Still assuming every Black vote is for Biden?
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Not at all. In fact, my gut says that the fact that men are currently out-returning their ballots vs. women may suggest an up-surge in conservative, black male voting. Nonetheless, you have to go by the past, and the past is that the outcome of Georgia’s elections hinge on black vs. white turnout. BTW, I don’t believe for a second that Trump will get a huge % of black vote. Anybody who tells you he will get 15% or more of the black vote is smoking weed. But can he go from 8% to 11%? Absolutely.
What about going from 8% to 13%?
If Trump gets 15 percent of the black vote then that means Biden gets 85 percent or a 70 percent margin. That’s a lot better than GW Bush’s 8 and 11 percent, respectively. So if one million black votes are recorded in GA, this means that Biden’s margin is 700,000 rather than the 840,000 that a Bush eight percent share for Trump would indicate.