Posted on 05/12/2020 4:16:43 PM PDT by Lazamataz
The old chestnut, that American presidential elections are won on the fullness of the people's wallets, has been proven over the centuries to be accurate. The economy often influences whether an incumbent president, seeking re-election, will prevail and gain a subsequent term.
The global Covid-19 response is leading many to think that the world is facing a deep depression. The economy, being hobbled in a serious way, will be down quite a bit. That, muse pundits across the political spectrum, is likely to cause President Trump to fail in his bid to be re-elected.
While in normal times, this may be a reasonable conclusion, I'd like to offer another perspective: That this crisis may, in fact, help President Trump get his second term.
This crisis is perceived to be so severe as to be akin to wartime. In wartime, history shows us that no President has been defeated during a war. In two cases -- Truman and Johnson -- the attempt to be re-elected was abandoned, but not one time has a president been defeated during ongoing hostilities.
Abraham Lincoln had an illuminating quip that explained the phenomenon: "It is not best to swap horses while crossing the river.” This quote succinctly captures the reason people may tend toward the safe choice, the known quantity. People don't want to be surprised by a new direction by a new leader, in most cases. As a piece of supporting evidence, look at the fact that President Trump's approval ratings are at an all-time high.
I take the opposite view offered by the mainstream press. I believe that President Trump has a very good chance to be re-elected, and I believe that this stems in no small part to the fear of adopting a new leader during this time of hardship.
“My only fear is the economy.”
~~~
Mine is election fraud.
==
Ditto....on the election fraud.
That’s what ALL of the blue states are pushing for. Pretty obvious.
Everyone knows that Trump had THE greatest economy, in DECADES, if not ever....and, that this Wuhan Flu pandemic is NOT his fault.
I blame the CCP for ALL of the global economic devastation and deaths from China Flu.
Vote Trump for unprecedented prosperity.
Vote Dem for more China Flu malaise.
Oh yes, her ridiculous, incredibly stupid decision to stop people from purchasing seeds and gardening supplies, in the spring when everyone wants to be outside, gardening, enjoying the sunshine, warm spring breezes etc. was ridiculous.
People demand that right!
This decision was so unconstitutional, it’s not even funny.
Well, now that isn't true. There were problems with the economy, and certain aspects of it, that pre-dated, and had nothing to do with Obama.
Look, presidents get more blame and more credit for the economy and other big factors.
Clinton wasn't responsible for the great economy in the later half of the 90's, but he got the credit.
Herbert Hoover wasn't responsible for the Great Depression, but he gt the blame.
Point being, voters often have a visceral response.
Winston Churchill warned the U.K. of the dangers of Germany early, then he lead the country to a victory in WWII. Two months later, he got beat in a landslide.
And then there is dementia Biden.
Don’t switch horses in mid-stream... true then - true today. Great post Laz...
The Democrats don’t really have anything going for them. No ideas to move the country forward, no policies to secure our nation, and no viable candidates that can match Trump’s accomplishments and enthusiastic base of support. On top of that Obamagate is putting them on defense as the country is now getting to see the full depth of the coup attempt.
All they and their allies in the media have left is a desperation Hail Mary play to try and destroy the economy. Although we flattened the curve, they still want to keep us in lockdown because its their only chance to beat Trump.
We are in uncharted waters now and we don’t really know what the economic breaking point is. Democrats and their allies in the media are banking that it will happen so they can blame Trump. They are willing to sabotage the economy to defeat him.
I worry that a wicked combo of high unemployment and a wave of bankruptcies might produce the type of visceral response you mentioned along with high levels of financial anxiety. And as we know, fear is the most powerful of all human emotions.
The pace of the economic recovery will be a big factor in the election. For that reason, Trump needs to make maximum use of the Bully Pulpit and push hard to Reopen America. There’s not a minute to waste.
We just took 2 seats in house special elections by LANDSLIDES!! Both were Dem seats one in WI. one in CA.
As I said, such things probably don't matter in an election.
Makes very good, not so common sense. I feel the same way.
I still remember your haunting words in February.
Something like: “I talked to my friend at CDC when SARS broke and asked him if this is it. He said ‘nope’. I asked him the same when Ebola hit. He said ‘nope’. I asked him the same when Coronavirus hit. He said ‘yep, this it’.”
A lot of us stepped up our prepping from that one post, so a big THANK YOU, Laz.
That, sir, is exactly why I posted it.
Thank you, sir.
Rattlesnake Canyon?
Respectfully, that doesn't matter.
Have you ever heard of the term, the Yellow Dog Democrat?
That term means a person who would vote for a yellow dog over a Republican.
Case in point: I have a dear friend who has, unfortunately, acquired such a severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome that he posted this, under my Facebook repost of this very article:
Yeah, he is killing off all the underprivileged and non-white folk. Methodically. Any left won't have a USP to mail in their votes.
Wait, what?
His post was so wild and bizarre, that it informs me of several things:
Oh, sure, bump the thread, but you couldn’t sign up for my ping list?
;^)
As I said, such things probably don’t matter in an election.
***************
I don’t think you can completely discount them. Case in point is Trump who won because he did have ideas to move the country forward, most of which were related to the economy by the way:
Build the wall
Control immigration
Jobs, job, jobs
Bring manufacturing home
Fair trade
Strengthen military
Infrastructure
Drain the Swamp
Thanks, I wasn’t aware of that. Remarkable accomplishment.
Maybe these victories will inspire the GOP to actually do something for their constituents and start backing Trump.
Truman circa 1947
33rd President of the United States
In office
April 12, 1945 – January 20, 1953
I believe you are mistaken about Truman. He served almost eight years as president after the death of FDR. he was not eligible for reelection in 1952.
“And as bad as Biden is, I don’t see anyone on the bench who’s any better.”
You’re right, ain’t it amazing. Just reporting the truth now is like brilliant satire.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.