Posted on 10/26/2020 11:36:11 AM PDT by Capt. Tom
This is a big week for the cruise line industry. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) ban on sailing -- the infamous "No Sail Order" -- is set to expire on Saturday night. Will Carnival (NYSE:CCL)(NYSE:CUK), Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NASDAQ:NCLH) finally receive regulatory clearance to get back to the cruising business?
The cruise lines don't currently have any stateside sailings scheduled until the start of December, giving them all of November as a buffer from the order if it does in fact expire. With COVID-19 cases inching higher it wouldn't be a surprise if the CDC extends the deadline. What started originally as a 30-day ban on March 14 has been pushed out three times this year, with the length of the extensions varying along the way. In short, Halloween is going to be trick-or-treat time for the industry.
Bobbing for departure dates Cruise lines would love nothing better than to start sailing again, especially in time for the seasonal spike in holiday cruises near the end of the year. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line have scaled back on the number of cruises that are currently scheduled to restart operations in December, and it's just as well. Consumer confidence will take time to win back.
Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line recently headed up a panel offering recommendations for the safe resumption of cruising operations. The Healthy Sail Panel's stiff guidelines, put out last month, weren't enough to keep the CDC from extending its No Sail Order last time around. The CDC may also want to extend the ban beyond October to see how the presidential election plays out on Nov. 3. It was earlier reported that the CDC wanted to push the ban all the way into early next year, but only extended the No Sail Order through the end of October under pressure from the current administration.
The odds are not in the industry's favor to start sailing anytime soon right now, but an extension of the sailing ban isn't a slam dunk. The travel industry keeps inching its way back to normal operations despite the global uptick in COVID-19 cases. Airlines -- where passengers spend a lot more time sitting within six feet of strangers than a typical cruise ship dining or leisure activity -- have started to sell middle seats again. Some regions are starting to ease up on their travel restrictions. Resort hotels are marketing their destinations again.
It's just a matter of time before regulators give cruise lines a shot at staying afloat, at least for long enough to see if the new health and safety measures make a difference. Shareholders have experienced brutal year-to-date losses in the three stocks, but that obviously isn't the driving factor at the CDC. It wants to keep people safe, and if it does take chances now it's more to recover the jobs that have been displaced, a situation that's made even worse given the global recession. If the CDC finally gives cruising a chance to prove that it can be done safely in the new normal, it will be more about heeding the leisurely pursuits of passengers that have been interrupted for seven months than the gains and losses of its shareholders. No matter where you stand on the matter, Halloween is coming. It's trick-or-treat time for Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line.
Between now and the election results in early Novenber, that election is going to be life changing in many respects for this country.
And for those interested in cruises in a few days the CDC will will have to tell us about its plans for the Cruise Industry .
IMHO there will be repercussions and Cruise line bankruptcies for reorganization, if our CDC extends their shutdown in this country into 2021.
We won't have to wait long for these two life changing decisions.-Tom
I havent had the Wu Hu Flu but I sure have suffered health wise this year due to it ...emotionally and psychologically...
A doctor would recommend a sea voyage...
YES!!!
I NEED A CRUISE !!!!
THE CDC THINKS IT’S GOD!!!! They need to be TAKEN TO THE WOOD SHED!!!
My friends were booked on a Royal Caribbean Nov. 1st cruise that was cancelled only 2 weeks ago.
Not just cruising, but the entire vacation industry.
No surprise Hawaii’s unemployment is 15%.
You will have a good idea of your December cruise situation because in a few days the CDC will have to make an announcement on their next move or let the no-sail order expire and the cruise ships can proceed with the trips.
Don't forget Donald Trump will still be the President in December, no matter the outcome of the November election. -
My cruises are all cancelled for this year...the next is out of Tampa in Jan...
Regardless of one’s opinion as to cruises...the issue here is going to be, what happens on day 2 of a 5-7 day cruise, the ship has left Ft. Lauderdale and is pulling into Georgetown, the Bahamas, and a few pax come down with this thing. Bahamas probably will not let the ship dock, gotta go back to Lauderdale, everyone expects a refund, and it’s a disaster all around.
Pres. Trump will be in office until noon Jan. 20 if he loses the Election.
I believe Pres. Trump will win reelection for two reasons -because Biden is not as strong a vote getter as Hillary .(She got more votes than Trump)(Trump won on the Electoral votes.)
Also Trump was not as well liked as he is now, with 4 years experience in the White house.
Time makes all things clear. -Tom
-PJ
Because of he incessant testing shore and afloat embarking and disembarking disasters are guaranteed.
If a couple flies to another country to board a cruise ship and one of them tests positive just before departure and won't be allowed on the ship but the other traveler with them tests negative, what do they do?
There is no end to these problems like what happens when the people who got off the ship that morning have some of them test positive? etc. -Tom
a friend should have made Diamond on her next cruise that and several others since old and new this year were cancelled...
Well if theyre going to go out of Rome or Venice they better not go anywhere else first...You have to have that neg test done 72 hours before you ARRIVE in Italy...
I should have been in Naples today...Pompeii ...been there several times but they keep excavating more...
Ann Archy wrote: “THE CDC THINKS IT’S GOD!!!! They need to be TAKEN TO THE WOOD SHED!!!”
Don’t blame the CDC completely. You may find this difficult to believe but these shutdowns are very popular with a significant portion of the population.
Absolutely agree. Just for context, I spent a total of 10 mos aboard an RCCL ship as a musician. There are endless scenarios imaginable. Not to mention that people book these cruises well in advance and New Yawkers, especially, seem to think the good thing is to book a cruise (even last minute) to help them get over “a cold”.
But if you’re a cruise line and have a dozen ~~$1 billion/ea ships floating around doing nothing.....
But if you’re a cruise line and have a dozen ~~$1 billion/ea ships floating around doing nothing.....
Although RCCL is a little smaller than CARNIVAL Cruise line Carnival Corporation has been losing around $700 million a month over the course of the pandemic to date.
I realize all of he big 3 cruise lines have money in the bank but they are operating on borrowed money and could be forced into bankuptcy by crediors if this cruise shutdown continues much longer, with the Cruise lines having little or no income.
All the cruise lines are in trouble at the same time so it is just about impossible to sell ships or rent ships to other cruise lines , as the other Cruise lines are in economic difficulty also and subject to the same problems .
Seems like a good time to be in the ship scrapping business. - Tom
Let the cruise line decide if they want to sail. Let the crew decide if they want to serve. Let the passengers decide if they want to cruise.
Are we adults who can make rational decisions or not?
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