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The Worst Case Scenario for Real Estate Post COVID-19
Commercial Observer ^ | June 2, 2020 | Nicolas Rizzi

Posted on 06/03/2020 10:24:19 AM PDT by wac3rd

"Scores of apartments could be empty as thousands of renters face evictions after losing their jobs and as millennials in pricey spots like New York and San Francisco flee in search of cheaper pastures.

Major companies significantly downsize, or simply give back their space in favor of remote work. Few tenants will be able to step in to fill their space. A large driver of recent leasing activity, coworking firms, struggle to get new members and are forced to shutter."

(Excerpt) Read more at commercialobserver.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; nyc; realestate; realty; rent
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To: BBQToadRibs
My prediction is that the "work-at-home" model isn't going to last long for employers in many industries. From what I've seen, two things are going to work against it:

1. Loss of productivity -- mainly due to distractions and lack of work discipline.

2. Resistance from employees who are tired of working alone and need some social interaction with other adults.

I think the long-term impact here is going to be a resurgence in the appeal of suburban office space, coupled with a migration of SOME jobs to home-based work environments.

21 posted on 06/03/2020 10:51:49 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("We're human beings ... we're not f#%&ing animals." -- Dennis Rodman, 6/1/2020)
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To: Black Agnes
You can write off a home office on your taxes.

I'm pretty sure that was eliminated in the 2017 tax reform bill for everyone except a person who runs their OWN business out of the home.

22 posted on 06/03/2020 10:53:41 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("We're human beings ... we're not f#%&ing animals." -- Dennis Rodman, 6/1/2020)
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To: wac3rd

What scares me the most is that these left wing morons will move into my neighborhood. I prefer they stay in NYC with the cockroaches and rats. As to real estate prices, they’re grossly inflated anyway-it’s time for a correction.


23 posted on 06/03/2020 10:57:37 AM PDT by Amberdawn
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To: dp0622

Staten Island is in many ways a world away from the other 4 boroughs.


24 posted on 06/03/2020 10:58:56 AM PDT by Amberdawn
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To: Alberta's Child

I’m an underwriter for insurance. I’ve been a remote work from home employee since 2007. There’s about 80 of us in the Underwriting Dept. Prior to COVID a good 70% of us were already remote spread all over west to east coast. Now 100% of us are. I think a few who are local to the Home Office may go back a couple days a week (that’s the talk) but with flex hours remote is a pretty sweet deal.


25 posted on 06/03/2020 10:59:53 AM PDT by BBQToadRibs
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To: Alberta's Child

Oh well, that’s a shame.

At least you can avoid having to drag yourself an hour each way to the office.


26 posted on 06/03/2020 11:00:46 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Fido969

Lol! A REAL fire sale too.


27 posted on 06/03/2020 11:01:08 AM PDT by Amberdawn
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To: Alberta's Child
You couldn't get me to go back to a job there at gunpoint. And that was my attitude before COVID-19. After COVID-19 and the looting of midtown Manhattan, I can pretty much guarantee you that hundreds of thousands -- if not millions -- of other people who were working there before March 2020 feel the same way.

The older people move out of NYC and the younger ones move in.

It's been like that for years.

It was like that for me back when I was in my twenties. And I now know many that age who can't wait to get back to their apartments and to start working in their offices again.

28 posted on 06/03/2020 11:07:52 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Ken H

That’s my biggest concern. My property taxes on 32 acres and a nice (but small) house are $260 a year. That’s why I live here.


29 posted on 06/03/2020 11:28:13 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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To: Alberta's Child

I work for a Fortune 500 financial services firm. The entire firm is work from home since early March when all this started. We are in a relatively new beautiful state of the art office tower with all the bells and whistles. No one on my team and others I have interacted with wants to go back (besides my team manager who is a great guy and misses personal interaction). We are all happier and productivity has increased as well.

A plan to go back is being developed but only 25% of the associates are going to be allowed to return on a volunteer basis due to social distancing. Everyone will be separated by 10 feet and will be required to wear masks and gloves. Access to the break room (and coffee) will be restricted and a bathroom schedule will be enforced. No thanks. I avoid traffic and get 45 minutes of extra sleep every day. I wear sweatpants and a t shirt to work and can hang out with my dog on my lunch break. I have drastically increased the amount of overtime I am working due to the convenience of commuting to my basement so I am making more money and more bonus money. I told my manager when he asked if I wanted to volunteer to go back that I never want to work in the office again. None of my neighbors who are in the same situation want to go back either. Covid has changed things. Maybe forever. This is so much better.


30 posted on 06/03/2020 11:48:22 AM PDT by Big Red Clay (Greetings from the Big Red State)
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To: dp0622
I work on Lexington Avenue near Grand Central and my company announced that we will not return until September or October and will continue working from home in the meantime.

The reason? Was it the looting? Was it the Chinese virus?

Nope.

They decided that they are going to completely remodel our two entire floors of office space!

31 posted on 06/03/2020 11:54:24 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Black Agnes

“You can write off a home office on your taxes.”

I’m not sure that you can anymore. At the least, it’s become a LOT harder since Gramm-Rudmann eliminated a lot of tax deductions in 1986.


32 posted on 06/03/2020 12:15:01 PM PDT by M1903A1 ("We shed all that is good and virtuous for that which is shoddy and sleazy...and call it progress")
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To: M1903A1

You can no longer deduct most expenses if you are a company employee(gets a W-2)working remotely from home. You may still deduct expenses if you freelance or are a contract worker(1099) - - that’s the simple version, see your tax man for finer details


33 posted on 06/03/2020 12:38:21 PM PDT by techrules2002
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To: Ken H

Ken H wrote:

“All they have to do is raise local property taxes and tax everything that isn’t taxed now.

Problem solved!”

More foreclosure and people losing their homes due to not being able to pay.


34 posted on 06/03/2020 1:45:54 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: cuban leaf

cuban leaf wrote:

“That’s my biggest concern. My property taxes on 32 acres and a nice (but small) house are $260 a year. That’s why I live here.”

In Texas, property taxes on a 2600 sq ft house on 1/4 acre runs 5700 a year.


35 posted on 06/03/2020 1:47:27 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: wac3rd

On the flip side of that coin, residential real estate doesn’t appear to be missing a beat here in my part of North Carolina. I don’t know how they managed showings let alone closings during the shutdown but they did. Inventory is short, houses are selling quickly, within weeks if not days, especially in the magical below-$200K category. I guess it’s New Yorkers.


36 posted on 06/03/2020 1:49:09 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: WildHighlander57

Back before the real estate crash when I had plenty of money, I built a lake house here in NC. When completed it appraised at $750k. It was assessed for tax purposes at about 450. Annual property tax was about $3,200.00. Texas taxes on residential real estate are bizarre. They’re right up there with New Jersey and more than make up for the lack of income tax. I guess state governments are just going to get their pound of flesh, one way or the other.


37 posted on 06/03/2020 1:53:20 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: WildHighlander57

It’s $7,000 for my friend in a suburb 30 miles from Seattle. It’s why I moved. I can live out here - comfortably - on SS alone.


38 posted on 06/04/2020 5:05:23 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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To: WildHighlander57

It’s the closest thing to ex-patriating without ex-patriating. :)


39 posted on 06/04/2020 5:05:53 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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