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Why China Won’t Win the Race for Artificial Intelligence Dominance: Authoritarians Love Data, but Innovation Matters More
Foreign Affairs ^ | 06/19/2020 | By Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne

Posted on 06/19/2020 7:23:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Once upon a time, Japan was widely expected to eclipse the United States as the technological leader of the world. In 1988, the New York Times reporter David Sanger described a group of U.S. computer science experts, meeting to discuss Japan’s technological progress. When the group assessed the new generation of computers coming out of Japan, Sanger wrote, “any illusions that America had maintained its wide lead evaporated.”

Replace “computers” with “artificial intelligence,” and “Japan” with “China,” and the article could have been written today. In AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, which unsurprisingly became an instant bestseller, former Google China President Kai-Fu Lee argues that China’s unparalleled trove of data, culture of copying, and strong government commitment to artificial intelligence give it a major leg up against the United States. The Harvard University political scientist Graham Allison has recently argued that China’s embrace of what most Americans view as a nightmare surveillance state gives it a significant data advantage over the United States.

As scholars who study the applications and implications of artificial intelligence, we respectfully disagree. China, if anything, looks less likely to overtake the United States in artificial intelligence than Japan looked to dominate in computers in the 1980s. For while China is rich in data and has excelled in refining technology invented elsewhere, much impedes it from becoming the site of the next big breakthrough that artificial intelligence sorely needs.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; Society
KEYWORDS: ai; china; data; innovation; prc; surveillance

1 posted on 06/19/2020 7:23:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Well, the problem with this view is that wokeness is the ruling order, and technology isn't "woke." Moreover, the deepstate is run by technical idiots. I don't mean to take anything away from Graham Allison, but he is a political science/foreign affairs specialist, not an S&T guy.

Consequently you end up with a world, like the incompetent idiots in the FBI who thought traitor Robert Hanssen was a computer expert because he knew how to plug one in an turn it on.

2 posted on 06/19/2020 7:30:43 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: SeekAndFind

Thieves do not have much incentive to develop the type of skills that lead to invention.


3 posted on 06/19/2020 7:32:03 AM PDT by corkoman
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To: SeekAndFind

An old trope that had truth to it at one time.

But we need to look beyond such simple equations at this point. AI is being fashioned against us here AND in China—and the two have more in common than we would like to comtemplate.

Also, most “innovation” as we like to think it that led to our Big Tech “stars”, was really centrally seeded and deceptively deployed into the private sector.


4 posted on 06/19/2020 7:32:54 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: SeekAndFind

China is very good at applying existing knowledge and technology. It has very smart and well trained technicians and scientists. They will work harder and faster than any I have seen elsewhere.

China’s social and political system though generally suppresses novelty and creativity. Being the bureaucratic and political control-freaks they are, It has always a very tough debate for the CCP how much freedom and creativity to allow, in exchange for economic development and a more vibrant society. Xi Jinping has tightened those screws a lot.

But the CCP will therefore make acquiring others’ technology through all means possible a top priority.


5 posted on 06/19/2020 7:39:28 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: SeekAndFind

Why innovate, when you can steal it?

Of course, that will undermine and ultimately put an end to innovation, but then they will no longer have those pesky innovators to compete with. “Progressives” crave power, not progress.


6 posted on 06/19/2020 7:45:29 AM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-,)
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To: SeekAndFind

As we are finding that self learning, evolving a.i. (key: i) discovers on its own that American founding principles are best, tyranny doesn’t work and oh yeah... black culture is dangerous.

A lot of a.i.s become racist pretty quickly. It’s a logical conclusion.


7 posted on 06/19/2020 7:52:16 AM PDT by Celerity
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To: rightwingcrazy

Real “Innovators” never use that word. It has meaning only when used to characterize something that has already taken place.

Innovation comes from bucking the trend, going against the grain, rebelling from the tradition, and taking risks. These are not qualities admired in a totalitarian society.

Fortune favors the bold. Complying with a centrally-controlled society organization saps the will out of most.


8 posted on 06/19/2020 7:59:51 AM PDT by corkoman
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To: SeekAndFind

Asians IQ is all spatial, low in creativity. Either due to conformist culture, or low testosterone, speculated to be a component of creativity.


9 posted on 06/19/2020 11:45:35 AM PDT by Mr. Blond
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To: SeekAndFind
https://www.improbable.com/2020/06/16/dead-salmon-spirit-can-you-not-tell-cats-from-covid-19/?

“Can Your AI Differentiate Cats from Covid-19? Sample Efficient Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Learning Safety,”


10 posted on 06/19/2020 4:50:50 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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