Posted on 05/06/2021 8:35:13 AM PDT by Conserv
(CNN)Just one week after the Census Bureau announced which states would be gaining and losing congressional seats before the 2022 election, the dominoes are beginning to fall -- and the news is not good for Democrats desperately clinging to their single-digit majority in the House of Representatives.
The big blow came last Friday, when Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, one of just seven Democrats who currently represents a district former President Donald Trump won in 2020, announced she would not run again. While Bustos didn't mention redistricting -- and the news that Illinois' delegation will be forced to shrink by a seat before 2022 -- it's hard not see that, plus the fact that there was no obvious statewide office for her to run for, as contributing to her decision to step aside. While Democrats control the line-drawing process in Illinois, it will be tough to draw a Democratic-friendly district in the western Illinois area that Bustos' 17th district covers. (Trump won the 17th in 2020 and 2016.) Which could cost the party a seat that Democrats can ill afford to lose. And while the Bustos retirement was the headline news out of the 2022 campaign over the last few days, Florida Rep. Charlie Crist's (D) decision to, again, run for governor -- which he announced on Tuesday -- creates another problem for House Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
And Crist isn't the only Florida Democrat looking at statewide office. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) has said she is considering a run against Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in 2022. And Rep. Val Demings (D) is considering gubernatorial and Senate bids.
A trio of Democratic open seats in Florida would be a massive gift to Republican redistricters looking to improve on the party's current 16-11 majority over Democrats -- and with a new seat coming to the state after reapportionment.
Another state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania, where the state's open Senate seat -- Pat Toomey (R) is retiring -- is attracting interest from a number of House Democrats, most notably Rep. Conor Lamb who represents a western Pennsylvania seat that Biden won in 2020 but Trump carried in 2016. If Lamb runs, his 17th district could be carved up by the state's line-drawers -- control of redistricting is split between the two parties -- who will have to find a way to reduce the congressional delegation by a seat in 2022.
The Senate candidacy of Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio and the possible Senate candidacy of Rep. Ron Kind in Wisconsin are two other major concerns for Democrats, as both states lost a seat in reapportionment and redistricters will be on the hunt for districts they can compress or eliminate altogether.
Much of this is par for the course in the first election after the decennial redistricting process -- especially in states slated to lose a seat (or more) or where the opposition party controls all levers of the line-drawing process.
But every retirement matters that much more to Democrats this election cycle, because their majority is so remarkably thin. At the moment, Democrats control 218 seats to 212 for Republicans, although that margin is expected to grow by a seat next week when Louisiana Rep.-elect Troy Carter (D) is formally sworn in.
Then there's the ominous cloud of history for Democrats to contend with. According to Gallup, the average numbers of seats lost for a president's party in a midterm election since 1946 is 25. Since World War II, the average seat loss is 23 for a president's party in their first term.
Combine it all and Democrats were going to have a hard time holding their majority under the best of circumstances. When you factor in the weight of history and their recent series of problematic retirements (with more likely to come!), the majority looks very, very imperiled.
Yawn. Who is counting the votes? That’s all that matters.
Way to suppress our vote.
Some of you here just LOVE to do that.
“...and Hillary Clinton won the seat by 3 points in 29016”
Bitch never goes away.
At this point in time I’ll believe it when I see it.
As I’ve said before, I’m not sure what is worse, the DEMONCRATS stealing the sElection or knowing that 80 Million of my fellow American Citizens actually Voted for Joementia Xiden and his Illegitimate Running Mate Commiela Harris.
”14th Amendment, Section 2: Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age,(See Note 15) and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State [emphasis added]."
Insights welcome.
That being said, the only non-violent way I can see out of this situation is to take back the GOP starting at the county and then state level. Once the vote counters are legitimate again, the federal government can be recovered from the 2020 coup.
We will have to win back 4 senate seats to be successful. One or 2 won’t do it. There’s Az., Ga., Nv., and NH. We’ll probably lose Pennsylvania. If we can steal one from a blue stat it will mean something’s up. It could very well depend on cleaning up the voter rolls as statewide election are not subject to redistricting. Republican legislations in any of the 4 will help big time.
Even with our small city election we completed on Saturday, where the printed ballot had the actual names I selected rather than some cryptic coding I saw last Fall, I still don't know for sure my votes were counted properly.
I doubt it was 80 million and they were not voting for anyone, they were voting against Trump. There might have been 10 million who voted for the dem just because they’re dems
Yep, the great sElection of a fake pResident.
Not necessarily. Gains in Texas or Florida can easily be offset by the Dems redrawing districts in New York, Illinois, and California.
Gee, so only disenfranchised male voters are counted? What about disenfranchised female voters?
Bustos district has 11 counties and parts of 3 other counties.
It only took 4 RAT counties containing urban areas for Bustos to win handily.
it seems Illinois could merge all of Bustos’ district into the adjoining districts, diluting the repub votes.
Yeah, the same so-called troll who told you and everyone else here that the Deep State was *never* going to allow Trump to be re-elected, after I was told overwhelming votes for Trump would win the day. I am not the only one repeating the message that the DEMs are in power, so why should we believe we will ever have a fair POTUS election again?
Is anyone who disagrees with you a troll?
Stop with the name calling and respond
...and Michigan.
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