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Biden is favored to win the election (Nate Silver from 538) 11-01-2020
538 ^ | November 1, 2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; Society; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: natesilver
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To: MinorityRepublican

Trump voters will turn out en Masse Tuesday.
If I have to stand in line for hours to vote for Trump, I will.
Biden voters will not wait in line for hours to vote.
The Supreme Court will stop the illegal vote by mail counting
after the polls close.
And Trump will win re-election.


21 posted on 11/01/2020 6:05:24 PM PST by tennmountainman (TThe Liberals Are Baby Killers)
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To: Pearls Before Swine

his model has 50-50 chance for OH


22 posted on 11/01/2020 6:05:41 PM PST by janetjanet998
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nate, the only track record you have is being wrong.

Your ridiculous predictions mean squat yo me!


23 posted on 11/01/2020 6:05:49 PM PST by Artcore (Trump 2020!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nate deserves 5 .38s.


24 posted on 11/01/2020 6:06:40 PM PST by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I think the odds are greater that Trump will win MI than he will PA. PA is just too much of an unknown with voter fraud. In an honest election, your map would have a good deal more Red.


25 posted on 11/01/2020 6:07:32 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: MinorityRepublican

Am I the only one who thinks Trump is going to win Virginia?


26 posted on 11/01/2020 6:08:27 PM PST by Ge0ffrey
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To: Ge0ffrey
Am I the only one who thinks Trump is going to win Virginia?

He's not going to win Virginia. It's just like Maryland now due to NoVa.

27 posted on 11/01/2020 6:09:02 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
Nate Silver is a fraud through and through.
He's blown 3 super Tuesdays predictions in row, not to mention blowing two prior general elections.
He pretends to be a “guru” in an industry he knows nothing about. But a whole lot of left wing billionaires fund his failures as long as he keeps coming out with these “analysis” that always has the Democrats winning, and helps to suppress Republican votes.
Silver is as much a Soros creature as the rest of them.
Just ignore anything he has to say.
28 posted on 11/01/2020 6:09:16 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: MinorityRepublican

Really? The Dems aren’t taking the Great Lake States for granted? How do you figure that when Biden has been locked down most of the time, and when he is out, he can’t draw flies!

The Dems are taking a lot for granted, and trusting these bull sh*t polls once again.


29 posted on 11/01/2020 6:09:16 PM PST by Artcore (Trump 2020!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I think Dinesh Desousa had the best explanation: “they are all doing their part”. They being the Democrap party and it’s operatives, their media arm, pop culture and sports celebs, tech giants, and Wall St. - the entire Ruling Class. They are of one mind, one culture, one set of values, and hole a common disdain for We The (Deplorable) People.

So in their bubble it is better to go down mouthing the party line than to start backpedaling and showing weakness and insecurity. In a world of blue pillers, nobody want to be the first to take the red pill.


30 posted on 11/01/2020 6:09:59 PM PST by bigbob (Trust Trump. Trust the Plan)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Ten minutes ago I talked with my boy near Salt Lake City, UT. He was almost agog (unusual) over a Trump Train of autos he just saw - “Never seen anything like it in my life.”

Couple that, plus other Trains, and add in the mind-boggling photo of the crowd in Butler, PA, and I’m calling Nate’s predictions not only utter hogwash but predict myself that President Trump will beat Biden so badly that no amount of cheating will save him - and that’s saying a lot from this cynic.


31 posted on 11/01/2020 6:10:38 PM PST by Oatka
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To: pnut22

>>A red tsunami is coming.<<

Trump received 306 EC votes in 2016. His base has not eroded.
Trump’s support has firmed and grown.

I think he’ll receive 320+.


32 posted on 11/01/2020 6:10:57 PM PST by servantboy777
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To: MinorityRepublican
@Peoples_Pundit
·
31 Oct
Riddle me this...
I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.
Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...
Who am I?

Answer: Nate Silver, the biggest fraud in the polling business right now.

33 posted on 11/01/2020 6:11:47 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: CatOwner
I think the odds are greater that Trump will win MI than he will PA. PA is just too much of an unknown with voter fraud.

In Michigan, you have Detroit.

34 posted on 11/01/2020 6:12:09 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Massive Trump Caravans Swarm Sunday Roadways Coast to Coast…https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/11/01/massive-trump-caravans-swarm-sunday-roadways-coast-to-coast/

Check out the pics .... this is all “organic” ... patriotic Americans showing their support, not organized by the RNC. Ever seen anything like this?


35 posted on 11/01/2020 6:14:41 PM PST by Qiviut (Fox "News": Unfair, Unbalanced & Unhinged.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Andrew Breitbart said it best:
https://youtu.be/yodMnFvjq04

WAR!


36 posted on 11/01/2020 6:14:48 PM PST by mkleesma
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To: pnut22

Nate is a left wing pundit who pretends “math” makes him something else...

He’ll be eating crow once again this year


37 posted on 11/01/2020 6:17:18 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: MinorityRepublican

Detroit is roughly 6.5% of the population in MI. Philadelphia is roughly 12.5% of the population in PA.


38 posted on 11/01/2020 6:19:45 PM PST by CatOwner
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I don’t even listen to Biden anymore. I don’t care what he has to say. Only interested in Trump.


39 posted on 11/01/2020 6:20:49 PM PST by Mozilla (The Reckoning Day Is Near.)
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To: Ge0ffrey

I think it’s possible to win Va but not likely.


40 posted on 11/01/2020 6:21:10 PM PST by pnut22
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