Posted on 11/08/2020 8:12:06 AM PST by Robert DeLong
The COVID-19 Fatality Rate
In discussing the deadliness of COVID, we need to distinguish COVID cases from COVID infections. A lot of fear and confusion has resulted from failing to understand the difference.
We have heard much this year about the “case fatality rate” of COVID. In early March, the case fatality rate in the U.S. was roughly three percent—nearly three out of every hundred people who were identified as “cases” of COVID in early March died from it. Compare that to today, when the fatality rate of COVID is known to be less than one half of one percent.
In other words, when the World Health Organization said back in early March that three percent of people who get COVID die from it, they were wrong by at least one order of magnitude. The COVID fatality rate is much closer to 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The reason for the highly inaccurate early estimates is simple: in early March, we were not identifying most of the people who had been infected by COVID.
“Case fatality rate” is computed by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But to obtain an accurate COVID fatality rate, the number in the denominator should be the number of people who have been infected—the number of people who have actually had the disease—rather than the number of confirmed cases.
(Excerpt) Read more at miragenews.com ...
What this article is about, from the author:
My goal today is, first, to present the facts about how deadly COVID-19 actually is; second, to present the facts about who is at risk from COVID; third, to present some facts about how deadly the widespread lockdowns have been; and fourth, to recommend a shift in public policy.
COVID is going to go away very soon, if Biden wins.
I have had hangovers worse than COVID. It's overrated, overstated, overblown, and simply a tool to destroy Trump and his supporters.
He'll probably have to mandate universal testing, since his whole campaig was that President Trump didn't get enough people tested on day one, but instead of "cases," the term will become merely "passive positives."
“In early March, the case fatality rate in the U.S. was roughly three percent—nearly three out of every hundred people who were identified as “cases” of COVID in early March died from it.”
Pure utter BS. You can’t use this type of analysis on anything and get a proven result.
There’s ~331,000,000 people in the US. How many died is a percentage of that number not the number tested.
Number tested is irrelevant because of the false positives and false negatives not to mention people getting multiple tests and the biggest factor is those not tested.
COVID-19 mortality rate is insignificant when you look at many other diseases and mortality rate facts yet somehow COVID-19 is a pandemic... no more so than any other cold or flu.
there is no more covid- biden declared himself president and it went away
He also wants us to wear masks inside our own homes
Article has no credibility. They readily admit that CASE Fatality Rate (as opposed to the bogus INFECTION Fatality Rate which “assumes” the denominator number) was 3% in March. Yep, it was. But then, the author apparently either doesn’t know how to look up publicly available data or willfilly ignores it, cuz..
Current US Deaths: 243,343
Current US Cases: 10,196,998
See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Therefore, CASE Fatality Rate is still 2.38%.
Yeah, I know many Freepers think the death numbers are BS or that a large portion has co-morbidities, or that the moon had to be in the 3rd quadrant of Jupiter when any of those “deaths” were reported..or any number of reasons to try to explain the numbers away. But it doesn’t change the reality of what the CASE Fatality Rate currently is. And here in my own home state, it’s 3.4%. Hardly encouraging if you’re confirmed as being COVID positive.
I know multiple people currently in the hospital from COVID - one, a 17-year old athlete. Another, a mid 30s nurse. NEITHER has “co-morbidities” or any of the other things you guys use to try to “pooh pooh” the virus.
A very good friend of mine also has it (as does his whole family now including his 14 year old daughter..wait! I thought kids “can’t catch it”..), and is doing “mostly” well.
It affects everyone differently, and we don’t seem to know why yet. Quit “downplaying” it.
The rate is highly correlated with age. The effect slope/curve as a function of age is high.
So the "encouragement" is much better at lower ages.
You do NOT shut down an economy
That’s mostly true with regard to deaths from COVID. Although there are a lot of anecdotal examples of younger, apparently perfectly healthy people still dying from it - albeit in smaller numbers than those over, say, 70.
But it’s not just deaths we have to worry about, as I’ve been saying for quite some time now. Estimates are that 25+% of cases will have long-term health implications. Permanent damage to lungs, heart, and other organs.
I personally know of at least one person already in this category. Young 40s guy that lives in my sub. Got it back in late March. Still can’t breathe anywhere near normal. Can’t even walk to the mailbox without being out of breath. Goes to the hospital weekly for ongoing treatments. Lots of stories like this out there.
There’s even a “COVID Long Haulers” slack group because many people still have symptoms (sometimes severe) many months later. Whether all those people will have “permanent” symptoms or not is not yet fully known, but the medical community believes in many cases they will.
It’d be great if FR could quit “downplaying” this so much. Many here said “it’ll disappear totally after Nov 3!” It hasn’t, and it won’t. If anything, it’s totally out of control now (as if it was ever UNDER control at any point). Latest estimates I’ve seen is that our current 100K+ cases could be 200K+ (!!!!) cases a day by Thanksgiving, and that our death total could be 500K+ by Feb. Let’s start taking this more seriously so that we can beat it and get our economy back.
When did I suggest shutting down the economy? I NEVER suggested that, or anything like it.
What I DID suggest is that we do more of what’s been recommended all along. Wear DECENT masks (not a single layer of cloth - those are indeed all but worthless). Even surgical masks are decent. Inside AND out. (It’s still “catchy” outside, and it astounds me how few masks I see outside). Do what we can to socially distance and quit doing brain damaged things like going to indoor parties with a bunch of other people. Simple, basic stuff like that. I’m really too emotionally exhausted and frustrated about the election to really bat this back and forth any longer..but the mess we’re in at this point is largely of our own making, because many of us were unwilling to even make simple, really not difficult changes to try to do what we could do to get this under control.
PS: Taiwan (which I’ve mentioned often) NEVER SHUT DOWN. They’ve had seven (!) deaths to date. Few cases. Guess what they do? Yeah..they don’t bitch and moan about masks, and wear them indoors and out. They also do actual contact tracing (vs the very anemic contact tracing we pretend to do). Repeat: they NEVER. SHUT. DOWN. Nor do we need to.
Don’t kid yourself. They will still be used to destroy this country.
The flu affects everyone differently. People without co-morbidities die every year from it. I sincerely doubt you know “multiple people” that are truly hospitalized. Then again, you may be truthful. Veracity is pretty elusive on the internet. I do truly know 3 people that had it and they recovered in days with their greatest complaint being the temporary loss of smell and taste. Then again I may not, right? Anyway, in the meantime, enjoy your perpetual face shackling and be sure you get that vaccine. Oh wait, it won’t be optional. I’m sure you will root for that government ordered mandate. Before I posted this, I read your post 12, and lo and behold, you know yet another Covid victim, apparently permanently disabled from it. Are you in a New York nursing home?
Of course it was used to negatively attack President Trump, and the economy he had helped explode due to his actions of taking away regulations that had been stifling it, along with tax changes etc.
I’m glad you recovered quickly, most do though as we all know, if you are healthy with a fully functioning immune system. 8>)
Yes that is utter BS, and the author says so. 8>)
Yeah, the deaths are skewed big time, because not all of those people died from the Wuhan virus. Some may not have even been tested to see if they had the Wuhan virus when they died. If you believe that crap being generated by WorldMeters than you think this virus is really something to be concerned about. Well if you have a co-morbidity it is, but the vast percentage of the population does not have a co-morbidity, and survive just fine.
Still think it’s not a Chinese BioWeapon?
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