Posted on 05/13/2020 4:59:03 AM PDT by impimp
It’s just the flu, bro.
As gas_dr pointed out yesterday we are on the backside of this. Worldometer shows a pattern of dropping cases and deaths. There are probably a few ways it can go from here: 1. Steady descent and only a trickle of flare ups over the next year 2. Slow descent as it goes through the Midwest states and then it slowly trickles out in 6 months as we get closer to herd immunity 3. Steady descent and then a Flu-season flare up in November-March causing panic in those states that are prone to panicking Hard to say which is most likely but I sure hope for number 1. Scientists do say this needs 60% to be immune to get herd immunity and scientists also say NYC is only at 25% based on antibody studies. But scientists have been known to be wrong 90% of the time they have spoken about this virus. Does anyone have a forecast for how this will play out - I trust a Flubro prediction more than those crazy scientists in the U.K. who said 2.2 Million Americans would die?
Disgusted to hear talk of no school in the Fall. The paranoia is so strong with some and that is driving these lockdown extensions. I even think the Fearpers we have among us are only a fraction as nervous about CV as some people out there. Kozak et al are not nearly as paranoid and tyrannical as about CV as some libs.
Openthestates.com - anybody check it out? I don’t have Facebook so I can’t really tell how involved they are in organizing protests. The website has Facebook links for each state I think.
Remember when FR mods wouldn’t put up with trolling, especially when the trolling is in complete support of Democrat and MSM efforts. Bizarre.
Thank you too Doctor...I know you’re in the trenches and I salute you...
About thirty years ago I was in a class where our instuctor, a US Marine Colonel taught me one of my favorite American acronyms...REMF
So you’re only three options are:
1) Steady Descent
2) Slow Descent
3) Steady Descent
LOL Biased much?
Still I hope you’re wrong, and it’s fast descent, but slow or fast rise following reopening are possibilities.
We need some more Fearper’s to roost. He is becoming quite lame and predictable. Where is that Roman moron?
What if the mods are clutchers?
Any rise, or second wave, will be a result of the lockdown. Second wave minimal to nonexistent if there is no lockdown.
Ding ding ding.
And yet all the usual flubro suspects seemingly felt a need to respond to him. :)
Because quarantines cause disease. We would never have any disease if we just made people get up close and personal with everyone else!
I do not know what no one seems to be arguing this, but, Asian flu pandemic of 1957-1958 resulted in a estimated 116,000 deaths in America (followed by the Hong Kong flu with about est. 100,000 American deaths in 1968–69), when at 171,984,000, the population size in 57-58 was about half of what it is now (330,541,000, rounded figures). Meaning that not only was the infection death rate much higher than for COVID-19, but there would have to be about 200,000 COVID-19 est. deaths to be comparable to the Asian flu.
The question then it, where was the response in 57-58 comparative to COVID-19 in proportion to its threat? Yes, the 116,000 deaths in America to the Asian flu was for the whole year, yet even if we reach that (we pray not) for COVID-19 then the extremely restrictive all-ages response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history, except to a degree with the far more deadly (550,000 to 675,000 Americans, or 0.66% of the population) 1918 flu.
Well Technically I guess you can say that. But that just means the first wave would have been at least that much worse.
Very fitting. Liberals: Pro-quarantine to save lives, but for open borders which cost lives, while opening the wombs to take lives.
Self-portrait Kozak?
What number of Americans have died outside of subway range of NYC and outside of nursing homes? And what would the numbers be if NYC had CLEAN subways and we spent the “stimulus” money on protecting the elderly and infirm?
The lock down was a medical success. It came an an economic cost.
In 1957-8 and 1968-9, there was no internet or software with the capability of producing and sharing data, charts and graphs all over the world. ... nor were there 24 hour “news” channels broadcasting their slant.
LOL! Thanks for the howler!!! IIRC, Cuomo said last week that 80% of the chinee woohoo flu patients in NY had been locked down (staying home and doing exactly what big brother said to do). Some success.
NYC was going to be stupid with nursing home patients regardless of whether there was a lock down.
I’m not sure what they could have done about the crowded subways, but I doubt that many people were really essential.
And there was going to be an economic cost whether there was a lock down or not.
Airline traffic was already dropping dramatically.
Restaurant traffic was down.
People were calling in sick.
It’s hard to say what the economic toll would have been without the lock down. But there were some studies from 1918 that indicated that cities that didn’t shut down fared worse economically than cities that did.
I don’t think the lock down was as severe back then. But they did close schools, churches, theaters, and events and limit gatherings.
We got better information on what treatments are working and what are not.
Better Information = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve got better information on nutrition that may work mitigate the illness.
Better Information = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve learned not to send sick patients into nursing homes. :|
Better Information = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve had time to ramp production of PPE and ventilators.
More PPE = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve learned we can’t rely on tests or PPE out of China.
Don’t Rely on China = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve got antibody tests now.
Antibody Tests = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
We’ve got better reporting systems in place so that many local communities can better assess how safe it is.
Better Reporting = 83,425 TOTAL DEAD
And Trump and I still believe the lock down saved over a million lives.
“Ego ergo Id” cuz...meh, Trump.
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