Posted on 11/25/2020 1:41:39 PM PST by Capt. Tom
Recovery is still distant for a cruise industry scrambling to stay afloat. Shocking numbers released by Stock Apps show the industry is on track to lose around $20 billion in revenues this year.
While $20 billion is an incredibly large number in itself, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Cruise lines worldwide are borrowing billions, refinancing, and selling vessels to be able to sail, hopefully, in the next year.
The combined loss incurred by the cruise lines and the shore-based service industry supporting the cruise lines could well run into trillions of dollars in 2020.
Huge Growth Numbers Collapse The cruise industry has been showing incredible growth since the first ships started sailing; however, in the last few years, the industry’s growth has been exponential. Cruise revenue was at $23.7 billion in 2017, while in 2018, this grew by 8.6% to $25.8 billion.
The projected forecast for 2020 shows the cruise industry would have been set to grow revenues to $27.8 billion. This number has now been adjusted to $7.8 billion; however, this could be viewed as optimistic. The predicted numbers were calculated in September when it was assumed cruise lines would sail in 2020.
U.S. Cruise Industry Hit Hard As the most popular location for cruising, the United States is hit incredibly hard. Revenue loss for cruise lines sailing from ports in the United States is expected to run up to $10 billion.
Losses in other markets are also severe. The German cruise market, the second-largest cruise market worldwide, is expected to see revenue drop from $2.8 billion last year to $797 million this year. Major cruise lines in Germany, both Carnival owned AIDA and Royal Caribbean part-owned Mein Schiff, have already applied for state aid this year.
Other major markets are also expected to make significant losses. The United Kingdom will likely see a drop in revenue of 72.6%, followed closely by the Chinese and Canadian markets.
Recovery Will Take Years
If the cruise industry can sail in January or February, it can finally set a recovery course. It will take years before the cruise industry will be at the same level it was in 2019.
If we look at passenger numbers alone, between 2017 and 2019, the number of guests onboard cruise ships rose from 26.1 million to 29 million. In 2020 this number will not go beyond 8 million.
The expected number of guests for 2021 will be around 17 million; in 2022, that number will go up to 22.5 million. It won’t be until 2024 that the number of guests onboard cruise ships will rise above 29 million again.
This number is slightly more favourable in revenue, with an expected recovery to the pre-COVID levels of $27.4 billion in 2023.
The cruise industry as a whole has been set back 4-5 years at a minimum. The sad fact is that, while these numbers are not looking great for a struggling industry, they are based on a scenario where ships will be sailing soon. What would happen if operations are pushed even further back is anyone’s guess.
Can you imagine trying to run cruises with the obstructions being placed in the way, such as dealing with CDC type health officials in many countries, the unending Covid -19 contradictions, tryin to set up a schedule with ports arbitrarily closing, after you paid for printing brochures to feature the itineraries, trying to keep enough people working , as they look to bail out into new careers, trying to placate would-be travelers, and of course keeping your creditors at bay, plus a ton of other considerations, etc. all this after your company lost Billions of dollars, while you drift into an uncertain future.
Well I am glad right now all I have to avoid is eating to much apple pie tomorrow after the Thanksgiving turkey dinner with my family, and also avoid the corona virus. -Tom
“Shocking numbers released by Stock Apps show the industry is on track to lose around $20 billion in revenues this year.”
Perhaps, they do not have the best of business models.
Incredible. It doesn’t look good for the cruise industry. So many variables, so little time.
This impacts so many jobs - at sea and on land - all over the world.
As always thank you for sharing the latest cruise news.
That’s a shame. I always liked taking cruises. Royal Caribbean was the best. Never had a bad experience. Food and drink everywhere you turn. I had to walk the decks every morning for an hour or two just to burn off some of those calories. Then I’d have a Bloody Mary to start the day right.
Floating petri dishes.
“Never had a bad experience.”
We have been on 4 and all were great. We took my MIL on one after her husband died. She had never been on one and always downplayed them.
After she got back all she talked about was that cruise and how it was the best time she had.
Every night she was in the casinos.
The constantly moving goal posts, and the possibility of a Biden Presidency are not going to help them IMHO. -Tom
Cruise line ping
Cruise line ping.
It’s like one big Posiden Adventure.
The goalposts *should* be pretty simple. No one catches Covid or any other communicable or food-borne disease. That’s all they have to guarantee me to go on a cruise again. However if it’s their fault that I get sick I expect a full refund of all expenses and a generous reimbursement for my time.
Been on two cruises, one was horrible, one was magnificent. Going to go again in a few years.
[It’s like one big Posiden Adventure.]
If you have cash and patience I bet you could get a beautiful cruise ship at a deep discount.
Never a bad experience on a cruise. Staff was always super-friendly and the food and drink was always plentiful. Cabin a a bit cramped but only really went there to sleep and get caught up on work emails and Internet stuff. Plus they always magically re-filled my fruit bowls and such when I was gone with little squares of dark chocolate on the pillows.
Now at the end of the cruise, the staff would always be sure to say goodbye to us as we left with their hands out for tips - and we would tip generously as they really did a great job for us.
Good for you.
I am at the end of the line (85) and a few years is too far off for me to plan. (As I am sure it is for a lot of older cruisers.)
I got my share of cruises in, along with Caribbean sail boat rentals, and am glad I did. -Tom
NCL in the Mexican baja area sucked. But we did Barcelona to Istanbul 14 days in a smaller ship (400 or so) and it was excellent. We had thought of doing a rivers of Eastern Europe before this Covid.
I don’t see the attraction of those mega massive ships, but damn it’s nice to see 10 cities without having to pack and unpack.
Thanks for the link
[I’ve had Maureen McGovern’s “The Morning After” in my playlist for decades now. Also had a number of cruises.]
Now at the end of the cruise, the staff would always be sure to say goodbye to us as we left with their hands out for tips - and we would tip generously as they really did a great job for us. ]
Rekall...Rekall
A lifetime of memories....
Good news... Large 1000 room ships will be available soon for a great price, tons of amenities. Fuel and maintenance may be a bit pricey for some.
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