Lockdowns Have Depleted Capital in All Forms

No.

My point is that credit is a very small part of capital.

Who will start a small business right now no matter how much credit is offered?

For no reason other then a politician delusion and ego you can be shut down while your competition thrives because they gave money to the right party.

livius; ...we have to work to get legal guarantees that something like this can never happen again.

We're past the point of legal guarantees. The same government those laws were codified through were the ones who ignored them.

We're in a post-electoral nation as proven by the stolen election in 2020. We're going to see contracts written outside U.S. jurisdiction. We're going to see companies change to be agile enough to depart a jurisdiction in weeks, not years. We're going to see the use of bonds, escrow accounts, and financial guarantees using denominations other than U.S. dollars. (which has already started with cryptocurrencies).

I have been amazed at the innovation coming from businesses and entrepreneurs in dealing with these "takings" from the state. From outdoor tents for restaurants and "drive-in concerts" for entertainers, they've proven Reagan's comment that all the smart people are in industry and not government.

THAT SAID...there is already enough uncertainty the Invisible Hand delivers. Why would anyone sign-up for running a business with the new threat of a government-sanctioned meteor shower? Back in the day, the term "graveyard market" was used to describe a situation where people in the market wanted out but were stuck and nobody on the outside wanted to get in....that's where we seem to be today.

IN ADDITION, you can't push on a string. Without revenue, without sales, without demand, all the ZIRP and stimulus won't do jack. People won't spend beyond their Maslows when the govt can just declare this virus or that Murder Hornet or a class of citizens to be a Cause for Shutdown.

The Trump Admin was absolutely brilliant in using PPP and other solutions to deal with how States were screwing things up. To be fair, and hard to believe, there was a sentiment in March and April that if we shut things down for 14 days or so, we'd beat the bug. There was WIDE disagreement that it was or wasn't needed...the Nation generally gave shutdowns a try, and cases abated in May. But the blue States weaponized the shutdowns and masks etc., which gave us our current situation of Biden* and ceaseless govt mandates and contorted demand.

Business owners are smart. But at some point the government can corner you. The walls in the graveyard market keep growing.

In other words, you're 100% correct.

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