Maverick astrophysicist calls for unusually intense solar cycle, straying from consensus view

Washington Post ^ | 12/19/2020 | Matthew Cappuci

[zeugma]

Everything you need to know about solar activity, courtesy of SolarHam.net. Very cool, for more than just Hams.

[BenLurkin]

I have - yet another - dumb question.

If there was some kind of advance warning - would it do any good to disconnect the car battery?

[BenLurkin]

Sidekicks named Goose don’t stand a chance. As evidenced in both Top Gun and the first Mad Max film.

Only thing worse is to be Sean Bean.

[zeugma]

Radio skip is when a radio transmission balances off the ionosphere, where the signal is refracted reflected back to earth at a great distance.

Just picking a gnit. Cheers!

[diatomite]

Global Warming!!! Many others have predicted a very minimal solar cycle which would ha cooled the earth more.

[JAKraig]

We have been watching sunspot cycles for hundreds of years. There is a 22 year cycle, some call it an 11 year cycle but 22 years from start to back to the same place. Besides these 11/22 year cycles there are also various other longer cycles. For a long time we have graphed these cycles and we think we can tell pretty much what is coming next by looking back at the history of similar cycles, however; a new techinique had been developed that allows astronomers to “hear” the sounds from inside the sun. They do this by reading the frequency shift of radio waves bounced off the sun and then reconstruct the sounds waves eminating from inside the sun as they show themselves on the surface. It isn’t a very exact science yet but a few astronomers think they have it down pat and can predict what will happen in the near term of the sun by reading those sound waves.

I have been following the sun for decades as a hobby. I’m not convinced the sound listeners have it right because the history of previous cycles would say we are actually just starting to come out of a grand solar minimum which would mean a couple cycles of realitive calm in sunspot numbers. That calm in sunspot numbers should translate into cooler temperatures on earth like what happened in the Maunder Grand Minimum of the late 18th and early 19th centuries.

Grand minimums give rise to changing magnetic fields on earth that some say contributes to increases in volcanism which further contributes to cooler weather.

Astronomers can make whatever predictions they want, they are usually far enough out in time that nobody today will remember what they said, they can wax elequent and sound great but be dead wrong but nobody will care when they are dead and nobody will remember these “scientist” who were wrong.

[MAAG]

Check out a site called SDO.com

Then look up Faraday cage.

[Ozark Tom]

Twenty-two year cycle with alternate northern and southern oscillation of NS and EW oriented magnetic fields.

https://www.exploratorium.edu/sunspots/research4.html

[Ozark Tom]

Losing the fiber optic cables would be a more direct curtailment of surveillance (internet) without loss of electrical grid.

[frogjerk]

Thanks for the education. I remember “skipland” from my CB radio days a long, long time ago.

[OldGoatCPO]

I read an article that said disconnecting the battery will not help. The EMP will fry the computer chips. The only way to protect a vehicle would be to turn your garage into a faraday cage. The article debated whether the car would still function and decided it would (if you can start it) run badly until you ran out of gas. Gas would not be available for a time because the pumps at gas stations would not run, they are electric and computerized. Gas when available would be rationed for electric generators. Since they are just engines and a basic generator they could still function. However, generators do use some solid state devices which if fried would make the output inconsistent. But they would work. Since that article, newer cars are even more computer dependent. I doubt they will run, anything from the early 90s and older would still run based on the article.

The article was in a military trade magazine, not a survival type magazine. They were not trying to sell anything. They wanted to analyze what would occur during an solar EMP event. Solar EMP burst have happened before, but not since the world has become so computer dependent. If I remember correctly, the article compared the solar EMP event results to terrorists taking out the power grid or the explosion of an EMP device over the USA. The conclusion being that a solar event, which is likely in the future, would be far more devastating as it would be on a global scale. 2020 is not over yet, there is still time for an EMP event.

[BenLurkin]

Thank you.

[OldGoatCPO]

I like Brazil in South America, but the cities are overrun by gangs. Small urban areas and country side is great, people are very friendly, food is good and lots to do. However, English is not as common, they expect you to learn Portuguese. Medical system outside of Rio was not as good. The Philippines is a good option. English is spoken everywhere, they have a great medical system and, at least for the time being your money is worth something. Just stay out of Manila except for day trips and shopping. $50 for a day will hire you a driver to take you around the city. Local food is awesome, but they love American chain restaurants. Manila even has American chain restaurants with menus identical to the US. I spoke to the manager of a IHOP in Global City. He said they are trained in US and food is shipped from USA to ensure the menu is prepared correctly. They have great malls. Typhoons are worse then hurricanes and depending where you live flooding is guaranteed. Japan is not third world, but it is my preference. Language is an issue, but English is spoken especially near US military bases. They have opened up to foreigners in the last decade and it is easier to rent a house. Like Brazil, you are expected to adapt to their culture and norms. Just be polite. Bring a NYC attitude and you will find people ignore you. You are like an unwanted but not harmful cell invading a body. They will always be polite, but just ignore you. Cities in Japan are different then the small urban areas, they are like cities anywhere and major cities have areas that cater to foreigners. The food is amazing, not all sushi. The area I would live in has a base to get your USA fix occasionally. Wake up in the morning, enjoy a nice walk, stop at the local coffee shop they have great breads and pastry. If you feel like a nice walk on a warm night at 2 am, go for it, you are safe.

To me the next best options are not third world, but good places to go are Poland and Hungary.

[dfwgator]

To me the next best options are not third world, but good places to go are Poland and Hungary.

I've been actually looking at Gdansk/Sopot/Gdynia, it's on the coast, so there are beaches, and a lot of history. And it's pretty reasonable, the cost of living there.

[OldGoatCPO]

Having lived in Japan, there are people I have been friends with so long they are now family. With the recent opening of Japan, I have been working on my wife to take six months and go there. Rent is really cheap they have a housing glut in some areas. See how it goes for six months and then decide our next move. We have property that would have to be maintained and managed. But we have friends in realty that would manage that for six months, longer may be a problem.

I have debated on a trip to Poland. I also heard Hungary is really nice so it would be worth a trip. The EU is a worry, Orban recently described Brussels as the new Moscow.