Posted on 11/25/2020 1:41:39 PM PST by Capt. Tom
Recovery is still distant for a cruise industry scrambling to stay afloat. Shocking numbers released by Stock Apps show the industry is on track to lose around $20 billion in revenues this year.
While $20 billion is an incredibly large number in itself, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Cruise lines worldwide are borrowing billions, refinancing, and selling vessels to be able to sail, hopefully, in the next year.
The combined loss incurred by the cruise lines and the shore-based service industry supporting the cruise lines could well run into trillions of dollars in 2020.
Huge Growth Numbers Collapse The cruise industry has been showing incredible growth since the first ships started sailing; however, in the last few years, the industry’s growth has been exponential. Cruise revenue was at $23.7 billion in 2017, while in 2018, this grew by 8.6% to $25.8 billion.
The projected forecast for 2020 shows the cruise industry would have been set to grow revenues to $27.8 billion. This number has now been adjusted to $7.8 billion; however, this could be viewed as optimistic. The predicted numbers were calculated in September when it was assumed cruise lines would sail in 2020.
U.S. Cruise Industry Hit Hard As the most popular location for cruising, the United States is hit incredibly hard. Revenue loss for cruise lines sailing from ports in the United States is expected to run up to $10 billion.
Losses in other markets are also severe. The German cruise market, the second-largest cruise market worldwide, is expected to see revenue drop from $2.8 billion last year to $797 million this year. Major cruise lines in Germany, both Carnival owned AIDA and Royal Caribbean part-owned Mein Schiff, have already applied for state aid this year.
Other major markets are also expected to make significant losses. The United Kingdom will likely see a drop in revenue of 72.6%, followed closely by the Chinese and Canadian markets.
Recovery Will Take Years
If the cruise industry can sail in January or February, it can finally set a recovery course. It will take years before the cruise industry will be at the same level it was in 2019.
If we look at passenger numbers alone, between 2017 and 2019, the number of guests onboard cruise ships rose from 26.1 million to 29 million. In 2020 this number will not go beyond 8 million.
The expected number of guests for 2021 will be around 17 million; in 2022, that number will go up to 22.5 million. It won’t be until 2024 that the number of guests onboard cruise ships will rise above 29 million again.
This number is slightly more favourable in revenue, with an expected recovery to the pre-COVID levels of $27.4 billion in 2023.
The cruise industry as a whole has been set back 4-5 years at a minimum. The sad fact is that, while these numbers are not looking great for a struggling industry, they are based on a scenario where ships will be sailing soon. What would happen if operations are pushed even further back is anyone’s guess.
Or Titanic disaster.
I’ve been on many and never even came home with a sneeze. Don’t believe the hype. Millions of people a year have cruised. If you do the math illness is miniscule and that’s including norovirus outbreaks.
Many great memories.
Old Yeller wrote: “Floating petri dishes.”
Have you ever been on a cruise?
That adds as much as saying that airliners are ‘flying petri dishes’ or schools are ‘petri dishes for children’.
You sound like a virgin who hates sex.
I have been on 36 cruises most 7 days long, but a few longer. After EVERY CRUISE I came back stronger and healthier. Because of the availability of high nourishment food and opportunity to walk miles every day and use the beautiful gyms, usually located near the top of ship with expansive views of ocean.
Not one time in those 288 days spent on ships did I get digestive problems or sea sickness issues. It has been just a wonderful part of my life. The latest cruise was on Carnival Ecstacy ship ending on February 29th, 2020.
Yeller reminds of a virgin who hated sex.
Been on 6 RC cruises, always a great time. Fingers are crossed for a Mediterranean cruise in 2022.
The lines are only the tip of the iceberg. The ports and the local economies are hurting too.
The mega ships are horrible IMO. I did a seven day on a mega ship and it was far and away the worst cruise with the worst service and experience I’ve ever had. Since I travel with my young daughter I prefer the smaller Carnival ships which have a good crew-to-passenger ratio and large ‘elbow room’ (yes it’s a metric). On the Carnival Spirit and Fantasy class ships we’ve never missed a show or event we wanted, everything works and the cruises were super relaxing. I couldn’t have asked for more.
The market is there. As soon as the govt takes its boot off the industry’s neck it’ll be back. My biggest fear is cruising doesn’t factor into WEF’s 2030 Plan to Build Back Better (you will own nothing, you will do nothing and YOUVILL be happy).
The socialists around the world do not care. Look at the USA where literally half the business’s closed in democrat run cities and the democrats are trying to destroy the rest.
No doubt about that; my travel agent (Expedia ) folded a few months ago.
I see here on FR a thread where DISNEY is planning to lay off over 30,000 workers in early 2021.
IMHO if Shakespeare were around today he would say to the Cruise Lines; “To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow, Creeps in this petty pace from day to day, To the last syllable of recorded time; -Tom
Same here. Spent over 30 days, four times, on the Holland America Rotterdam ship. Ship has been sold. We’re over 100 days by now.
Hopefully someday we can ‘Let the good times roll’ again.
Try going to the Expedia website. Idiots in IT make you prove your a human to proceed. SCREW THEM. Closed the page — they might as well be out of business.
“Show us your human side...
We can’t tell if you’re a human or a bot.”
Perfect greeting idiots.
Me and Wife and daughters age 15 & 17 (at the time) did a Mediterranean cruise of 14 days on Norwegian Jade ship. It was one of the best cruise out of 36 we have done. We signed up for port bus tours in every port the ship stopped and it was a great and easy way to see Europe and not expensive. We only skipped the Rome tour because the port city of Civitavecchia is several miles from Rome and so the tours were expensive. We took the train on our own to Rome, about an hour ride, and got off the train at St Pietro station and walked to the near by St Peters basilica and surrounds. We could have visited more places in Rome but time was running out because we took a late train to Rome. Saved a ton of money compared to cruise ship sponsored tour of Rome.
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