HERE'S THE PROBLEM: The LINEAR growth rate of about 30K new cases per day means that--absent improved treatments--every other daily statistic will also remain constant: deaths, hospitalizations, "Recoveries" etc.
CHINAVIRUS DEATHS in the U.S. are averaging 2,362 per day for the past 2 weeks.
If this death rate were to continue, it would be over 800,000 deaths in the course of a year--FAR EXCEEDING any other infectious disease and putting it in the same order of magnitude (but not per capita, since population higher) of the 2017-2018 Spanish Flu.
The President somehow got misled into predicting much lower deaths, perhaps as few as 50K. But that target was EXCEEDED TODAY.
THERE SIMPLY MUST BE A DOWNSIDE BREAK IN THE LINEAR PATTERN.
I look for this and pray for it every day.
United States CHINAVIRUS Confirmed Cases
Date New Total Linear Model
Cases Cases Since
Actual Actual 4/2/2020
3/14/2020 2,717
3/15/2020 761 3,478
3/16/2020 1,167 4,645
3/17/2020 1,717 6,362
3/18/2020 1,407 7,769
3/19/2020 5,911 13,680
3/20/2020 5,605 19,285
3/21/2020 7,462 26,747
3/22/2020 8,478 35,225
3/23/2020 11,107 46,332
3/24/2020 8,816 55,148
3/25/2020 13,870 69,018
3/26/2020 16,635 85,653
3/27/2020 19,363 105,016
3/28/2020 19,448 124,464
3/29/2020 17,892 142,356
3/30/2020 22,003 164,359
3/31/2020 25,151 189,510
4/1/2020 27,005 216,515
4/2/2020 28,698 245,213 245,213
4/3/2020 32,740 277,953 277,216
4/4/2020 34,123 312,076 309,219
4/5/2020 25,544 337,620 341,222
4/6/2020 30,576 368,196 373,225
4/7/2020 31,916 400,112 405,228
4/8/2020 32,020 432,132 437,231
4/9/2020 33,618 465,750 469,234
4/10/2020 35,551 501,301 501,237
4/11/2020 31,942 533,243 533,240
4/12/2020 27,289 560,532 565,243
4/13/2020 26,623 587,155 597,246
4/14/2020 26,937 614,092 629,249
4/15/2020 30,468 644,560 661,252
4/16/2020 35,221 679,781 693,255
4/17/2020 30,550 710,331 725,258
4/18/2020 29,521 739,852 757,261
4/19/2020 24,413 764,265 789,264
4/20/2020 28,648 792,913 821,267
4/21/2020 32,128 825,041 853,270
4/22/2020 24,051 849,092 885,273
4/23/2020 37,617 886,709 917,276
4/24/2020 . 949,279
4/25/2020 . 981,282
4/26/2020 . 1,013,285
4/27/2020 . 1,045,288
4/28/2020 . 1,077,291
4/29/2020 . 1,109,294
4/30/2020 . 1,141,297
5/1/2020 . 1,173,300
discouraging. thanks, dis
Something smells fishy.
Look at the padding of numbers, by the officials who get money for WuhanVirus aid.
The more cases & deaths, the more money.
That could account for the spike in numbers.
Could “new cases” include people with no/few symptoms being tested? Or does it always mean tested because of fairly bad sickness and thus in hospital or being treated by a doctor?
Thanks for your analysis. You give basic information that I can’t seem to find anywhere else. Wonder where all these new inoculations are happening — all in New York City?
Dis, Question about the chicom virus numbers. Is it possible that there is a large enough increase in testing to account for the latest rise? I’m ignorrant as to whether there is anyone keeping track of the number of tests being administered.
My apologies if this has been asked and answered, I am behind and just trying to catch up. Disregard the question if already addressed, I will see replies as I catch up.