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Beijing has pierced Washington’s deterrence bubble. How can the US recover?
Federation for Defense of Democracies ^ | 9 Apr, 2021 | Craig Singleton

Posted on 04/10/2021 5:25:00 AM PDT by MtnClimber

The fishing vessels arrived one and two at a time, dropping anchor off the disputed Whitsun Reef near the Philippines. As the Chinese-flagged fleet grew larger, the vessels tethered themselves together, hunkering down for a gray zone standoff that has captured policymaker interest throughout the Pacific region.

And with that, Beijing burst Washington’s deterrence bubble.

In congressional testimony last month, officials advocated for new, multibillion-dollar investments in long-range strike capabilities and a sophisticated missile system in Guam. These new platforms, it was argued, are essential to reassuring our regional allies and deterring China.

And yet, the Whitsun spectacle lays bare that Washington’s continued embrace of a costly, conventional deterrence strategy is alone unlikely to prevent Beijing from achieving many of its security objectives.

What’s more, China is banking on America’s prioritization of traditional deterrence at the expense of a robust, and potentially more effective, asymmetric strategy.

No doubt, American military supremacy has deterred China from achieving many of its goals. Nevertheless, Beijing has continued its incremental march forward in Hong Kong, in the Taiwan Strait and at various overseas ports.

Washington’s predictable non-response to China’s gray zone activities in places like Whitsun does more than erode U.S. credibility. It increases the likelihood of a military confrontation by permitting China to solidify its gains while neutralizing our diplomatic and economic leverage. Thus, through a process of elimination, military force becomes the only viable option to resolving hardened disputes.

Building back better deterrence requires an entirely new approach. While the military should prepare for the possibility of a traditional conflict in the future, it must mobilize now for the asymmetric war that we are already fighting. At the center of that mobilization must be a clear-eyed view of America’s desired end states, which, contrary to the White Houses’ rhetoric, cannot be

(Excerpt) Read more at fdd.org ...


TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: ccp; china
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1 posted on 04/10/2021 5:25:00 AM PDT by MtnClimber
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To: MtnClimber
Where is sleepy Joe? Wake up sleepy Joe!

"C'mon man, they're not bad people."

2 posted on 04/10/2021 5:25:12 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of Colorado scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

Actually: “C’mon man, they’ve already paid me off!”


3 posted on 04/10/2021 5:27:16 AM PDT by no_go_lie
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To: MtnClimber

The Butchers of Beijing know that there’s nothing to stop them from seizing the South China Sea...attacking Taiwan...etc. for the next 3.5 years.


4 posted on 04/10/2021 5:27:56 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Trump: "They're After You. I'm Just In The Way")
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To: MtnClimber
Building back better deterrence


5 posted on 04/10/2021 5:30:14 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy ("I see you did something -- why you so racist?")
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To: ClearCase_guy

C’mon man, we can trust our new military with the purple headed trannies!


6 posted on 04/10/2021 5:32:07 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of Colorado scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: Gay State Conservative

7 posted on 04/10/2021 5:34:13 AM PDT by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: MtnClimber
The United States is not meant to recover. It is not in the plans that the United States recover. The United States of America is now in the full control of its enemies. The only person in a position of leadership who wanted the United States of America to prosper was President Donald Trump. He was kicked out. AS Johnny Cash said, "Cry, cry, cry."

Sleepy Joe's advisors are not asleep. They know exactly what they are doing. And why they are doing it.

8 posted on 04/10/2021 5:38:12 AM PDT by sport
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To: MtnClimber

Try to understand what is really happening in the Philippines. The Chinese have essentially bought the Philippine timber, fishing and large sectors of their agricultural industries. They have also bought off and comprimised Philippine elites and politicians. Hence no real resistance to overt sovereignity claims in Philippine waters. The Philippines is being transformed into a Chinese colony. Soon Subic and what is left of Clark field will be operational Chinese bases.The US would have to retake political and military control of the Philippines if it wished to stop the Chinese. The American people cannot be expected to make a sacrifice in blood and treasure to reverse what the Filipino people have allowed to happen. America’s line of defense in the Pacific is much further east.


9 posted on 04/10/2021 5:40:51 AM PDT by allendale
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To: allendale

Just like in the last US election, half the people voted against Duterte.

Duterte (China) now owns the Congress and the Supreme Court. Just like Biden, China paid for Duterte’s election.


10 posted on 04/10/2021 6:04:48 AM PDT by Starcitizen (So Indian H1B crybaby trash runs Free Republic moderation??? Seems so. )
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To: MtnClimber

China is the world’s preeminent industrial power.

Its military might will soon be unmatchable.

The Japanese approach of shifting production out of China is the only way to restrain the Chinese tiger.


11 posted on 04/10/2021 6:09:39 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: allendale

Corazon Aquino wanted us gone thirty years ago...actions have consequences.


12 posted on 04/10/2021 6:40:11 AM PDT by M1903A1 ("We shed all that is good and virtuous for that which is shoddy and sleazy...and call it progress" )
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To: MtnClimber

Joe Biden is a Chinese puppet. Why should we be surprised that China is now being more open about its scheme for world domination?


13 posted on 04/10/2021 6:44:30 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org)
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To: exDemMom

GHWB was the original Chinese puppet.


14 posted on 04/10/2021 6:45:02 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: MtnClimber

.


15 posted on 04/10/2021 6:53:53 AM PDT by sauropod (Chance favors the prepared mind.)
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To: dfwgator

One doesn’t necessarily disagree, but please elucidate.


16 posted on 04/10/2021 7:00:40 AM PDT by OKSooner (Hey Boehner, go smoke another Camel, and have a big ol' glass of bourbon with it too.)
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To: MtnClimber

If they are “only fishing vessels” then the Philippine Navy can arrest and sink a few of them, and it will only be a case of criminal trespass and a minor diplomatic incident.

Two can play the same game.


17 posted on 04/10/2021 7:05:41 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: MtnClimber

The defeat of the Spanish Armada was done with a swarm of smaller more maneuverable British ships...China studies real history...not the 1619 made up crap!


18 posted on 04/10/2021 7:07:12 AM PDT by mdmathis6
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To: OKSooner

He looked the other way after Tiananmen Square.


19 posted on 04/10/2021 7:30:40 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: allendale

The Philippines have always had strong guerilla movements. Against the Spanish, US and even the government in Manila. If China were to move into the Philippines I thing the Manila government would fall. China might find itself in an Afghanistan type situation. They want to be the leading world power they’d better be ready to bleed like we have.


20 posted on 04/10/2021 7:36:55 AM PDT by Tallguy
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