Stock pundits have been calling the current market situation a “bear market”, because it fits the technical definition: 20% decline after a run-up. Given this classification, they say that what must happen is a double bottom. Though the numbers may go up, as they did last week, they must go down again — according to the pundits. Most suggest stocks need to “test” the previous lows, which would mean a decline of 12.7% or more.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tried today to have a decline, starting with the futures last night and continuing through the day. The best (or worst) the bears could manage, however, was a 2.5% decline (at 11:10 am), and the DJIA ended the day just 1.4% down. This is partly because energy stocks were strong (after Trump arranged an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia — no mean feat), but it was mainly because not enough people wanted to sell.
In aftermarket trading the DJIA has edged up 0.6%, cutting the extended day’s losses to 0.8%. I think the market has fully digested both coronavirus and the needed correction after the first Trump bull market. In my opinion, it’s all up from here. The market thinks that coronavirus is much worse than it really is. Once they discover their error, the market will jump. Companies have had a once-in-a-decade excuse to unload sub-standard employees, so they will be running much more efficiently once operations start up again. People and companies are itching to get back to work and Trump — through tax cuts and major infrastructure spending — is going to make it very easy for them.
Of course, YMMV.
I’m of the same opinion that it’s up from here - I’m sure with a few minor oscillations. It’s nearly 2AM at this point in the morning as I read your post and the futures are looking green across the board except for some interest rates (expected due to the current 0 rate which will likely go fo a while) and some ag commodities (which are only weakly red). In fact everything is green or barely red. I expect a solid opening on the plus side in the morning.
::People and companies are itching to get back to work and Trump — through tax cuts and major infrastructure spending — is going to make it very easy for them.::
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And, yesterday, at the daily briefing, Mnuchin said that small businesses will be helped both by the SBA loans and by changes in regulations.
Thank you for your analysis and explanation. I am real dope in these matters.