Flubros and Flubras! Day 55 (a place for Flubros and Flubras)

www.freerepublic.com ^ | 13 May 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

It’s just the flu, bro.

As gas_dr pointed out yesterday we are on the backside of this. Worldometer shows a pattern of dropping cases and deaths. There are probably a few ways it can go from here: 1. Steady descent and only a trickle of flare ups over the next year 2. Slow descent as it goes through the Midwest states and then it slowly trickles out in 6 months as we get closer to herd immunity 3. Steady descent and then a Flu-season flare up in November-March causing panic in those states that are prone to panicking Hard to say which is most likely but I sure hope for number 1. Scientists do say this needs 60% to be immune to get herd immunity and scientists also say NYC is only at 25% based on antibody studies. But scientists have been known to be wrong 90% of the time they have spoken about this virus. Does anyone have a forecast for how this will play out - I trust a Flubro prediction more than those crazy scientists in the U.K. who said 2.2 Million Americans would die?

Disgusted to hear talk of no school in the Fall. The paranoia is so strong with some and that is driving these lockdown extensions. I even think the Fearpers we have among us are only a fraction as nervous about CV as some people out there. Kozak et al are not nearly as paranoid and tyrannical as about CV as some libs.

Openthestates.com - anybody check it out? I don’t have Facebook so I can’t really tell how involved they are in organizing protests. The website has Facebook links for each state I think.

[Mom MD]

There is no evidence the lockdown was a medical success. The curve is pretty much the same everywhere regardless of lockdown measures taken or not taken. Then there is the medical cost of closed offices, furloughed nurses and doctors, and all the medical conditions that have gone undiagnosed and untreated due to lack of access or fear over accessing the system

[higgmeister]

I’m not sure what they could have done about the crowded subways, but I doubt that many people were really essential.

Steam clean them top to bottom periodically through the years instead of letting filth and refuse of 150 years continue to accumulate moment-by-moment.

And if you see any gum on the handrails of the subway entrances that's not free candy.

[who knows what evil?]

They just need to man up, rip off the damn bandage, and live life as God intended already.

Nailed it!

[higgmeister]

Then there is the medical cost of closed offices, furloughed nurses and doctors, and all the medical conditions that have gone undiagnosed and untreated due to lack of access or fear over accessing the system

I believe it us much more far reaching in that we have modified the way we interact with business and industry and even our fellow citizens for the foreseeable future.

My daughter told my wife that friends had owned a restaurant and at the end of the year they had closed their inside seating to only do catering.   Now there is nothing to cater.   The husband went to Washington DC to look for a job as that is where he originally came from.   The wife and three children are at home with no money coming in.   Our daughter also learned that another friend signed up for meals for needy children from their children's school, yet they are living an upper tier lifestyle with a six figure income.   Socialists taking advantage of the system as they do best.

Many businesses or even fields of endeavor will never return again.

[Mom MD]

And many lives are ruined as well. The damage of the last few months will take years to know entirely. We have got to stop the madness now before it goes further

[ANKE69]

I find it irritating when people are spreading crap....

Oh my... look who's talking!

[DiogenesLamp]

Oh my... look who's talking!

And somehow you remembered my name, but for me, if I ever knew you, I have forgotten you.

[ANKE69]

Remember your name??
No!
I've been reading your posts!

[DiogenesLamp]

Well i'm sorry, but I haven't been reading yours.

[Cronos]

The lockdowns did prevent the hospitals being overloaded by

1. Reducing the viral load you are exposed to
2. Reduction /Elimination of contact.
3. Identification of Localised Pockets of transmission

So in summary, yes. Massively helps.

All countries that locked down completely ON TIME (i.e. before the first 30 deaths had fewer deaths

[Mom MD]

There is no evidence the lockdown did any of that. No health department t that I have seen did anything to trace transmission except maybe to look for the first case. There was no reduction or elimination of contact when you leave abortion clinics pot shops and the NY subways open. Reduction of viral load makes no sense. If you are exposed you are exposed.

On the other had there are very real measurable harms. Start with the unemployment rate and look at economic production. Then look at the suicide rate. It will take a bit longer fo measure the morbidity and mortality from those who became more ill or died because of inaccessible medical cards or fear of going to the ER/hospital.

Even if you buy the curve was “flattened” by the lockdown no one thinks that the lockdown ultimately prevents cases or deaths. If you think the lockdown worked then the rest of the population that didn’t get it from because of the lockdown will get it when the lockdown is lifted. We can’t stay locked down forever despite what liberals and fearpers wish.

[Cronos]

Thank you for the response.

For the evidence, we need to look at countries that had the virus before it came state-side. In Italy for instance, Bergamo was badly affected as it locked down nearly 2 weeks later than a neighbouring town in Lombardy.

Similarly, the lockdown in South Korea and Taiwan have resulted in far, far fewer deaths per capita.

Relating to the meaasurable harms - that is true in the USA. For some reason the lockdowns in S Korea and Taiwan didn’t affect people that hard.

I don’t “buy” that the lockdown rate was flattened - I compare it say Sweden to Denmark+Norway.

[Cronos]

If you look at the empirical evidence from the 1918-1920 Spanish flu the findings demonstrate a strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the United States. This separate study shows the same - lockdowns emphatically and empirically work

cities that adopted the most aggressive social distancing measures had the highest economic growth after the restrictions were lifted.

Moreover, cities that implemented NPIs 10 days earlier than other cities increased their manufacturing employment by 5% more than those that imposed restrictions later. The difference lasted through to 1923.

Overall they found an additional 50 days of social-distancing was associated with a 6.5% percent increase in manufacturing employment.

[Cronos]

I'll also give examples from the worst hit region - the 27 EU countries + the UK

Countries that went into lockdown early - Austria, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Portugal, Germany were hit far less hard than those who went into lockdown LATE like Italy, Spain, France, the UK and Sweden.

[Mom MD]

Sweden is never did lock down and is doing fine. Remember the goal is not to overwhelm health care - not even the most rabid lockdown proponents think they will affect total cases or deaths. New York locked down early and hard and they are the worst hit in the US. Sorry but I do not see lockdown helping and I see the great harm it has caused.

Worse yet we are long last the peak in this country and should have opened up weeks ago even if you buy that the lockdown helped. The power hungry politicians continue the lockdown slowly lifting their unconstitutional restrictions vowing to drag this on months to over a year for no demonstrable reason. they are compounding the self inflicted wounds on this country that we may never recover from. The better plan from the start would have been to protect the elderly and vulnerable and keep the country open. it’s time to end this charade now.

[Cronos]

Sweden did a suggestion based lockdown. The government suggested working from home, social distancing, masks etc. And the people followed.

Sweden is not “doing fine”. It has three times the cases that Norway+Denmark (combined 10 million, like sweden) has.