Posted on 12/05/2020 5:18:14 AM PST by SteveH
any thoughts?
i am thinking
* payoff mortgage immediately
* divest from all stocks, mutual funds, bonds 50% now, 25% next week if bad news continues
* move into precious metals now, 50% from cash in bank now, 25% next week if bad news continues
* pay off any mortgage (if overall finances allow, eg, if mortgage currently being used as income tax dodge)
* (current blue state residents) prepare for possibility of a need to leave home with very little advance notice, travel to nearest solid red state - have or buy a decent auto, preferably 4x4 truck. plan the route now, memorize it
(anyone considering going to mexico? canada?)
(i would love to be wrong about a need to do all of this.)
thoughts welcome
It’s called chelation therapy, where WE are the cleansing fluid!
“ My Morgan Stanley guy won’t. ”
IMHO a good financial planner takes political risk into their calculations just as much as market risk, interest rate risk and other risks.
I do. Not that I’m always right.
mostly i have SPY which is a S and P 500 index fund that i can exit any time stocks are traded. i think this includes after hours trading (although i have not even thought about that up until now if that is possible).
i moved away from individual stocks and to index funds 4 years ago after experiencing a small but disastrous downturn in biotech (my background is in computers). overall, my return in computer stocks has been good and outside of computers, a mixture of good and bad. the lesson seemed to be either not to invest in non-computer stocks or not to invest in targeted industries in which i do not have any background).
i moved away from mutual funds to index funds around 10 months ago so i could trade during the day (mutual funds seem limited to end of day trading only, which means to me that they are not fast enough to respond to rapid changing political events and emergency situations).
individual stocks require more careful daily monitoring. in particular, if you are on vacation, you need to be plugged in every day if you have individual stocks.
after a successful run with index funds, i slowly moved back to an 80/20 mix of index funds and a very small number (currently 2) of more carefully selected individual stocks. i also consolidated my index funds (currently holding only 2 such funds).
i also own a rental property. i am currently blessed with a responsible renter and a good property manager, both of which i am thinking are essential for peace of mind. i think if the renter moves i should sell the rental property and become more liquid
general principle
rent control may become more widespread in my state
landlord is becoming a dirty word in local politics
seasonal considerations
my investments have underwent a complete turnover in the last couple of years. i have already paid the income taxes on decades of buy and hold investments, leaving taxes only on relatively recent (2 years or less) gains.
i think i can afford to cash out 80%-100% by the beginning of the holiday season. should i do so? and if so, 80% or 100%?
Not own, but 99-yr leases!
You can cancel the cable and still keep the internet, right?
Trucks are useful, but water is essential. Stock up.
Speaking of media, think about ham radio.
There are others there like you. Would be prudent to quietly seek them out. Like at your church. But know, that even democrats are Christians! So be careful.
Right now the fed rules. So I'll stand with what I wrote.
Like I said, if Biden completes the steal, I will slowly divest, rethink, and plan accordingly. But nothing drastic for a few months.
And yes, I am a seasoned and very succesful investor. There is risk in staying in, but my opinion is there is a greater risk for lost opportunity by staying out.
Be watchful. Emotion shouldn't drive your moves.
> Alright, let me as a veteran address the CWII gorilla in the room......A lot of keyboard warriors here and other places appear almost giddy at the prospect...
first, thanks for your service.
second, i agree that some folks seem to have itchy trigger fingers without fully anticipating all of the potential downside consequences of that.
third, i am focusing here on the passive end of a worst case scenario. personally i suspect i am over the hill as far as age limitations go, at least formally on paper.
side note, i cannot control what other people post, but hopefully everyone will agree to keep cool and avoid any inappropriate rhetoric (eg pro violence).
I do watch how the vaccine-related pharma and airlines and Amazon react to each other though.
The wild card lately in the stuff I trade is Tesla. Tesla is the tail that wags the dog. Not sure how to value Tesla so I am at a loss for saying it's too high or not high enough.
QQQ is pushing through its all time high (thanks to Tesla, Amazon, and FANG's excitement about China). Nose bleed territory.;-)
Savage Beast,
I know you are aware that some of my post to you was a general “call to arms” to other Freepers and Lurkers... Pun intended. :^)
Thanks for all you are doing!
NeverGore
All you can do is watch metal prices of the major metals companies. At any point in time, you (and everyone else) will pay market prices. Go bullion—not coins. I am silver only. If the “reset” is severe and long term, barter will dictate what is more valuable at any point in time. So metals, only, is not IT, but other products/items as well, and certainly do not hold vast amounts of paper money! That’d be insane! Just ensure you have resources on hand to survive a minimum of 6 months, and preferably one year, of all products, metals, food, water, energy, medical, FRIENDS!!, weapons, etc.
Just like the British had with Hong Kong ;-)
Amen.
I expected a great deal of volatility around and after the election, particularly given the fraud.
Hasn't happened yet.
SteveH,
Over the years I’ve seen a lot here and abroad.
This too will pass here.....
However, we are the ones that shape our future regardless of what cheap suit politicians, pundits, and television talking heads promote...
Worry less now regarding civil war and more about how you and your family can shape our immediate future.....
Realistically, we are huge in number and will be heard...
NeverGore
If you need a quick temporary bugout location, rent one or two 20x20 storage bins at a local fenced-in, razor-wired, storage facility! Load it up now with stuff you would need. If needed, you could live there for awhile. You would not be alone!
> 1. I like cash. Lots of it. Depending on your age that amount should vary.
i have to ask if i could learn more specifics about that.
so, i am wondering, the older i am, the more liquid i should be?
also, what forms of cash are best, or have diverse forms of cash? even perhaps in multiple banks?
i already have 5 or 6 banks (unevenly distributed cash within). is that enough? to answer one concern myself i should probably distribute more evenly.
forms- perhaps distribute also. any form of cash has its own merits and limitations. this seems to imply that there are advantages to diversifying forms of liquidity.
bank accounts
paper money on hand
precious metals on hand (non collectible gold coins, junk silver)
ammo
i probably shortchanged myself on 9mm ammo of which i have none since i decided i had no personal use for 9mm many years ago as a technical consideration. however, i recently have seen interest or an upsurge in attention on 9mm ammo, leading me to question my earlier decision to avoid it. anyway, in my state, sadly it may be too late for me to fix my situation in that regard (9 mm as a form of liquid cash). i might also be missing a couple of other popular calibers, simply because i had no personal use for it, not because of its value as barter cash. i suppose it would have been preferable to have a stash of all popular calibers for bartering convenience. at this point, i am not an arms expert so my main considerations in regards to ammo is primarily for barter currency use.
“BE CAREFUL! You can’t eat or drink gold and silver.”
But you can sure as hell use it as a medium of exchange for things you need, especially in SHTF conditions.
Long and short of it is, they want everything.
Why they care about what people they don’t even know exist do with their lives is beyond me, but some people are just consummate control freaks.
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