your graph, it’s roughly back to what it was in June of 2020, sans vaccine. Is that because the disease hadn’t yet spread much there by that time, or they didn’t test as much back then, or the testing protocols were different, or perhaps there is some seasonality to the disease? Not so simple.