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Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say
STAT News ^ | April 17 2020 | Sharon Begley

Posted on 04/17/2020 10:59:28 PM PDT by gogeo

A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

(Excerpt) Read more at statnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: cookingcovidrates; coronavirus; covidcaptivity; covidphobia; hysteriavirus; medicalmodels
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To: gogeo

Whether the process is called a model or not, public policy decisions and lawmaking inevitably involves an attempt at predicting.

This will always be flawed, but usually, the people involved in this sort of business planning have a reasonable handle on the assumptions and variables.

That was not the case with COVID-19. Just a couple days ago Fauci admitted that the crystal ball gazaer doctors don;t know what fraction of the population is infected. The assumption has been that the fraction obtained from testing only symptomatic people was the correct fraction. IOW, the assumption has been 100% of people infected become symptomatic.

Dumb assumption - it should have been exposed and explained as being “super overcautious,” and that the numbers would of course come down, we just don;t know if they come down 10% or 10,000%. That would have been honest.


21 posted on 04/18/2020 6:46:03 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Cboldt
...public policy decisions and lawmaking inevitably involves an attempt at predicting.

...And that's why we are where we are...put this medical crisis aside, think of the next one. The credibility of 'big government science' has been seriously damaged. They won't be believed.

The difference between business and government is that in business, bad product leads to someone getting fired.

In government, it's the citizens who bear the consequences.

So no one (important) asked..."Is it good enough?" I know it's against their nature for experts to say, "I/we don't know." That's why elected officials make the decisions...and those who say, "We have to follow the experts!" are delusional.

22 posted on 04/18/2020 6:56:19 AM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: MAGAthon

Oh, piff. Everyone knows who they are.


23 posted on 04/18/2020 6:57:32 AM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: gogeo; gas_dr

Sir, your thoughts?


24 posted on 04/18/2020 7:55:43 AM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: gogeo

Good morning
My opinion is that models are like hurricane season in the south. Look at the spaghetti projections of any storms. I know where it’s going to be in 2 hours with a great deal of accuracy. I have no idea where it will be in five days with any accuracy. But each line gives you a reaction that can be planned

Where the error in my judgment with this whole fiasco lay is that as data became available no one said the models are horse crap. For example the 2.2M death projection on the size when we barely have thst many cases in the world and there was excellent data from well documented source countries that were transparent that suggested the length of cycle of this disease.

Far too many people fell in love with their models and failed to adjust once the data came in probably because they got attention with the heavy predictions.

Models attempt to tell the future. Data tells the past. It’s the synthesis of applying the data to readjust the models that make someone truly gifted at helping set policy. Sadly as this became politicized all the science went out the windrow for the ability to put a hand on the reigns of power. I’m doing so we have lost far more than we should have.


25 posted on 04/18/2020 8:34:00 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: gas_dr

Re: 25

Really good post. Thanks.

“Far too many people fell in love with their models and failed to adjust once the data came in probably because they got attention with the heavy predictions.”

Researchers need to be dispassionate in their forecasting. I find that to be a skill in and of itself.

In fact, for some things, people should not even be forecasting.

For my ornithology research, when I report out the year’s results to local groups, there’s always a few that want me to extrapolate on what the next 5-10 years hold, or attribute the last year or five year’s results to something such as climate change, etc.

I politely will not answer what the future holds for the focal species I study. There’s too many variables to consider and all that data has to be normalized to make it meaningful. I can offer some viewpoints on the past such as successful fledgings and note observations in vegetation, early spring, late spring, rainy spring, sustained rainy periods, etc, as my field notes are detailed enough to offer what I think may have happened. But forecasting what the future holds? Who the hell knows!

Now ask me about unemployment in 6-8 months, and yeah I will provide an estimate! (haha).


26 posted on 04/18/2020 9:09:48 AM PDT by Fury
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To: Fury

Thank you for your kind words. It is hard to put the passion aside and the emotion and just deal with math and data. But you are correct when viewed in a purely scientific way as you are acquainted you can quickly find out who the crazies are on both sides of the spectrum

What has really impressed me in this whole fiasco is two fold

1. People have no idea how to handle data
2. People have no yearning of freedom

I was listening to right wing radio and even hannity the other day. Mandate social distancing. Allow restaurants to reopen with certain regulations. What the hell is up with that? Freedom will give to a much better read of thjngs than the government with its guesses.

If I have a bar or restaurant. And I open it and don’t make any changes I will find out immediately if people care or don’t care. If people don’t care it will be full and then we understand that the free market says we are ready to get back to normal

If no one shows up then I know through the free market that I am going tk have to make some different accommodations. But the free market is a quick and efficient barometer for all these things.

But the kooks can’t wait to tell us what to do and force it. And it really pisses me off.


27 posted on 04/18/2020 9:18:09 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: gas_dr
But the kooks can’t wait to tell us what to do and force it. And it really pisses me off.

Haha. Quick story on turning the system back on itself. There's a part of my lawn (multiple acres) that I don't mow. Will get Meadowlarks that look at that area for nesting, along with the chipping sparrows, etc.

The front lawn I always mow - until I flushed a Meadowlark from the ground.

Next day flushed her again. Okay I think, there's nest.

Well, I don't need to mow that front section of the lawn, so I didn't.

And then the letters started. Mind you this is a rural area - very rural.

They said I have to mow the front lawn and keep it below 12". I wrote back and said I would do so as soon as the nestlings fledge.

No go. Another letter said the Town would cite me and mow the property with town equipment and bill me.

I sent them the relevant portions of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act about illegal taking of birds, eggs, etc. and said pretty simply that in this case Federal Law is superior to Town Law. Got a phone call a couple of days later from the Coe Enforcement person saying that I was twisting the meaning of the MBTA.

I cut the person off as nicely as I could and said, if you force me to mow the lawn or have the Town mow it, I will be on the phone to Fish and Wildlife Service and report an illegal taking, and report that you KNEW there was an active nest there (I sent them pictures). I said I will mow it once the nest is empty.

The person slammed the phone down.

And three weeks later I mowed that lawn.

I still laugh about that - I don't think they liked a dose of their own medicine, so to speak.

28 posted on 04/18/2020 9:47:32 AM PDT by Fury
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