Lumber mania: How supply constraints in B.C. are colliding with insatiable demand in the U.S. to push lumber prices through the roof

The Globe & Mail ^ | May 14, 2021 | Brent Jang

[rickmichaels]

Russ Permann has watched lumber prices soar so high that even a small pile of softwood is now viewed as a precious commodity, worthy of a punch line.

“I’m getting lumber memes in e-mails from friends and family,” said Mr. Permann, a wholesaler who is chief executive officer at Taiga Building Products Ltd.

One friend messaged him a joke about a guy driving a pickup truck filled with two-by-fours in the back. The reaction of a bystander? “Look, everybody, there’s a millionaire!”

The psychology behind lumber markets has changed dramatically over the past year, catching the industry by surprise, from producers and wholesalers to retailers and home builders.

Two-by-fours made from Western spruce, pine and fir sold this week for a record US$1,640 for 1,000 board feet, up 355 per cent over the past year, according to industry newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.

Industry experts trace the unprecedented lumber rally to supply constraints in British Columbia just as demand surged in the summer of 2020. When lumber prices rose during times of tight supplies in the past, B.C. played a crucial role as a swing producer that could ramp up output. But a shortage of logs to process means that B.C. producers haven’t been able to lead the way to restore stability in the market.

“B.C. used to be an engine that you could turn up in times like this, but we don’t have that option anymore,” Mr. Permann said.

As Canada’s largest softwood lumber producer, B.C. accounted last year for 40 per cent of the country’s output.

Demand did soften during the early stages of the pandemic as consumers delayed projects around the home while housing starts also went through a lull.

[hecticskeptic]

Just a year ago lumber was running about $400 a thousand board feet. Today the price is at $1086 a thousand board feet.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This was posted supposedly last week?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I’m guessing it was posted 6 weeks ago. Since then the price has hit just shy of $1,700 until falling back this week to about $1,560.

[Truth29]

"I've seen a lot of people freaking out over the cost of lumber. As a 12 year saw mill worker let me tell you what's really going on. The mills are not getting the logs to produce at a rate necessary. Not because of trucking of lack of loggers wanting to work. It's not because of a economic reason as I have heard many economists saying. It's all due to a fact that environmental groups have held the industry hostage through court litigation. As soon as we get loggers in to harvest a cut, environmental groups run and slap a stop work order. Within a week the loggers are forced to pull out equipment by the courts. Our mill was forced to close down last June because we couldn't keep enough wood coming in to run. We had 7 million board feet bought that was held up in litigation. Two million already cut and stacked, but unable to be touched. The way the laws are written for environmental suits it's a guaranteed win for them. We also watched six of these cuts go up in flames about two weeks after the law suits were filed. This is a created situation as it is now affecting the market to this degree. Just a year ago lumber was running about $400 a thousand board feet. Today the price is at $1086 a thousand board feet. It's a socialist strategy introduced by men to break the industry, don't let them try telling you otherwise."

Interesting report and leads to companies being unwilling to run the risks against the greenies who want to do more than break the logging industry. They want to break civilization for their Marxist dictatorship ideals.

[gloryblaze]

I recently sold timber for an amazing price. Lumber mills are craving timber.

That is the very first I've heard that. Mostly, on-the-stump is unchanged, with mills backed up with inventory - at least around here.

[BereanBrain]

The shortages are real because they are manufactured. it’s for EVERYTHING. Like condiments, or lumber, or paper bags, or gasoline disruption. GOAL: INFLATION: REASON: If you are capital/goods rich, your relative wealth rises. Those who are not sink lower into serfdom. Also, easier for the Gov to overprint money.

[Revel]

OSB is up almost 500% since covid.

[bk1000]

“ That is the very first I’ve heard that. Mostly, on-the-stump is unchanged, with mills backed up with inventory”

We had around ten bidders. The winning bid was WAY above the others, which were typical bids for saw timber. Buyer said he needed to put his guys to work. I assume he had a mill waiting for the wood they cut, but that is his problem.

[Boiler Plate]

Canada was hit with the Lumber Perfect Storm. Supply and production is going to move back to the US as Trump had wanted all along.

https://www.sbcmag.info/news/2019/nov/why-lumber-supply-shifting-canada-us-south

[gloryblaze]

....The winning bid was WAY above the others, which were typical bids for saw timber...

Kudos!!!

[Organic Panic]

In the PNW, Oregon especially, several old time mills have been sold and converted to hemp processing.

https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2021/may/14/entrepreneurs-unveil-plans-convert-former-sierra-p/

[Sequoyah101]

I won’t debate you since I am calling what I actually see. I just went by the lumber yard today an it is completely stocked.

I did not look at or for drywall. They dig gypsum up with bulldozers here in NW Oklahoma. If the giverment would end the unemployment extensions and subsidy the product would be made.

[Mariner]

Weyerhaeuser corporation (WY) owns outright over 10 million acres of US timberland. They have 99yr leases on another 14+ million acres in Canada.

All they do is grow logs, then covert them to lumber in their own saw mills.

I can’t imagine a better stock purchase.

[neefer]

It was posted a week ago, but he didn’t give a time frame for the prices. Not sure is he’s in Canada or the U.S.

[Uncle Lonny]

Rumor has it that the gold in Fort Knox is gone and replaced by lumber cause lumber is more valuable.

[Mr. Blond]

BC found it was cheaper to send their raw logs to China to be milled. Adding supply chain complexity, on top of a closed border.

[Mean Daddy]

Wife and I signed papers with our house builder back in March 2020. Several months in, our builder said that if we’d have waited, the price of our house would have went up $20-30k.