So lets just stop and apply a little logic to the situation.
The following are are the facts:
1. We have been dealing with this for two months.
2. Since the beginning there are only 94,167 deaths at the worst (and this number is likely 25% inflated which to to say that the real number is 65,000 — but lets play worst case scenario)
3. Peak death rate was Aparil 15 - April 19 (four weeks ago)
4. March 24 was when we had 1,000 deaths in the US (assuming again the most liberal numbers are correct)
CONCLUSION:
1. In order for this new “ominous” model to be correct, there would need to be an INCREASE in rate by 1.5x over the next 8 weeks
2. The death rate has deteriorated 40% since peak
3. The virus DOES NOT survive on surfaces (CDC yesterday)
4. UV radiation, heat and humidity make environment inhospitable to this virus.
This model does not pass the smell test
Bonius round: Israeli mathematician who modeled a 70 day life cycle irrespective of mitigation techniques appears to have been correct on multiple countries, including ours.
This model is nothing more than something to generate buzz, fear, and promote the school. Modelers are NEVER held responsible, but the impact of the forecast it always high.
This must end.
Banner headline at CNN this hour is about “anonymous sources” inside the CDC griping that “Trump has muzzled us”.
A very good day indeed!!