Novavax stock soars after reporting positive Covid-19 vaccine data in the U.K.

Washington Business Journal ^ | 03/17/2021 | Sara Gilgore

[SeekAndFind]

Novavax Inc. saw its share price skyrocket, more than 25% at one point, since it released positive late-stage data for its experimental Covid-19 vaccine — results analysts have pointed to as promising for the company's future.

Shares have continued to rise since the Gaithersburg vaccine maker announced after the closing bell last Thursday that its coronavirus vaccine candidate was 96.4% effective against the original version of the virus, provided complete protection against severe cases and showed some efficacy against emerging variants, according to data from a late-stage clinical trial in the United Kingdom. The findings follow interim data that similarly drove up the stock in January.

Novavax's stock closed up 18% at $222.23 per share on Tuesday, compared with its closing price last Thursday of $187.63 per share. And that's more than 2,000% higher than where the company's stock was one year prior, at $9.50 apiece, which in turn was double the stock value at the start of 2020. So far on Wednesday, the stock has dipped a bit, trading down 2% at $217.24 as of a little after noon.

Novavax, which saw its trading volume well more than double the day after it released the U.K. results, now has a market cap of $16.06 billion.

The news not only moved the needle on Wall Street, but also signals that more good news could follow, according to analysts.

“We believe these data could be used for global licensure, in addition to supporting the soon-to-be completed U.K. EUA filing,” wrote analysts Charles Duncan and Pete Stavropoulos of Cantor Fitzgerald in a March 11 report. “These data are at least as good as our expectations that were recently outlined and represent one of the key value drivers.”

The pair also pointed to Novavax's interim data from the U.S. trial and emergency use authorizations from the U.K. and other countries. “We believe these results clearly demonstrate a differentiating and more-than-viable efficacy and safety profile (on top of improved distribution logistics) compared to current vaccines with EUA,” they wrote in the report.

That the vaccine candidate demonstrated 100% protection against severe forms of the disease “represented the most incremental takeaway relative to the previously reported interim analysis,” wrote analyst Mayank Mamtani of B. Riley Securities in his March 12 report.

Novavax, now in a rolling regulatory review process with multiple agencies including the Food and Drug Administration, is still running its late-stage study in the U.S. and Mexico. That trial, now underway with 30,000 volunteers enrolled after a delayed start, is expected to produce results sometime in the second quarter. But the company might not have to wait.

“We are hoping that the FDA will view the U.K. package as a potential basis for licensure, but we also are really close on the heels of that information with the U.S. trial and so there could be some hybrid of those two trials — but a very robust package to present regulators with respect to safety and efficacy of our vaccine,” said Dr. Gregory Glenn, head of research and development for Novavax, on the company's March 1 fourth-quarter earnings call.

Novavax advances its candidate as vaccines from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) are currently injected into arms and efforts to speed up the national rollout increase. It also comes as several European countries suspend inoculations with AstraZeneca’s (NASDAQ: AZN) vaccine because of concerns about blood clots, though it’s not clear that evidence backs that up.

[Old Yeller]

They’re positive this one will ultimately kill people.

[Mount Athos]

I was going to try to avoid the vaccine, but if it is absolutely required for international travel I may get one.

If I had to get one, I’m most curious about Novavax because of their more conventional approach.
It won’t be available in the US until May or later, I can wait.