Any model will be useless at present, IMO.
GIGO.
If you don’t have reliable data to use for your model, your model will output unreliable answers.
Too many people are being labeled as dying from this virus and that makes any model mostly useless as far as accuracy is concerned.
How accurate are the tests being performed? What percentage are false positives or false negatives?
Models. Whatever.
So tell us all where a correct model has been in the past.
Be it glo bull warming or this virus, every model put forward has been intended to scare the population into doing what the modelers want us to do and the models have always been way the hell off and totally wrong.
Bull Shit on your model.
Occam’s Razor: An Ivy League school in Philadelphia handing Tom Wolf justification to continue his lockdown.
Check the political affiliations of the mofos behind this Ferguson-like erroneous model........cause these probably are the same mofos that concur with most libtards that we can’t do sh*t till we have a CURE. Yeppers, mail in voting for Presidential election incoming...OMFG!
Just because they want to set their hair on fire doesn’t mean I have to set mine on fire. Now I’m going to go outside and worship Gaia.
Wharton, Trump’s alma mater.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, BLA, BLA, BLA so sick of this BS!! These bastards found a way to destroy the economy and they did it their absolute HATRED of Trump is far more important than OUR livelihoods or businesses and YES it did not matter the rest of the world had to be involved the end justified the means PURE EVIL!!
Boy who cried wolf, anyone?
I am an expert in statistics. I spent my whole life writing statistical software and running analysis. I came up with numerous statistical models on human behavior and I can tell you this. The models can say whatever you want them to say. Tweak the data a very small bit and your result is twice as big or twice as small. Math models are very easy to make and very hard to make right. A good example may be the weather 14 days out. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on those prediction models for weather. But they are no better than a monkey throwing darts.
When someone says that their model predicts a million deaths, its because the makers of the model want it to predict a million deaths. They could have made it show fifty thousand deaths but they did not want it. A model is like an expert, you can find one that will say anything.
So lets just stop and apply a little logic to the situation.
The following are are the facts:
1. We have been dealing with this for two months.
2. Since the beginning there are only 94,167 deaths at the worst (and this number is likely 25% inflated which to to say that the real number is 65,000 — but lets play worst case scenario)
3. Peak death rate was Aparil 15 - April 19 (four weeks ago)
4. March 24 was when we had 1,000 deaths in the US (assuming again the most liberal numbers are correct)
CONCLUSION:
1. In order for this new “ominous” model to be correct, there would need to be an INCREASE in rate by 1.5x over the next 8 weeks
2. The death rate has deteriorated 40% since peak
3. The virus DOES NOT survive on surfaces (CDC yesterday)
4. UV radiation, heat and humidity make environment inhospitable to this virus.
This model does not pass the smell test
Bonius round: Israeli mathematician who modeled a 70 day life cycle irrespective of mitigation techniques appears to have been correct on multiple countries, including ours.
This model is nothing more than something to generate buzz, fear, and promote the school. Modelers are NEVER held responsible, but the impact of the forecast it always high.
This must end.
That’s all?
Nothing, of course. The media will shove it down the memory...
And those models are never wrong!
Just like the global warming models.
Maybe somebody could reveal their model for Deaths = ƒ(Social Distance) or Infections = ƒ(Social Distance).
Has anybody ever exposed this part of their model? I doubt it. It’s just more of “trust us — we have a model.”
“Bend the curve” has become “lets change society permanently”.
The virus is real and its a tragedy. But we have no choice but to get on with our lives. The Economy is by far the bigger problem now.
Hasn’t ‘t the establishment always been telling us ‘’400,000 people a year die from cigarette smoking!’’. Sorry to sound so cold here but first of all this 295,000 figure is conjecture. And even if it’s true, so what?
Sorry folks but after two and a half months of seeing death pretty much day in and day out in the ER I work in I’m inured to it all. Yeah, every one of these deaths is it’s own tragedy but that’s how life is. People die no matter what. “Getting busy dying or get busy living’’. It’s time to start living. Get things moving again ,lets mourn the dead, yes, but for Gods sake and the nation’s lets get back to work.
China has 6 new cases today.
I think it is the same model that they use for the Climate Change Conspiracy. I think they only have one doomsday model that they roll out for every “you’re going to die” event that they gen up.