personal investments management during a civil war

me | 2020-12-5 | me

[SteveH]

any thoughts?

i am thinking

* payoff mortgage immediately

* divest from all stocks, mutual funds, bonds 50% now, 25% next week if bad news continues

* move into precious metals now, 50% from cash in bank now, 25% next week if bad news continues

* pay off any mortgage (if overall finances allow, eg, if mortgage currently being used as income tax dodge)

* (current blue state residents) prepare for possibility of a need to leave home with very little advance notice, travel to nearest solid red state - have or buy a decent auto, preferably 4x4 truck. plan the route now, memorize it

(anyone considering going to mexico? canada?)

(i would love to be wrong about a need to do all of this.)

thoughts welcome

[SteveH]

a part of me is struggling to believe that a civil war is actually a serious possibility.

i have always given theoretical consideration to it or a similar scenario, but i have never felt any pressure to take it seriously until recently (in my case, starting about 4 months ago, plus or minus a month or two).

i was fortunate to have gone through an earlier personal preparedness drill prior to y2k (so my preparation effort was not nearly as large as it could have been).

other considerations are that i am now at an age generally considered as retiree age, and i have family with handicap considerations. additionally some family members discount my concerns about political winds and personal safety— in the past i have received some ridicule for my pessimism and my focus on preparedness. needless to say, all of these considerations impact negatively my ability to move and respond quickly, as well as limit the amount of resources i can devote to preparedness (i have done reasonably ok if not well considering the circumstances, but there was always more that i could have done had i not been restricted in some ways).

now i am limiting myself to stuff that can be accomplished within a few calendar days (also keeping in mind upcoming holidays which is imho important to keep in mind, meaning get everything done before christmas holidays) and with 99% certainty of completion under any conceivable circumstances.

[CalWildcat]

What if you are a freedom loving patriot and you live in a fascist blue state?

Believe it or not, nearly 40% of Californians are conservatives.

[moovova]

Ready to run bookmark.

[Married with Children]

Oh who am I kidding,if any Biden goons show up in McCurtain county looking for trouble...they will never be seen or heard from again. You don’t eff around over there because it’s still the Wild West in SE Oklahoma.
Lots of Meth too! 😜

[SteveH]

> You think banks will be open and ATM’s functional during a civil war?

> How violent do you think it will be and rather than ask who is going to take the first shot, ask who is going to follow him?

thanks but if you are seriously asking me such questions, my guesses are probably as good or bad as yours.

[Justa]

Re-fi the mortgage for a lower rate and longer term. Why pay it off if the’re going to make you bulldoze it to make it green-compliant? Even the bond market’s 4% return is greater than a 2.7% APR on a mortgage. Returns are better with stock index funds which yield >10%.

[Twotone]

“You can’t eat silver or gold and you can’t defend yourself with it.”

Something else to think about regarding gold:

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $408 in 2019) per troy ounce.

Signed by: Franklin Delano Roosevelt on 5 April ...
Executive Order number: 6102

They will come after us for our guns, but maybe gold, too.

[Hot Tabasco]

you’re right

[moovova]

“I am sure that as the gov’t comes and murders gun owners they will want to add insult to injury and initiate asset forfeiture against the dead firearms owners property...”

There’s nothing stopping the gubment from instituting a clawback feature in future legislation that would go after the property you’ve previously divested yourself of (to your wife/children).

You KNOW they’re morally capable of that...as a result of having no morals.

[SteveH]

> I need advice here: I do not think Canada will allow US citizens in. Mexico is too violent and dangerous. Is there any country that would provide a safe haven if America should become so violent that escape is the only option?

the problem with switzerland or new zealand (which i suspect you are hinting about in your question) is that they both require outbound planes to reach, and a permanent resident visa tends to require a substantial amount of money.

for example, iirc NZ requires proof of a bank account with $500k cash deposit (personally that would ok with me). i have not checked switzerland lately although i once lived there and so i could probably check it again just to keep informed.

i have other non-financial limitations that probably preclude the luxury neutral country route. however, perhaps in my sheer ignorance, i would put belize near the top of any such neutral country list. i have no idea what the restrictions are but i do know from friends that it is possible to retire in belize. also, apparently it is not outrageously priced.

two considerations are:

* travel mode to destination. in particular, planes and boats could be a problem.

* bug restrictions and quarantines. last time i seriously looked (a few weeks ago), usa citizens are generally not permitted to travel to most other countries due to the bug, at least not without expensive 2 week quarantines.

i would welcome more info on the neutral country notion and update on the bug related international travel restrictions (due to other considerations, if my personal restrictions do not change, i will probably remain somewhere in continental usa).

[nevergore]

Savage Beast,

Thank you for your supporting words of reason.....

We need to organize with a laser focus on righting this boat we call America.

Like many on this forum, I would gladly again go to war for my country but we aren’t even close to that point yet.

Focus NOW where you can make a difference in your state.

How many Freepers have called their representatives to register their complaints? How many have started or signed petition drives? How many have encouraged their neighbors to do the same?

I’m sure that a lot of Freepers have done these things but if you haven’t yet, take the time and do so. Our numbers are huge and can’t be ignored if we raise our voices in unison and say “NO MORE!”

NeverGore

[SteveH]

> Bought a couple acres of land up in AK. Planned to move there eventually, but a Biden “win” will move up those plans.

intriguing idea, thanks for sharing.

i wonder what 2 suitable acres might cost in AK. i would probably need something with a home already built. i suppose selectable on-off grid options would be preferable.

[Patriot_MP]

You need to get out.... if you are 360 in blue — they will come for you first... I’m about to leave VA if if my highly RED starts being attacked... VA is mostly RED - except for the major cities... but if the GOV and (should Biden get in) goes crazy — I’m out — heading west to more conservative areas...

[Patriot_MP]

I believe CA went for TRUMP — but we will never know...

[Savage Beast]

Thanks! Your ideas are good ones--and very much appreciated.

Of course, emigration would be only a last resort, but keeping the children safe is a serious consideration.

[kjam22]

We’re in Latimer county. Yeah.... i think it voted 84% for trump. Very rural and will be one of the last places put under subjection if it comes to that. Wife and I just raise cows there (not meth). Lol

[Patriot_MP]

I’m saying if you are Democrat - stay in your blue state — don’t move to a Red state — they don’t need the infection of leftism... Apparently, that’s what the news is saying about CA residents left and went to AZ and NV and why those states went for Biden ... it had nothing t odo with cheating.... (which we all know it did)... but I digress...

[hecticskeptic]

I talked to my financial advisor in late August and told him to dump every investment two months before the election and put me in cash... and told him that I would not think of going back into the market until things had settled down after the inauguration (not as precise on that date but say about a month afterwards).

What is going on now was so predictable and Freepers as a group were well on the forefront of knowing what this mess was going to look like... especially the entire mail in ballot fiasco and what that alone would do to any concept of having a clear election winner. I think I can say that as a group, we anticipated Dem-Rat election fraud but I doubt that any amongst considered the scope of what we’re actually seeing. Yes... the market has had some upside since the election (specifically since Nov. 8) but I for one am willing to forgo that simply because this still has to be regarded as highly unpredictable and if nothing else, markets don’t like uncertainty (and I don’t think that ‘they’ have figured out ‘just how uncertain things can or will get’.) For the record, I do believe that PDJT will still be PDJT after January 21, 2021….. explain that to your financial advisor and ask her/him to give you an answer/opinion to the issue of “so what will it do to the market if PDJT fights and prevails?” and you’ll probably be met with a blank stare.

Here’s my thinking as I ponder the alternatives….

1. PDJT fights and prevails and there’s a serious market correction before the inauguration…. Being in cash, this should lead to some great buying opportunities.
2. PDJT fights and prevails and there is not a serious market correction before the inauguration even in the face of the uncertainty….I of course have much more confidence in a PDJT economy than a Bye-Done one and so it makes sense to just pick the right ones after things have settled down after the election. For example, I would stay away from big tech once PDJT prevails (in fact, I think I’m going to short them)….
3. Bye-done prevails… As a short term measure, as I said, I’ll be happy to forgo the potential upside as my belief is that it’s too risky. I’m going to sit firmly on the sidelines unless I see something I really like offshore.
4. Bye-Done prevails….I can’t believe that a Bye-Done administration will have a long-term benefit for the economy and I’m on the lookout for good offshore investment opportunities if it becomes clear that we really are looking at a Bye-Done administration. I’m also of the view that anything won by fraud, administrations run by crooks and thugs and a direction that is outright socialistic will only unravel and have serious downside sooner or later…. The concept that a Bye-Done win means the end to ever seeing a Republican administration again only solidifies that view of a need to stay away.

I’m not an ardent ‘survivalist’ but I do have a home both in the US and in a foreign country…. and property in both that would be regarded by most as both recreational and very difficult to access. Yup…. Having a good investment in guns and ammo is a good idea for a host of reasons that relate to both protection as well as being self-sufficient.

[SteveH]

> We have a meeting with our Vanguard guy this coming week. It should be interesting.

my broker/advisor has been advising me (since mid 2016) to invest in europe the past few years due to the classic 8-10 year cycle which apparently comes from banking economists.

i pushed back on that advice and went heavily long on USA stocks based on my expectation of a trump win and a pro USA (anti federal reserve) trump administration policy. so far as i can tell, in hindsight i was correct and all of the brokers and bank economists were wrong.

anyway apparently it may be time for a major re-tuning of my portfolio. considering the fed-tainted (and imho bad) advice i got from my broker 4 years ago, i am not expecting very much good advice from my broker now.

however, the entertainment value of my broker meetings have still been pretty high on the comedy scale. he pulls out the economist charts, and i try to control laughing out loud. the poor guy is only doing what he is told.

[Semper Vigilantis]

When the cities run out of food and the utilities shut down the cockroaches will come out and take what they are entitled to.
When there’s nothing to take in the cities they will move outward.
Best advice I have heard so far is ammo and methods to delivery it downrange.
Thank God everyday that I am in Texas, over 100 miles from any city and in a defendable location.