St Louis Fed Estimating 47 Million People Laid Off By End Of Second Quarter

St Louis Fed ^ | 03/24/20 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro,

[Enlightened1]

Calculating Second-Quarter Unemployment Rate

These two numbers were obtained by applying different methodologies and classifications to two different datasets. This means that while there may be significant overlap, each measure will also be capturing some aspects that the other ignores.

For this reason, we simply took the average of those two numbers as a point estimate for the total number of workers who will be laid off during the second quarter. This resulted in 47.05 million people being laid off during this period.

Summing to the initial number of unemployed in February, this resulted in a total number of unemployed persons of 52.81 million. Given the assumption of a constant labor force, this resulted in an unemployment rate of 32.1%.

1. Civilian labor force in February 2020 = 164.5 million (BLS via FRED)
2. Unemployment rate in February 2020 = 3.5% (BLS via FRED)
3. Unemployed persons in February 2020 = 5.76 million (#1 * #2)
4. Workers in occupations with high risk of layoff = 66.8 million (Gascon blog post)
5. Workers in high contact-intensive occupations = 27.3 million (Famiglietti/Leibovici/Santacreu blog post)
6. Estimated layoffs in second quarter 2020 = 47.05 million (Average of #4 and #5)
7. Unemployed persons in second quarter 2020 = 52.81 million (#3 + #6)
8. Unemployment rate in second quarter 2020 = 32.1% (#7 / #1)

 

 

[Mase]

But Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx will continue being employed, and paid well, while accruing bennies most in the private sector can only dream about. They will be joined by a large percentage of public sector employees who see the coming economic Armageddon as an opportunity to defeat Trump and install a new kind of economic system that delivers equality. And many FReepers will be here cheering them on.

[PLMerite]

I read the headline and was in the third paragraph before I realized it wasn’t talking about the City of St. Louis handing out meals.

[cp124]

Unfortunately many of us small businesses will not survive. I think that will make the left happy. Small business is part of the freedom they dispise. It’s easier to quid pro quo big corporations.

[caww]

If a small business had a contingency plan they'll likely be ok and recover. If not their option is what the government is attempting to subsidize, if that's not helpful they were likely operating on a shoestring to begin with...... Risk of the unknown or unseen is always present when one opens a business regardless of it's size. Unfortunately just as in life for those who live pay check to pay check they're going to feel the pinch first and hardest...so too with small businesses who operate as such.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

We need a new law. When unemployment rises a certain amount, a defined % of government workers get gone, too. Without pay.

[Ronniesque]

Good post.