Posted on 09/30/2020 4:47:14 PM PDT by LS
Several things here for everyone.
First, don't know if you all caught this but earlier in the week Rush read a letter from a friend. This friend had received a letter from a pollster (so this is 3d hand . . . take it as you will). BUT:
The pollster told this guy that the reason the polls were so off, yet "appeared" to be more in line with the D/R splits was because they were actively seeking out zip codes that were SUBURBAN for Republicans, where they knew they'd reach higher levels of Karens and RINOS; and they deliberately avoided calling any rural R areas.
Second, when they called DemoKKKrats, they stayed away from Trump districts, industrial, manufacturing, so they eliminated all those Trump supporters. He said in that way they could pretend their polls were still "fairly sampled" but really weren't.
Second, Bruce Stanford on Twitter said something today that was pretty interesting. He predicted a low turnout election. Now, this actually seems reasonable but it will be a U curve: High DemoKKkrat turnout, high Republican turnout, not many Is or unlikely voters. The China Virus will keep some back. I think that they are genuinely torn between liking Trump for the economy prior to COVID, but disliking their current situation, and thus may stay home. Quite possible. Do the Rs win this low turnout war? Seems the likely scenario.
Finally, a little plug: tonight I'm doing a 1-hour webcast on "American Elections: The Close, The Controversial, the Groundbreaking," all free. Register here (9:00 EST) https://go.wildworldofhistory.com/american-elections-close-controversial-and-groundbreaking
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/
Here is a fun site. When I put in Trump 15% blacks (12 % actual vote plus 6% stay at home, or 1/2% x 6; Hispanics at 38%; and dropped the share of the 18-24 vote to 31%, Trump is at 306-320.
Three things working against the Dems:
1) their voters are more likely to be afraid to vote in person due to the virus.
2) their voters are more likely to be too lazy to vote by mail.
3) their most energized demo is younger Leftists. Young people don’t know how to mail a letter.
Cheating is the answer to all of these.
It’s amazing that people think cheating is easy. It isn’t. Second of all, every day we see people getting caught. This tells me the fraud level is very, very low, that they aren’t getting away with it. If they were, NO ONE would be getting caught.
As I say, my friends at the OH Board of Elections are always far more concerned about “souls to the polls” than fraud.
It does seem like some are getting caught, lately. That is a good thing. I hope you are correct that the fraud level is very low. Is only the top of the iceberg visible? The good news is that it’s part of the conversation already.
My biggest concern is their ability to do it in a few places like Detroit and Philadelphia. Cheating in California and Massachusetts doesn’t matter.
“The Democrats are absolutely TERRIFIED of “Da Covid”. “
Yes. I play keyboards in a cover rock band with other baby boomers here in Eastern PA. Since covid, we don’t many private parties or bar restaurant gigs anymore because of our Democrat Governor.
The yard parties we do get are Trump supporters who think we should all have gone back to normal many months ago.
Two of the guys in the band drag their feet or say no with comments like:
“What’s with people having big gatherings in the middle of a pandemic? Don’t they believe this shit’s real?”
My answer: “No, because it’s not real - it was all politics to screw up Trump’s election year economy.”
I doubt our band will survive this - two Trump supporters and two Trump haters.
I’ll be voting in person. Which is the smarter move, to wait until election day so dems don’t know about it or vote early so dems don’t vote by mail for me?
Another interesting toggle on that NBC site is the white non-college vote. White college educated voted at 72% in 2016 so not much upside. White non-college was at 55% in 2016, but I would expect that number to rise, which is the meat of the Trump electorate.
[Even though this is sort of a conservative part of the US, I remember seeing more Clinton signs than I do Biden signs.]
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