Posted on 09/05/2020 5:38:01 PM PDT by Libloather
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we're past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden's the favorite.
Yet, it continues to be clear that the national polling will continue to overstate Biden's edge. An examination of the state polls shows a race that, while not a tossup by any means, is closer than the national polls would indicate.
The national polls after the convention tell a pretty clear story. Biden is up by around 8 points. That's what the CNN/SSRS poll shows. That's what the Grinnell College/Selzer and Co. poll has. The average, depending on how you compute it, has basically the same thing.
As I noted last week, elected incumbents rarely gain ground after the conventions. The two biggest gainers in the modern era were Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both picked up about 4 points, which would only cut Biden's edge by about half.
Biden's true lead (or true margin), however, is closer to 5 points. What do I mean by that?
Remember, the only thing that ultimately matters is winning 270 electoral votes in the Electoral College. To understand how easy a path each candidate has, you have to look at the state level polling.
The polling there is not nearly as universally good for Biden. Yes, some of it was good for Biden. He was up 8 points in a Fox News poll of Wisconsin. But a Quinnipiac University poll in Florida had the spread between Biden and Trump at just 3 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
:-)
Electoral landslide and huge riots. We have been warned.
He’s not leading. Don’t believe a word of this.
L
Which poll was that? That should have equated to a double-digit lead for Biden.
LOL! I’m pulling your leg, CatOwner.
Say Hi to your cats for me.
Was listening to an interview of a guy in Market Research - if they didn’t like an answer, they just didn’t report it.
Same with these phoney polls - if the pollsters doesn’t like the answer, they can just throw it away.
Yeah! like zero. Whoever says Biden has a lead on President Trump. That is his ass talking. His head knows better or different.
Here’s another anecdotal story. I was down in L.A. for doctors appointmentand had two people give me a thumbs up for my Trump sticker on my back window. Liberals actually put their stickers on their bumper. Stoopid! AND a woman in the parking lot came up to me and liked the sticker as well. I get way more compliments than not. Maybe I’m too scary for liberals to give me chit.
Joe Biden’s lead is negative.
“If true, Trump’s toast.”
When have the media, their mediot minions and paid trolls on Free Republic ever been honest?
‘while not a tossup by any means, is closer than the national polls would indicate.‘
They toss in that line, which contradicts the headline.
It comes down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin.
I can’t say I’m super positive the PResident wins all 4 this time around.
Harry Joe Enten is an American journalist best known for his role as a senior political writer and analyst for the website FiveThirtyEight and senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics.
Has the Repub ever had a lead in the polls in the last 50 yrs?
************************************************************
Oh my. A skeptic?
You’re not supposed to notice, citizen.
When they call NJ for Trump at 8 O’clock, it’s time to go to bed.
Thank you. I have been saying that forever. I have NEVER seen a repub in the lead in ANY race against the dem. It is ALWAYS the dem ahead by a lot.
They are talking about polls like Quinnipiac which has never been right, ever, and has always leaned, even titled, left.
He has no lead.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.