Thanks for a thoughtful response. I extrapolated using averages only to raise a flag of concern, though, not to attempt an accurate model of the propagation of the disease. 2.9% in about a month just seems too high, for a cohort that is supposedly protected by masks and social distancing protocols and draconian lockdowns, and now vaccines as well.
“Their peak was mid-January with a 7-day moving average of 8,300 new cases a day. That’s a rate of 251,596 cases per month.”
Israel has a population of about 9 million people, so that amounts to a monthly rate at peak-Covid of 2.8%, about the same as that post-vaccinated group. That makes the number seem rather unimpressive. How much higher typically is the rate of Covid cases among the unvaccinated of this “high risk cohort”? How much higher is their Covid death rate, compared to the general population?
“But in Israel, COVID-19 is gone. That’s pretty simple.”
Or, according to your graph, it’s roughly back to what it was in June of 2020, sans vaccine. Is that because the disease hadn’t yet spread much there by that time, or they didn’t test as much back then, or the testing protocols were different, or perhaps there is some seasonality to the disease? Not so simple.
It hadn’t really hit Israel yet in June of 2020, but it started June at 50 cases per day and ramped up every single day in June so that by the end of June they were over 500 new cases per day and over 1,500 new cases per day by the middle of July. After that, the lowest it ever got was in November when they got back down to 570 new cases and 4 deaths per day.
Now they’re at 17 new cases per day and 0 deaths. The moving average has been under 50 new cases per day since May 9th. And that’s with all their restrictions and precautions now gone. COVID’s done there.