Posted on 12/21/2020 9:58:17 AM PST by BenLurkin
The sun has begun a new 11-year cycle, and scientists have very different ideas on just how much energy will be available to fuel its eruptions.
The consensus view of an international panel of 12 scientists calls for the new cycle, Solar Cycle 25, to be small to average, much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
Scott McIntosh, foresees the sun going gangbusters. The cycle is already off to a fast start, coinciding with the recent publication of McIntosh's paper in Solar Physics. The study, with contributions from several of his colleagues, forecasts the nascent sunspot cycle to become one of the strongest ever recorded.
The number of sunspots crowding the solar disk at one time varies significantly over the course of the solar cycle. During solar minimum - which we're emerging from right now - weeks can pass without a single sunspot. In fact, 206 days in 2020 (or 58% of the year) haven't featured any Earth-facing sunspots.
But at the peak of a solar cycle, the average monthly sunspot number ranges from 140 to 220.
Solar cycle 24′s sunspot activity proved underwhelming - with the sunspot number averaging 110 at its peak.
...McIntosh, who anticipates that the upcoming solar cycle could be the most active in half a century. He has developed a prediction technique he says foreshadows a coming period of solar volatility.
"If the relationship, [which] was developed off 24 cycles, holds, the number [of sunspots] coming out is double what the consensus prediction was from the various panel members was," McIntosh said.
His group pinned their forecast at "233 [sunspots] with error bars" during the peak of Solar Cycle 25.
(Excerpt) Read more at chron.com ...
“upcoming solar cycle could be the most active in half a century”
Yes let it be so: getting reading to upgrade my Antennas for 10 and 6 meters. Yes please please please
Let’s have a Carrington Event party before the lights go out.
Please explain in layman’s terms
Commie John Brennan is out basically admitting there are UFOs and aliens
He would be in a position to know.
it was on some podcast with a dude named tyler
Looking forward to better propagation de W5HJ.
So, what does it mean? Coming ice age, or global warming on steroids?
He is referring to the fact that solar activity increases the propagation of radiio waves on the amateur radio frequencies.
This may help: https://hamradioschool.com/sunspots-and-propagation/
Not enough pagans around the world have been worshipping the Sun. That may explain this.
In the Book of Isaiah it says to “remove your roof gods.” The commentary book said thousands of people used to have little stone statues of a face looking toward the Sun on their roof as a pagan ritual. Removing the little Sun gods was part of returning to proper worship of God.
Ham radio. Shortwave. Increased antenna range and power for transmission of signals is directly related to sunspot activity. A lot of radio operators use 10 and 6 bandwidths.
"The consensus view of an international panel of 12 scientists calls for the new cycle, Solar Cycle 25, to be small to average,
much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24."
Not so ! - says disagreeing scientist.
I agree with him.
I'm old enough to remember the hysteria about the "Coming New Ice Age" in the 70's. They also conveniently forget the "mini ice age" before the industrial revolution.
I don't trust scientists anymore. I believe they have been politicized and rely too much on computer models to prove their preconceived hypothesis - garbage in, garbage out.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that the number of solar flares will increase or decrease or stay about the same.
Oh crap, 2020 sucked, but an EMP burst from the sun in 2021 would push Corona to the back page.
This could be the big one, it’s coming Elizabeth!
😂😂😂😂😂
Gyre-driven decay of the Earth’s magnetic dipole
Christopher C Finlay 1, Julien Aubert 2, Nicolas Gillet 3
PMID: 26814368 PMCID: PMC4737809 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10422
Abstract
Direct observations indicate that the magnitude of the Earth’s magnetic axial dipole has decreased over the past 175 years; it is now 9% weaker than it was in 1840. Here we show how the rate of dipole decay may be controlled by a planetary-scale gyre in the liquid metal outer core. The gyre’s meridional limbs on average transport normal polarity magnetic flux equatorward and reverse polarity flux poleward. Asymmetry in the geomagnetic field, due to the South Atlantic Anomaly, is essential to the proposed mechanism. We find that meridional flux advection accounts for the majority of the dipole decay since 1840, especially during times of rapid decline, with magnetic diffusion making an almost steady contribution generally of smaller magnitude. Based on the morphology of the present field, and the persistent nature of the gyre, the current episode of dipole decay looks set to continue, at least for the next few decades.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26814368/
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