Posted on 03/24/2021 2:19:37 AM PDT by Libloather
BEIJING - Growing demand for electric car batteries will cause prices of the main materials to surge, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a March 18 note.
That in turn will drive prices of batteries higher by about 18%, affecting the total profit of electric car makers since the battery accounts for about 20% to 40% of the vehicle cost, the Goldman analysts said.
While the report didn’t give specific price targets for the commodities, the analysts’ model predicted a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium for electric battery makers. That of cobalt would also double, while the cost of nickel would rise by 60%.
“Prices for the three main natural resources have been rising since the start of 2021,” the Goldman report said. “We believe that in order to promote sustainable EV industries, some countries may consider implementing policies to increase national stockpiles.”
A new type of battery
Limited availability of nickel suitable for car batteries could even accelerate a shift to another kind of battery called lithium iron phosphate (LFP), the report said. Tesla and Chinese start-up Xpeng are among automakers already using this type of battery, which does not use nickel or cobalt but stores relatively less energy.
If nickel prices hit their historic high of $50,000 per tonne, that could add $1,250 to $1,500 per electric vehicle, which could hurt consumer demand for the cars, the analysts said.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
2035, California law says only new cars/trucks that are electric...can be sold as new vehicles in the state.
Even California cannot legislate away the principle of supply and demand.
Yes I really wouldn’t worry about it. Supply from China will be zero by then.
“At minimum the charging station should be installed on a dedicated 40-amp circuit, but if you want to future-proof your wiring, 50 or 60 amps is better.” from Green Car.
This will be a huge deterrent (or should be) for most. In many homes this will require a service upgrade or the addition of a sub-panel. It is my understanding many new homes are being installed with 400 amp service. When I built in the early 90s 200 amp service 40 slot panels were very typical. 40 slots fill up fast and homes older than 40 years were built with less.
There will be money to be made in the electrical trade.
Shortage of battery materials was entirely predictable considering the rush to switch over to electric vehicles. Another would be the strain/partial collapse of the electric power grid.
Electric cars make sense in urban settings and may have gone beyond that if allowed to compete in a truly free-market. But we could be looking at an economic and land-fill disaster of epic proportions.
Everyone should be bracing for rising costs for everything.
Current economic (and ‘colvid’) policy by the biden (harris) [0bama] administration is going to create hyperinflation.
Most of the homes older than 30 years out here in the West only have 100amp service. The utility will charge you an arm and a left one to upgrade the transformer. Here in Nevada they may even charge you a portion of the cost of upgrading the grid back to and including the power plant - that is rare but they have tried.
The mining must increase to meet demand. Good thing China abides by the Paris climate accords
Considering Tesla makes their own batteries wouldn’t it benefit them?
“can be sold as new vehicles in the state.”
I think the important word there is “new.” There was a point in history, in the ‘50’s, where small trucks were in such demand that a company started buying up 1950 Plymouths and making them into light trucks. My guess is that the needed infrastructure to convert all of California will not be in existence. Imagine the gas lines of 1973, but with electric charging. Companies will start refurbishing used cars. Also, the state will issue waivers to manufacturers who perform some obeisance to the Green God.
Interesting point, though. The more recent cars have lots of computers. One of the problems with those cars is the computers are individually expensive and are only manufactured for a short time, making the cars nearly impossible to repair. So, the most popular used cars will be much older. Possibly topping out at the early two-thousands.
Stupid policies will accelerate the abandonment of cities. Already, many companies in New York have said they will not return. They have farmed out their employees to suburbs and even different states. More and more employees will work from home and collect their pay in non-income tax states. De Blasio will become the symbol of stupid policies. The best thing about the Left is it will cancel itself.
“The mining must increase to meet demand. Good thing China abides by the Paris climate accords”
Considering that China’s participation in the accords is VOLUNTARY, it’s hard for them to not be in compliance.
Rat Party Headquarters has vowed to outlaw coal fired plants,gas fired plants,oil fired plants and nuclear plants. And yet there are *already* regular blackouts...and brownouts...in Kalifornia.
Foolish title. Anyone who wants the freedom of owning an automobile must prepare to hear the cost. The watermelon tyrants are demanding everyone buy them soon. And the Chinese have no problem truly destroying the environment and eating war to get the rare materials required.
Heck, here in the Northeast one hundred year old plus houses still have 60 and 100 amp service with knob and tube, push button switches, fuses, and ungrounded.
There are thousands of tons of nickel in 15+ year old Jets that will never fly again, but because they are still on the books for millions and they still have some life in them, nobody wants to scrap them.
Meanwhile, new airplanes with new Nickel parts (Airlines can get loans on those) are being cranked out at record rates, increasing the demand for Nickel.
The only real replacement for the Nickel in Airplane engines is Cobalt and high strength Cobalt Alloys are still 10 years off.
China’s knows this and their solution is to recolonize Africa.
As electric demand continues to climb there will obviously be more demand placed on power plants and the electric grid which can only be supplied by hydrocarbons such as natural gas. But regardless, demand will be difficult probably impossible to meet. So, we will need to fend for ourselves. Thereby, I’m installing a https://www.generac.com/
Increased battery costs, increased taxes on EVs (because they’re not using high-taxed gasoline), add in inflation because the Fed$Printer is running 24/7...EV cars should cost right about $47,000,000 each.
Some states have “outlawed” gasoline cars, meaning that normal people will no longer be able to afford to drive, and that the ruling elite will have their cars and we won’t.
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