Georgia mail-in voting observations

Twitter @electproject ^ | October 4, 2020 | Michael McDonald

[bort]

Georgia VBM numbers appear promising for Trump. Superficially, Democrats have a large lead in requested and returned VBM ballots. Black voters have requested 31% of VBM ballots, and have returned roughly 33% of VBM ballots, a number a little above their voter registration %. Not surprising as there is a well-funded black senate candidate on the ballot AND the DNC/state party have been pushing VBM. However, there is a lot of good news. First, men are returning a higher share (14.4%) of their VBM than women (13.2%). Second, Fulton County (Atlanta) voters have only returned 5% of their VBM as compared to 14% average state-wide. (continued below).

[bort]

82% of VBM ballots have been cast by those over 55 years of age--in other words, by "super-voters" who show up to vote every election. 90% have been cast by 45 y/0 or above. Only 21% of VBM ballots have been cast by those who did not vote in 2016, a somewhat low number when you consider the population growth and influx of people to metro-Atlanta. In the rural, predominantly white counties of north Georgia, VBM return %s are almost double the state average. In short, VBM voters are overwhelmingly older voters, men are out-voting women by %, and the rural counties are returning their ballots at a healthy pace. The black VBM number is better for Dems in Ga. than N. Carolina at this point. Bottom line: Good news. Discuss...

[bort]

Ping

[McGavin999]

Does anyone know if there is any truth to people saying older voters prefer Biden?

[Sarah Barracuda]

Older people want Communism, yeah I dont think so

[ClearCase_guy]

My fear — and I don’t think I am alone is this:

x number of people vote in person
y number of people vote by mail
z number of non-existent people vote by computer algorithm which is facilitated by the “noise” of vote by mail. These may show us as VBM even if the USPS never touched them.

The size of X and Y don’t matter much because the size of Z drowns it all out. That’s how Joe expects to win.

[silverleaf]

Still assuming every Black vote is for Biden?

[bort]

Still assuming every Black vote is for Biden?
_____________________________________________
Not at all. In fact, my gut says that the fact that men are currently out-returning their ballots vs. women may suggest an up-surge in conservative, black male voting. Nonetheless, you have to go by the past, and the past is that the outcome of Georgia’s elections hinge on black vs. white turnout. BTW, I don’t believe for a second that Trump will get a huge % of black vote. Anybody who tells you he will get 15% or more of the black vote is smoking weed. But can he go from 8% to 11%? Absolutely.

[reasonisfaith]

The Trump vote is astronomical.

[reasonisfaith]

What about going from 8% to 13%?

[laconic]

If Trump gets 15 percent of the black vote then that means Biden gets 85 percent or a 70 percent margin. That’s a lot better than GW Bush’s 8 and 11 percent, respectively. So if one million black votes are recorded in GA, this means that Biden’s margin is 700,000 rather than the 840,000 that a Bush eight percent share for Trump would indicate.

[Lod881019]

The guy is running ads about Trump cutting social
Security nonstop despite this guy actually voting to tax
Social security twice you wonder if trumps own campaign even cares anymore

[McGavin999]

One of the problems is Trump doesn’t get any big money donations and we small donation people are just not enough to buy all that TV time.

[TribalPrincess2U]

Only the ones like senile Byedone.

[lasereye]

How are these numbers determined? I don’t think Georgia is compiling ballots by race, age etc.

[bort]

What about going from 8% to 13%
—————————————
Yes, that could happen, especially if black turnout drops because of China Virus and lack of enthusiasm for Biden.

[Southern Sam]

A little known fact is that Georgia has the most conservative black voting population. In 2016 25 percent of Georgia blacks voted for Trump. This was the highest than any other state.

[bort]

In Georgia Trump will get a much higher % of the black vote than nationally because southern blacks are more conservative. Herscell Walker like. There is some evidence from North Carolina that Republican and Unaffiliated black men are over performing in VBM.

[bort]

Very true. Religion and military. Plus football. Black men especially are ok with Trump.

[bort]

How are these numbers determined? I don’t think Georgia is compiling ballots by race, age etc
——————————————————————-
Yes, they do. The southern states are required under the Voting Rights Act to keep track of racial data on registered voters. This information is coming from the state board of elections

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Does anyone know if there is any truth to people saying older voters prefer Biden?”

I’ve seen the polls. But this is really hard for me to believe.

Seniors citizens are ok with defunding the police and BLM riots? I don’t think so.