Posted on 07/01/2020 10:16:29 AM PDT by Red Badger
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is either slightly ahead or way ahead of Republican Donald Trump with just 13 days until Election Day, according to new polls released Wednesday.
An AP-GFK poll shows Clinton leading by an astonishing 14 points, 51 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, in a four-way race. In a two-way heat, Clinton’s lead narrows to 13 points.
A new Fox News poll finds Clinton ahead by a much smaller margin ― just 3 points ahead in a four-way race, 44 percent to 41 percent. She also leads by 3 points head to head with Trump.
Other recent polls show Clinton with a lead ranging from 2 points to 12 points.
It’s best not to freak out just yet over which of Wednesday’s polls are right. Instead, consider the aggregate of recent polls for a more sober look at the race.
According to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, Clinton is leading by about 7 points in the four-way race, 46.6 percent to 39 percent.
In the head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
Both new polls are consistent with that aggregated result when you consider their margin of error. The Fox News poll has a 2.5-point margin of error. When applied to each candidate’s share of the vote, that means there could be as much as a 5-point fluctuation in the Fox poll margin. The AP-GFK poll has a slightly higher margin of error, also placing its results within the range of what the aggregate shows.
Another reason for variation in the new polls could be the dates the surveys were administered. The AP-GFK poll was conducted Oct 20 to Oct. 24, just after the Oct 19 presidential debate, where Clinton was praised for a strong performance.
The Fox News poll was conducted a few days later, from Oct 22 to Oct. 25. Perceptions of the debate may have been more muted in people’s minds by then.
In addition, the AP-GFK poll was conducted online. Fox used live phone interviews. Each of the pollsters uses different techniques to screen for likely voters.
Regardless, the aggregate of polls confirms that Clinton is winning. Clinton leads in a two-way race in all 36 polls conducted in October. In the four-way race, she’s ahead in 48 of 52 October polls.
The HuffPost Pollster presidential election forecast gives Clinton a 97.5 chance of winning..............
They're at it again...
In retrospect the polls were off, because of the hidden Trump support.
The same may well happen this year.
Ive never been polled, but if I were, in todays climate, I would be reluctant to tell some stranger on the phone that I support Trump.
But Democrat supporters would not be shy about indicating support for Biden.
Ask yourself this: after 4 years of deep-state attempted coup, non-stop insults from the media, oppression and ridicule from academia, corporations, Hollywood, etc..., and the threat of even physical violence from thugs and mobs - are Trump supporters really willing to give their true opinions to pollsters?
That was around the time Jim Comey came out with his first book, making Hilary look less than electable.
He sort of walked it back in a few days, but any damage to Hilary had already been done.
This is misleading. I know people like to point to 2016 for comfort but Trump is down way more to Biden than he was to Clinton in the average of polls. Sure a poll here or there showed Trump down 15pts or something but most showed a closer race and trump actually led a few polls. Trump did well in swing states.
This year EVERY poll is double digits or high single Digits. Biden is up 10pts in the polling average whereas Trump was down about 5 points in the the AVERAGE This time in 2016.
“I would be reluctant to tell some stranger on the phone that I support Trump.”
Agree. Who knows what happens to that data. During the process.
I contend polling has now been basterdized and is being used for something it was never intended for...to sway votes.
Polling should be made illegal punishable by up to 5 years in jail with a minimum of 4 years.
People have even more reason to lie to pollsters than they did in 2016..................
lol....Trump never had a chance.
Here she is celebrating with Bill and Chelsea Election Night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAbKQOjzV44
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