Posted on 11/07/2020 10:34:42 AM PST by Namyak
TL:DR- Biden's numbers in PA mail-in votes are unbelievable. Compared to other states, he would have to have won 100% of all democrat party mail-ins, 7% of Republicans, and 98.5% of all independent mail-ins, completely out-of-line with other state returns.
Ran some numbers (sources are https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ and https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html)
The party break-down of returned mail-in ballots in PA was:
64.8% Democrat
23.7% Republican
.8% minor parties
10.7% Independent.
Returned numbers were:
1,694,719 Democrat ballots returned
620,282 Republican
19,873 Minors
280,171 Independent
The current number of mail-in votes counted so far is 2,536,759. The total of the numbers I gave you previously is 2,615,045, so apparently there are 78,286 left to count.
The current tally for mail-in ballots is:
Biden= 1933759
Trump= 579174
Jo= 23826
or, in percentage:
Biden (1933759/2536759)= 76.2%
Trump (579174/2536759)= 22.8%
Jo (23826/2536759)= .01%
Do you see the problem yet? Democrats returned 64.8% of total mail-in ballots, but Biden is currently winning mail-ins by a margin of 76.2%. Assuming that not a single one of those outstanding mail-in votes is for Biden, they are all for either Trump or Jo, Biden needs to have won an additional 239,040 mail-ins from somewhere as of today. Trump under-performed with Republican mail-in votes by 41,108, so we'll say those were Republicans voting for Joe Biden and all Republican mail-ins yet to be counted are for Trump. Now he needs 197,932 votes. We will further assume that every single minor party vote went for Jo, and give her the difference from the independent pile to get her total. That leaves 276,218 from the independent mail-ins. Now, we still have the problem of those 78,286 left to count and remember we're assuming that none of those are for Biden (I should state that the reason I am assuming that is because if there are still Biden votes to be counted the math becomes even more unbelievable). So, we'll assume those 78,286 are all independents not voting for Biden that have not been counted. That leaves... 197,932. So, in order to square the number of ballots returned with the number of ballots counted as of today and Biden's margin of victory, Biden needs to have won 100% of the democrat mail-in total, 7% of the Republican mail-ins, and split the independent vote with Jo 98.5% to 1.5%, with the additional 78,286 votes yet to be counted being for Trump or Jo. The only way you can try and square the numbers more realistically is by giving Biden even more of the Republican vote and giving Trump more of the independent vote, but Biden must always receive a solid 100% of the democrat vote as counted today or nothing works.
The Secretary of State is a hyperpartisan cheat. This was not a fair election.
Interesting how some counties have more ballots turned in than registered voters.
Yes. Now do the same thing for some down ticket races. Was either of PA's Senators up for election? Their Governor? Did any House races change accordingly? Any statewide Propositions?
This kind of statistical analysis is useful, but not dispositive. We need real evidence of fraud, and I believe there are affidavits signed by election officials in PA alleging fraud. That is more persuasive than some mathematical analysis with no baseline comparison.
Republicans: “This makes no sense. It can’t be true. Anyone can see the fraud of this election.”
Democrats and media and state legislatures and Courts: “So?”
I would hope the republicans could take it to SCOTUS and prove the cheating. However, I have noticed their tendency to show up at court not fully prepared and lose because of a lack of evidence and poorly presented arguments. Rudy is way past his prime and we need a fresh faced younger lawyer who has it on the ball. I think Barrett was God sent and may be our only hope. Them dems new this was coming and though they had it in the bag with turncoat Roberts until Ginsberg finally did us a favor. If that does not happen the we have to rely on another turncoat, McConnell, who is the biggest swamp rat in the party. God help us!
I have a question. Since a large number of these ballots were brought into the counting places in the wee hours of the morning, are there members from both parties there when the stuff arrives, or are only Democrats there when this crap comes in? I don’t know what the situation is, that’s why I’m asking. No ballots should be accepted for counting unless members of both parties are present, and their receipt is officially verified by members of both parties.
Disagree, the Republicans are well prepared, they are just presenting their cases in front of partisan Democrat judges.
Write to them with your calculations (which are very good, by the way). Send them your info!
I agree, it’s circumstantial evidence... but its damning circumstantial evidence. It’s like trying to prove financial fraud. You notice a preponderance of unusual results and then you drill down and investigate...
These ding bats with TDS have no clue whom they voted for.
There’s no evidence of large GOP defections, from suburbia or anywhere else.
Trump gained 7 million votes, he didn’t lose any segment of his base.
What needs to be explained is how Biden legitimately got 75 million votes. Who were they?
Unless we can put up something substantial,we are stuck with this and it makes me furious,sick and sad.
In states where fraud wasn't needed, Trump did very well in the suburbs. For example in my county in NYS which borders on NYC, Trump was the first Republican to win the county since the 1980's.
The problem in other locations isn't suburban Karens. The problem is fraud.
Exactly! Any analyzing of the results beyond fraud is useless.
Trump kept his 63 million base, then added 7 million. His #s with every demo went up.
The only question is how did Biden the cadaver get 75 million votes when he got less Hispanics,blacks, gays, Jews, Catholics and evangelicals? No one has even attempted to explain that
Very interesting. Please present your findings to someone who can use them in the battle to come.
I was stunned to learn that my Northern Virginia precinct went for Trump (a little over 50%). This in spite of nearly unanimous yard sign support for Biden. This is a deep blue area that went overwhelmingly for Hillary.
Doesn’t make sense.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.