Posted on 07/19/2020 9:19:28 AM PDT by Signalman
Despite the spate of recent polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, a new shock poll reveals Americans aren’t quite as eager to hand over their freedom as some have said.
According to RealClearPolitics’ latest aggregate of polls, Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 49.6 percent to 40.8. But a poll conducted for the Sunday Express by the Democracy Institute, a Washington-based think tank, reveals Americans aren’t buying the narrative the U.S. media are trying to advance.
Contrary to what the media would have us believe, 77 percent of the 1,500 likely voters surveyed do not view Mount Rushmore as a racist monument. When asked which of two phrases better fit their own thinking about race in America, 29 percent of participants indicated “Black Lives Matter,” and 71 percent marked “All Lives Matter.”
Most notably, rather than showing Biden with a sharp advantage, the survey forecasts a much tighter race, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the national popular vote. Moreover, the Democracy Institute predicts that if the election were held today, Trump would win 309 electoral votes and Biden 229.
State-by-state data isn’t conclusive, considering the limited sample size, but the data indicates Trump is ahead in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The poll puts Wisconsin in the Biden column, while giving Trump Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Trump is considered less likable than Biden. When asked which candidate respondents would be more inclined to invite for a barbecue, 33 percent chose Trump, while 51 percent chose Biden. Sixteen percent said neither. When asked if they believe Biden is in the early stages of dementia, however, 55 percent answered yes, and 40 percent no.
As virtually all recent polls have found, the Democracy Institute identified the massive enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to only 43 percent of Biden supporters. That explains why 81 percent of Trump voters say their choice was “a positive vote for [their] candidate” rather than a “negative vote against his opponent.” For Biden, only 29 percent said it was a positive vote, while a whopping 71 percent said it was negative.
Notably, participants were asked if they were “comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote.” Only 29 percent of Trump voters said yes, versus 82 percent of Biden voters. This “shy” vote phenomenon was one of the reasons polls were so wrong in 2016. Many pro-Trumpers, wanting to avoid stigma, simply won’t tell a colleague or even a pollster whom they plan to vote for.
Fifty-two percent of those surveyed believe Trump will be reelected. While 4 percent of Trump supporters indicated their vote could change by Election Day, 12 percent of Biden backers said they could change their minds.
Other signs bode well for Trump. Although he had no serious competition for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination, his supporters have still turned out in large numbers throughout Republican primaries. Just the News pointed out that in Pennsylvania, for example, 934,524 voted for Trump while only 914,904 voted for Biden. In Ohio, the candidates received 682,843 and 623,186 votes, respectively. In Florida, 86,000 more voted for Trump than for Biden. This pattern began early in the primary season, with Trump significantly outperforming past incumbent presidents in their equivalent primaries.
Moreover, not all of Bernie Sanders’s supporters will vote for Biden. As they did in 2016, some will stay home, and some will vote for Trump. NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reported that “in 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall, according to an analysis of exit polling — well over twice the president’s total margin of victory in those states, which were critical to his electoral vote win in the face of a decisive popular vote loss.”
After the Russian collusion hoax, the impeachment hoax, and everything in between, corporate media has lost a lot of credibility. Americans have recently watched MSNBC’s Ali Velshi tell viewers the Minneapolis riots were “not generally speaking unruly” as an out-of-control fire raged in the background. They saw the Washington governor and Seattle mayor condone an “autonomous zone” set up by anarchists in the heart of the state’s largest city, and they’ve witnessed the toppling of statues of great Americans throughout the country.
It should come as no surprise that most voters do not believe Mount Rushmore is a racist monument, that America is an irredeemably racist nation that must be burned down and rebuilt, nor that Biden’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not everybody is ready to hop on board the socialism train. Thank God for that.
This poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted July 1-3 by the Democracy Institute. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed were Democrats, 38 percent were Republicans, and 24 percent were independents, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.
I think a lot of them are...
I don’t do polls. Quit in 2016.
But GOP has SIGNIFICANT voter registration gains vs Ds since 2016: 200,000 in NC; nearly 200,000 in FL; 13,000 in NV; 10,000 in NM; and after falling behind in 2018, Rs re-took the lead in IA; also about +8,000 in NH.
There is also evidence today from a WI paper that Rs outregistered Ds in both Dane and Milwaukee Counties.
This is the real news. Not polls.
I would love to see the internal polling, which is usually considered to be much more accurate than the public polls.
I spoke with an 88 year old friend yesterday. She said that she thinks that Trump is a jerk and a buffoon, in response to which I said, “Yeah, but I believe you’re gonna vote for him.” Her response was, “You betcha. Hubby and I love his policies and will definitely vote for Trump.”
The poll results have to be fabricated to make the election appear to be close so that demRATs can contest the election results if they lose.
One silent group could be the Asians. Usually the Dems get their votes but in this caustic, turbulent environment they could potentially swing the other way in quiet fashion.
Yet biden is up by 15 points nationally? We are constantly being manipulated by leftist propaganda. Do not believe what is published. Vote for President Trump in November!
JoMa
My guess is, the repeal of Prop 209 in Cali, added to the shutdown and other corruptions, are going to cause the DNC to shift much needed resources at the worst possible time, and the California Asian vote shift will be part of that.
Trump pick fights that I sometimes think are unwise, but seriously, Biden? Biden has not been right about any foreign policy in his entire career, and that was before he was showing obvious signs of senility.
agree-and we can’t sit back and just say-oh he will pull out miracle again, polls are wrong-the trend has not been good for us lately, good news is elections are not held in July
we need to work and pray
Remember folks, most polls don’the contact cell phones because it costs money. How many folks even use their land lines anymore? Polls are useless and advertising tools, which are great if you are selling a car,but lousy if you are electing a President.
...evidence today from a WI paper that Rs outregistered Ds in both Dane and Milwaukee Counties.
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Is there a link for this?
People are constantly being reminded how red the country is...it really isn't all that red. Hillary won only 400 counties and Trump won the rest - about 2,800 counties. Many of those red counties have hardly anyone living in them - they are rural and sparsely populated. It's great to see all that red but the reality is, the urban and populated counties are generally very very liberal. Many voting 80% for the dem, so it is tough to win the popular vote.
DC already gets 3 electoral votes - since 1960 per constitutional amendment when they were first given the right to vote in presidential elections.
That is probably why Biden announced a few days ago that he is going to buy ads in Texas. Follow the ads since they should indicate how a candidate is doing in internal polling.
Most polls call numbers that are randomly generated anyway, so any phone in America has an equal chance of being called, whether cell or landline.
So that, like his first term, the left can try to delegitimize the next four years of the Trump presidency.
Not a lot else makes much sense re these laughable polls.
‘...exactly. If a poll says Trump is winning, Freepers get excited. If one says he’s losing, Freepers go with meaningless.’
everybody does that; human nature...but what is true that polls this far out are utterly meaningless...
I propose that DC be given back to Maryland, so that its Representative in the House would have full voting privileges. That would leave the Senate unchanged, however.
but what is true that polls this far out are utterly meaningless...
= = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Almost right...UTTERLY MEANINGLESS
‘They’ keep ‘cooking the books’ and one should need NO further proof than 2016 when HRC ‘passed out’ from drinking all that ‘victory champagne’ she was 20 points ahead in the poll.
Reminiscent of a Picture of Harry Truman holding up a NEWSPAPER headline:
“Dewey Defeats Truman”
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