[BeauBo]

A little uptick in deaths over this last week.

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths have all been pretty steadily downward since mid-April (which I attribute to Herd Immunity effects beginning to manifest, as predicted by Dr. Makary at John Hopkins).

But cases now seem to be levelling off, and deaths even ticked up a touch.

[gas_dr]

Its the end of the week variance, it seems to be trending in the proper direction.

[gas_dr]

Also, remember that Florida now reports only Fridays in a batch so I dont think Worldometer has a great way of handling this so there is always the Florida spike on Friday that is absent the other days

Florida website shows about 12,000 cases last week which averages to 1500 a day or so — so really quite a way down in the sunshine state as well. Agree with herd immunity. If you look at the Florida DOH website they have a nice report of weekly cases, percent positivity and vaccination. Shockingly, the more vaccinated a country is the less the positivity is.

This will no doubt cause out friends the science denier to have a fit an will then try to explain to us how there is no correlation.

But all in all the laws of statistics and science seem to be again reverified with this data set.

[DoodleBob]

I post this from time-to-time lest anyone think surges and declines are due to new variants or vaccines. To be sure, maybe those elements are at play. But we should not forget there is likely a SEASONAL DIMENSION to cases and fatalities.

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

Viruses gonna virus. Even non-viruses gonna non-virus.

If I am right, and a rise occurs this fall, I suspect it'll mean this bug will be with us forever - like influenza, it'll be a highly contagious but more fatal (case fatality rate of about 1.8% vs 0.2% for influenza) and seasonal annoyance.