Posted on 10/15/2020 4:45:41 PM PDT by scrabblehack
Abraham Wald was a Hungarian mathematician, but his work with statistics in 1943 would prevent the Navy armoring exactly the wrong places on planes, saving the lives of countless flight crews who likely would have been shot down if their most vulnerable parts were left exposed.
....
As Jordan Ellenberg wrote in How Not To Be Wrong, there was a running joke in the SRG that Wald's secretaries had to rip notepaper out of his hands as soon as he finished writing on it because he didn't have the clearance to read his own work.
....
So the only planes the Navy was looking at were the ones that had landed back at ship or base. So, these weren't examples of where planes were most commonly hit; they were examples of where planes could be hit and keep flying, because the crew and vital components had survived the bullet strikes.
Now, a lot of popular history says that Wald told the Navy to armor the opposite areas (or, told the Army Air Corps to armor the opposite areas, depending on which legend you see). But he didn't, actually. What he did do was figure out a highly technical way to estimate where downed planes had been hit, and then he used that data to figure out how likely a hit to any given area was to down a plane.
What he found was that the Navy wanted to armor the least vulnerable parts of the plane. Basically, the Navy wasn't seeing many hits to the engine and fuel supply, so the Navy officers decided those areas didn't need as much protection. But Wald's work found that those were the most vulnerable areas.
(Excerpt) Read more at wearethemighty.com ...
I heard Dr. Marc Siegel on Fox News today saying that the first people to be vaccinated should be health care workers then the most vulnerable after that.
Why not the least vulnerable?
As I say, bear with me.
A few months before he died, my dad and I got talking. He said he was not going to get a flu shot because he had gotten one the previous year and he felt it nearly killed him.
I think he was on to something. The last time I had a flu shot, the side effects seemed almost as bad as getting the flu.
I am not a medical researcher, so maybe I'm full of crap. But am thinking if you've got comorbidities, you don't want to be among the first to get the vaccine.
I suppose my thesis is, "How bad of a comorbidity can you have and still withstand the vaccine?" So start with the least vulnernable and work your way up.
“Why not the least vulnerable?”
Because the least vulnerable may get only a sniffle and need to take a day off from work.
I have never gotten a flu shot, and never will.
The last time I was sick was a little less than 4 months after joining FR.
Bkmk
“The last time I was sick was a little less than 4 months after joining FR.”
That’ll teach ya
I think that’s the point. If we start with the most vulnerable and many of them get sick and die, the vaccine will be stopped in its tracks and everybody will go back to the drawing board.
In place of Hungarian mathematician, you could substitute anyone with half a brain.
The first people to exclude from COVID-19 vaccines, to prioritize initial stocks, are anyone who already has antibodies, regardless of whether they ever had symptoms.
Think anyone will get tested first? Me neither.
A great book.
““The last time I was sick was a little less than 4 months after joining FR.””
Can you prove it wasn’t FR?
First time I ever saw an OP hijack his own thread!
In this battle (based in your comparison):
The planes in combat should be protected as well as possible.
The planes most susceptible to being shot down should be grounded.
The planes not in combat should be allowed unrestricted flight.
The only time I got the flu was when I got a flu shot. Not the virus in the vaccine, but the real flu. Was in my 20s and it almost killed me then.
Can you prove it wasn’t FR?
I had Wuhan chicken for dinner that night?
The Sauk Cutter polio vaccine problem was before my time.
I was around to see what happened with the first flu shots in 1976. Never have gotten one, nor been sick. If the flu gets me now, I’m old enough it won’t statistically matter much.
If you are 80 with comorbidities, you should get your will in order and get right with God before worrying about vaccines.
“...if their most vulnerable parts were left exposed.”
I know what THAT means to me.
I thought the same, but got caught up in POTUS Trump debating his town hall moderator so was delayed.
Sounds like a fairy tail to me. Survivor bias can trip up a lot of people, but it is obvious to enough people that it would not cause the mistake described.
I call bullsh!t.
“Now, a lot of popular history says that Wald told the Navy to armor the opposite areas (or, told the Army Air Corps to armor the opposite areas, depending on which legend you see).”
By 1943, the U.S. Army Air Corps had become the U.S. Army Air Forces.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.