Posted on 03/29/2021 8:46:12 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
The uptick in cases is going to be fighting a strong tide of vaccination, and already widespread natural immunity.
There does not seem to be much more dry tinder laying around for a big fire to burn out of control, after this Winter’s big spread.
Most of the high contact people have probably already been exposed.
Most of the most vulnerable have already had a first shot of vaccine - 72.8% of Americans 65 or older. Essentially all Nursing Home residents have been fully vaccinated.
So cases are not going to pack the kind of fatality rates that they did in the past.
COVID’s legs are getting wobbly - soon it will be going down for the count in the USA.
Wow... the breakout of the decline in hospital admissions by age group correlates nicely with the higher percentage of vaccinations among the older age groups.
EXCELLENT INFORMATION!
Thanks
A heads up. I watch the death numbers closely. I look for them exceeding the previous week, same day. Today was the first day in several that deaths did not exceed the same day’s previous week.
However. Today’s missed by about 29 deaths. Los Angeles and San Diego did not report. Unusual for a Monday. They would easily have added to 33 or so, judging prior weeks.
The only thing preventing a nationwide spike is Texas deaths are falling properly. The California variant or others likely vaccine resistant has not reached Texas yet. NY’s numbers are spiking, too. Probably from overseas import.
Over 70% of elderly are now vaccinated. The prime death targets for the virus are mostly eliminated, if you believe the vaccines can stop the variants.
The graphs say they can’t. The slope of decline of deaths began in January before there was any sort of wide vaccine distribution. That slope has not steepened. In fact, in recent days it has flattened and is doing upticks.
This can’t happen if the vaccinations “worked”. But it is happening.
There is talk of mutations that would nullify the vaccines. Then the burden of booster shots would be necessary before another variant comes along. Wait until a variant comes along that is more deadly.
“...The slope of decline of deaths began in January before there was any sort of wide vaccine distribution. That slope has not steepened....”
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Look, You can do some research on vaccine distributions by the week and you’ll see that many millions of doses were distributed starting in the week of December 4th and accelerating into January. The elderly and folks in nursing homes were major priority targets during that time. You can convince yourself that the vaccines haven’t had an impact, but the facts say otherwise.
On the contrary, the slope should have steepened, even if you revise history of rollout. There were only a few million out in early Feb, and many of those were NOT the elderly, they were “essential personnel”.
Have a look at the death count curve shape of last year from the Northeast, about April. It looks much the same. You’re going to be hard pressed to revise history to a vaccine rollout in April 2020.
Look, I have no doubt at all they did great work on the vaccines. They are likely very effective against the original strain. But that’s not what’s in society now.
It’s useful to examine the death curve of other countries. The UK DOES have a very steep descent. They were very strict about border control/travel and South Africa/Manaus/California variants didn’t get in. Their descent is near vertical.
Ours should be. It’s not.
Have a look at France and Russia. They were no less aggressive about vaccinations, and their death decline is even more shallow than the US.
The great danger is the sheer number of virus particles now in existance. Mutation is not a life process, it’s a statistical process.
Most mutations are not dangerous, even less dangerous then the original. But it only takes one that is horrible.
“On the contrary, the slope should have steepened, even if you revise history of rollout. There were only a few million out in early Feb, and many of those were NOT the elderly, they were “essential personnel”....”
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Look, I’m sorry but YOU are confusing the “early February” vaccine situation with the December situation. I’ll give you one link and there are many more links to the historical COVID-19 vaccine story. Believe what you want or believe the historical record.
Your link is allocation, not distribution.
But I suspect you knew that and hoped it would not be seen.
You’re just way out of control on this. The decline slope was defined before vaccines were widely distributed. Just like April last year. Why is this hard to accept? The slope of decline is the first derivative of the data set — a natural decline — if we call mitigation measures “natural”. They were used in April of last year and how very odd the gaussian curve looks so similar.
You’ll also need to explain the steepness of the UK curve, with their AstraZeneca clearly working against their southern UK variant. They were lucky they kept the others out.
For a good time, have a look at Brazil’s spike. They are getting vaccines from China and others. Not stopping the Manaus variant.
Russia has administered 1/5 the doses per 100 population, France less than 40%.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
And you can't assume a direct relationship between vaccines and cases or even deaths. Behavior plays a large role, and the USA is rapidly opening. Even here in CA, stores, gyms, restaurants and bars are opening up, sporting events are being held, the sun is out and parks and beaches are full. Kids are going back to school and playing sports (with bleachers full of proud parents), commute traffic is back to at least 70% of pre-pandemic. People are moving on from social distancing and sitting at home. They are going out, getting back to work and meeting up with friends and family. That is going to shape the curves.
There is a VERY strong inverse relationship between vaccination and COVID infection. Vaccinated people are NOT testing positive or getting sick. The vaccines are working very well, even in CA against the "CA Variant".
“Your link is allocation, not distribution.”
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Oh, goodness, there’s all kinds of information readily available on the internet to show how many doses were distributed each week and each day and how many doses were administered each weekday. If you insist upon your belief that widespread vaccinations didn’t start until February, feel free to do that. I tried to point in the direction of actual knowledge, but I guess you don’t want to be faced with such actual facts. I give up on you.
P.S. AND there’s all kinds of information readily available on the Free Republic boards themself to show how many doses were distributed each week and each day and how many doses were administered each weekday.
Cases in the USA peaked on 8 January and then declined steeply, but the steep drop in deaths was not until February - after Nursing Home residents finished their first shots. Over 40% of the deaths last year were from that small, vulnerable group (>1.5 million).
Israel leads the world in vaccination, and their cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been falling sharply - like 50% week over week.
The decline in COVID hospital admissions among the elderly has also been observed on the ground, by Freeper Arkfreepdom.
Now that 72.8% of Americans 65 or older have had a first shot, an upcoming drop in death rates is already baked into the cake.
A study from Israel reported that 4 weeks after a first Pfizer shot, folks were essentially bulletproof from dying of COVID.
We are on track to substantially finish first shots for the elderly in April, and that is why eligibility is being thrown open.
This week, we will pass 100 million with a first shot. 100 million was the Operation Warp Speed estimate of how many (prioritized) people needed to be vaccinated, to control the disease, from a serious Public Health point of view (deaths and hospitalizations).
We are transitioning from fighting COVID, to simply beating it..
“Over 70% of the elderly are now vaccinated.”
True, for at least a first shot. A bit under 50% fully vaccinated.
There is about a 4 week lag between the first shot, and the main reduction in mortality. It starts to kick in during the second week, and grows.
The pace of vaccination continues to grow with increasing supply. From a million shots per day in January, we are now running 2.5 - 3 million per day. The elderly have been gradually edging out of harms way, but April will see them really drop out of the equation.
We are running roughly 2-3 months behind Israel, proportionally.
A day in the life of Doug Gaines...
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3946189/posts?page=124
good man. God Bless Douglas Keith Gaines. R.I.P., sir. love
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