Posted on 03/09/2021 10:02:44 AM PST by Capt. Tom
You might think that after a 12-month-stretch that has seen almost no cruising around the world, cruise lines would be cutting back on the number of new ships they have on order.
But that hasn’t been the case.
None of the world’s major cruise lines has canceled a single ship order since the coronavirus pandemic brought cruising to a halt in early 2020.
Indeed, in what may seem counterintuitive, many major lines are plowing ahead with plans to grow cabin capacity significantly over the coming years — even as they contend with the lingering effects of a worldwide pandemic on operations and bookings.
A TPG count of new ships on order at all major cruise lines found that there still are more than 100 new oceangoing vessels on the way — a significant sum considering the world’s major lines currently operate fewer than 300 ocean ships.
MSC Cruises alone has five giant new vessels on order for delivery by 2025, with options for six more for delivery between 2026 and 2030. This for a line that currently has just 18 vessels. Norwegian Cruise Line, which currently has 17 ships, has six more vessels on order for delivery by 2027. Royal Caribbean also has six ships on order. It currently operates 24 vessels.
MSC Cruises executive chairman Pierfrancesco Vago takes delivery of the 4,842-passenger MSC Virtuosa on Feb. 1, 2021, at a ceremony at the Chantiers de l’Atlantique shipyard in St. Nazaire, France. The ship now sits idle.
And then there’s fast-growing Viking, which has nearly a dozen ocean vessels on order as well as several river ships on order.
Other major lines that have new ships on the way include:
Princess Cruises (three ships) Disney Cruise Line (three ships) Celebrity Cruises (three ships) Carnival Cruise Line (one ship) Oceania Cruises (two ships) Regent Seven Seas Cruises (one ship)
Since the start of the coronavirus-caused industrywide shutdown, many of these lines have been cutting costs by shedding older ships. Carnival and Holland America have each removed four older vessels from their fleets in recent months, for instance, with some of the ships heading to scrapyards. Royal Caribbean has sold off two older vessels.
The lines also have negotiated delays in the delivery dates of new ships with shipyards for a number of vessels scheduled to arrive this year and next year.
But they have shied away from canceling new orders outright.
Cruise line executives say there’s a logic to their strategy. Cruise ships can take years to build, forcing cruise executives to forecast demand far in the future when ordering vessels. And their forecast now is that demand for cruises in three, five, 10 or even 20 years will be far higher than it is today.
Put simply: They need the ships, they think.
“There are plenty of new ships on order, but to be honest with you, they are going to be needed,” Arnold Donald, the CEO of the world’s largest cruise company, Carnival Corp., noted in October at a cruise conference. “There will be demand. There will be need for capacity. Shipbuilding will stay robust in terms of bringing new ships into the global fleets.”
Donald noted that only 30 million people in the world take a cruise each year — a small fraction of the 500 million people he said took some sort of vacation annually.
That number, he suggested, is likely to soar over the coming decades.
At the same cruise conference, Richard Fain, the chairman and CEO of the world’s second-largest cruise company, Royal Caribbean Group, also made clear that he expected demand for cruising to grow strongly in the long term, resulting in a need for more ships.
Wonder of the Seas The first block of a new Royal Caribbean ship scheduled for delivery in 2022, Wonder of the Seas, was lowered into place at a shipyard in 2019.
“This is not (a situation where) the industry is going to tail off,” Fain said. “I think what you’re going to see is the industry will continue to grow. Once we’re past this crisis, people will see the value of cruising.”
Among the ships that Royal Caribbean has on order is Wonder of the Seas, which will be the new world’s biggest cruise ship when it debuts in 2022. Forecast to measure around 230,000 tons, it’s been under construction at the Chantiers de l’Atlantique shipyard in St. Nazaire, France, since 2019.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings president and CEO Frank Del Rio also has made comments about his company’s commitment to stay the course with new ship orders.
“We think that we will continue to grow as we bring on these nine incredible ships that we have on order,” Del Rio said in November during a conference call with Wall Street analysts, referring to vessels on order for the line’s Norwegian, Oceania and Regent brands.
In the short term, all the above lines are facing a situation where they have too many ships. They all have said that when cruising resumes, they will restart with just a few vessels at first, leaving most of their ships on hiatus. They then will add a few more ships to operations every month as they find their footing with both new health protocols and also customer demand, they have said.
But the consensus in the industry is that pent-up demand for cruising and favorable demographics will mean a relatively quick rebound to the days of all ships sailing and sailing full.
In the meantime, newly competed ships keep piling up. Just last month, MSC Cruises took delivery of its 18th vessel, the 4,842-passenger MSC Virtuosa. It currently sits idle at a dock in St. Nazaire, France, the shipbuilding town where it was constructed.
Carnival recently took delivery of its biggest ship ever, Mardi Gras, from the Meyer Turku shipyard in Turku, Finland. In recent days, it’s been circling in the waters just off Barcelona.
The temporarily-unneeded newcomers join such long-idled newbuilds as Scarlet Lady, the first vessel from startup line Virgin Voyages. It was complete a full year ago but has been unable to operate due to the pandemic. It’s currently docked in Civitavecchia, Italy — the port for Rome.
The list of new cruise ships that have been completed but unable to sail with passengers over the past year also includes ships from Princess, Celebrity, Silversea and Lindblad Expeditions.
That was how the article struck me. IMHO Less and smaller capacity ships are needed not 2,000-5,500passener ships. But then I am not running a Cruise Line.
Time will tell whether borrowing billions of dollars and ordering a bigger and more costly product will pay off. -Tom
We may be rapidly approaching a new ‘disposable’ cruise liner era.
Not since Titanic and the Lusitania, the Andrea Doria and Carnival ship(s), has it looked so bleak for the industry.
btw, if the passengers on these ships had only kept their masks on, so many more would have survived.
Alaska in ‘22 or Bust!!
Fill them up!
Declare them all 100% Covid FREE zones!
Vaccinated Only Allowed!
Millions and millions of newly Vaccinated 65 and over will keep them booked for years!I
Call your travel agent today and DEMAND Vaccinated Only cruises, flight, hotels and casinos, you are now FREE to move about the world.
The cruise lines could wind up paying back deposits to jilted passengers by giving them an unused cruise ship.
“Since we’re can’t afford to refund your deposit...here’s a cruise ship instead. Bon voyage!”
Prison ships.
Or-We may be rapidly approaching a new ‘disposable’ Cruise Line era.-Tom
Of course these ships were ordered pre covid and represent deliveries over several years. I believe around 35 ships were sold to smaller lines or for scrap in 2020. I'd tend to agree about smaller ships, though that may be my personal preference speaking. Also, the possibility of non US ports of embarkation might also argue for smaller ships, the 4,000 plus ships can't go lots of places. In any case I've little doubt they're financially committed to the purchases, meaning the financial pressure may continue for some time after full capacity cruising resumes. I don't know much about the cost factors, newer ships are more economical assuming full capacity, which is a large assumption.
My guess that's what the CDC will demand, and most large countries will follow suit.
“I’d tend to agree about smaller ships, though that may be my personal preference speaking.”
Below is a recent article on 40 smaller cruise ships on order, and most hold between 200-300 people and only MSC and Viking have ordered 1,000 passenger ships in that group of 40.
Looks like the big 3, CARNIVAL-ROYAL-and NORWEGIAN are going for the bigger cruise ships. -Tom
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24441-a-look-at-the-new-luxury-cruise-ship-fleet.html
“Cruising with DON” seems to have caught on to a long time complaint I, and many other Freepers have made about our CDC,
and how the CDC wrecks cruises. Click the link below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg0gCJgKAGE
I agree totally.
I don’t like paying for auto insurance. Never had an accident in 58 years of driving cars all over USA. But the states force me to buy “liability” insurance.
Many schools will not allow your child to attend if child does not have all required vaccinations. That protects OTHER children.
Exact same thing with covid-19 vaccine. It should be mandatory to participate in any group activity with strangers. Such as flights, cruises, inter-state buses, movie theaters, etc. It is your civic duty to stop spread of the pandemic by vaccinating yourself.
Larger the ship, the better. I get more exercise, the shows are better (cruise company can spend more to hire show people with larger base of passengers), more variety of dining, and ships move with less rocking.
The largest ship I have sailed on was Oasis of the Seas (RCCL). It had a real Oasis on board with hundreds of trees and bushes and birds were living there permanently. Funny thing is it was the least crowded cruise even though there were 6000 passengers aboard.
I don’t like paying for auto insurance. Never had an accident in 58 years of driving cars all over USA. But the states force me to buy “liability” insurance. It is a good civic requirement. It protects others if I cause an accident.
Most schools will not allow your child to attend if child does not have all required vaccinations. That protects OTHER children.
Exact same thing with covid-19 vaccine. It should be mandatory to participate in any group activity with strangers. Such as flights, cruises, inter-state buses, movie theaters, etc. It is your civic duty to stop spread of the pandemic by vaccinating yourself.
“Exact same thing with covid-19 vaccine.”
No, it is not. Did you freak out about the flu?? No?
Getting the vaccine does NOT ensure you cannot carry and transmit the virus. Read the freaking labels before spouting off such stupid nonsense.
Did Don say “Hope you’re having a Zantacistic day!”?
Covid-19 is 10 times more contagious than seasonal flu.
And covid-19 has caused serious permanent damage to lungs, or heart or liver or kidneys or brain of SOME young & healthy persons. Flue does not do that.
Covid-19 kill ratio for healthy people is much lower than small pox (which I had and almost died), SARS, Yellow fever, drug resistant TB, Ebola, Plague, etc. However covid-19 infections have spread 10 times faster than those other more lethal diseases.
You are forgetting the real reason to get vaccinated. Which is improving your chances of not getting seriously sick with covid-19. That reduces burden on the healthcare infrastructure.
Another good reason for vaccines is that asymptomatic infection without seriously sick spreads far LESS virus cells to nearby humans. Notice how seriously ill covid-19 patients are handles in hospitals. They are completely covered up in plastic tents. They do not do that to Flu patients.
Partial knowledge is far more dangerous than no knowledge.
“Covid-19 is 10 times more contagious than seasonal flu.
And covid-19 has caused serious permanent damage to lungs, or heart or liver or kidneys or brain of SOME young & healthy persons. Flue does not do that.”
BS on both accounts. You have no idea what you are talking about.
“Which is improving your chances of not getting seriously sick with covid-19. That reduces burden on the healthcare infrastructure.”
So would keeping your fat ass off of cruise ships and not drinking alcohol. That type of excuse making is liberalism at its worst.
I agree with much of what you’ve said, though only in essential public venues like transportation. You don’t have to purchase to drive a car, only to drive on public highways legally. Though a good policy, it does eliminate other options, like securing a bond to cover potential liability to others. However places like restaurants and movie theaters, I’d prefer the individual business’ make that decision. Yes, most will require it for liability reasons, but there’s no compelling public interest it viewing a movie. Marathons and 10Ks are popular, if they want to require a mask fine, participants have a choice.
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