Posted on 06/13/2021 1:04:11 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University and railway expert, recently expressed alarm at the unsustainable finances of China’s high-speed railway system, remarking that it was an economic “gray rhino.” The term is used to refer to an obvious yet ignored threat.
Beijing Jiaotong University is China’s top university for transportation science and technology, according to an academic ranking conducted by ShanghaiRanking Consultancy in 2018. The school receives funding from China Railway (formerly China’s Ministry of Railways, now a state-owned firm), city governments, and metro companies all around China.
Zhao has worked for Beijing Jiaotong University since 1982 and has led several rail projects with the former Ministry of Railways.
On Jan. 28, Zhao published a commentary on Caixin, a Chinese business magazine. The article, titled “Beware of the Gray Rhino That Is the High-Speed Railway,” pointed out that the development of the country’s railways was not healthy, given the high investment and low returns.
“The Lanzhou-Urumqi high-speed rail has the capability to operate more than 160 trains every day in each direction, but only has four running daily [due to lack of passengers]. The revenue is not even enough to pay the electricity bill,” Zhao wrote.
Urumqi is the capital of Xinjiang, a provincial-level region located in the most northwestern reaches of the country. This area is relatively underdeveloped and lacks road infrastructure.
Lanzhou City is the capital of neighboring Gansu Province. Ground transportation connecting Xinjiang to the rest of China must pass through Lanzhou.
Zhao explained that despite the existence of a high-speed rail, the trains are unable to transport cargo. Instead, for cross-province transport, the Xinjiang region relies on trucks. “China’s high-speed railway can only transport passengers, not goods. And certainly not tanks or missiles,” Zhao wrote.
Zhao elaborated that the trackbed, tracks, power supply system, train cars, and other parts of the high-speed railway system are designed for transporting light weight and cannot support goods transport.
Xinjiang’s reliance on trucks has caused heavy air pollution. “Diesel trucks are the largest emitters of PM [particulate matter] 2.5, and trucks that run on natural gas emit even more NOx [oxides of nitrogen] than diesel trucks,” Zhao wrote.
The railway expert added that this is the case not just in Xinjiang, but in the whole of China.
“The total operating length of China’s rails is only 130,000 kilometers. 29,000 of them are high-speed rail that can only transport passengers,” Zhao wrote.
The Chinese regime has touted the high-speed rail as a great service to the populace. But Zhao said the reality is: the annual average transportation density of China’s high-speed railway is 17 million people per kilometer, compared with 90 million people per kilometer in Japan’s Tokaido Shinkansen rail.
In addition, ticket prices for riding the high-speed train is three times that of normal trains. The majority of Chinese are not willing to fork out the extra money for the speed and convenience of high-speed rail.
Despite knowing that there is not enough market demand for high-speed rail, the Chinese regime plans to continue investing in 2019.
Japanese business magazine Nikkei reported on Jan. 21 that China Railway plans to invest 850 billion yuan (about $126.25 billion) on railways this year. With this investment, China will build 6,800 kilometers of railways, 3,200 km of which will be high-speed rails.
Zhao also noted that the railway system is in huge debt following the construction of high-speed rails, ballooning from 476.8 billion yuan in 2005 to 4.72 trillion yuan ($701 billion) in 2016. “Even without considering the operation costs, the total revenue from ticket sales is not enough to pay interest on the loans,” Zhao wrote.
“By the end of September 2018, the total debt of China Railway had reached 5.28 trillion yuan ($784.2 billion).
“To maintain its operations, China Railway has to apply for new loans [from Chinese banks] to pay its old debts, and rely on financial subsidies [from the central government].”
I rode that train right after it was completed from Beijing back home to Hong Kong.
15 years later, knowing what I know about the way maintenance corners are cut and shoddy repair work over looked, I’d fly. The trains were great, when they were new!
This is like the ghost cities, commie central command decision making devoid of economic reality. But then again, since the CHICOMS copy everything, maybe they just stole the idea from our Amtrac...
Americans will buy enough cheap toys to keep CCP running.
The condition is actually, or nearly, the same with most “high speed” rail routes in the world. Few if any can be run on their own fare revenues.
Trains started to be used from passengers in the first decade of the 1800s.
Airplanes are about a century more modern than trains. Even the “motor vehicles”, including the large multi-passenger variety (buses) are more modern than trains, again by nearly a century. Yet the nostalgia for trains persist.
They - passenger trains - have their greatest and most efficient use in very large densely populated and connected urban areas (the northeast corridor from between Boston and Washington D.C., for instance). Outside of that nearly always financial black holes.
But, but, but... I thought China was offering to build a high speed rail all the way to the US - AND connect our cities...
A better plan for the US is to build an interconnected system that people WANT to use... and NO that is not going from Miami to Tallahassee in two hours and having ‘important’ people use it and the rest of us use cars... make it enjoyable to use, cost effective and comfortable.
Speed freaks can go to an airport and fly.
On the upside of a financial collapse in the Chicom HSR system they could end up with the world’s most advanced network of bike trails.
Exactly. trains are 1840 technology.
Nowadays are loosing money everywhere and have any use only in very densely populated areas.
E.G. Spain had a very aggressive high speed train program, which basically bankrupted the whole nation.
I rode the fast train , first class, form Shanghai to Beijing 25 months ago.
It was fantastic.
One reason for low ridership is the Social Credit system which forbids people with low scores from riding the trains.
A better plan for the US is to build an interconnected system that people WANT to use.
—
Its called the Interstate Highway System
The US has the ideal mix. Interstates, airlines, freight rail and river barge.
In both cases, the ridership will no doubt be a small fraction of the Interstate highways along the same routes. Yet the rail ridership is projected to be enough to be profitable. In those limited cases, population density and geography are thought to be favorable enough to make the economics work.
China builds entire cities where no one lives. They build subways and highways and they are not used. Youtube has videos of subway stations in the middle of no where. No town or city nearby.
We have the train to nowhere in California.
Graft is worldwide.
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