Corona Virus Daily Thread #43

[LilFarmer]

Previous thread here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3833419/posts

[metmom]

Hubby’s work assumes that since he’s not ‘wasting time’ with the commute, he can just start work when he’d normally *leaves* for work and work until he normally gets home.

That's mighty presumptuous of them.

[Fury]

“Trust laid low by COVID-19, but crisis could give ‘civil’ society new life”

- see https://panow.com/2020/04/12/trust-laid-low-by-covid-19-but-crisis-could-give-civil-society-new-life/

[LilFarmer]

Nursing Homes Deaths Linked To Coronavirus Soar Past 2,600 In Alarming Surge
04/12/2020 01:11 pm ET

The true toll among the 1 million mostly frail and elderly people who live in such facilities is likely much higher, experts say.

Bernard Condon and Randy Herschaft
NEW YORK (AP) — More than 2,600 deaths nationwide have been linked to coronavirus outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, an alarming rise in just the past two weeks, according to the latest count by The Associated Press.

Because the federal government has not been releasing a count of its own, the AP has kept its own running tally based on media reports and state health departments. The latest count of at least 2,646 deaths is up from about 450 deaths just 10 days ago.

But the true toll among the 1 million mostly frail and elderly people who live in such facilities is likely much higher, experts say, because most state counts don’t include those who died without ever being tested for COVID-19.

Alarming outbreaks in just the past few weeks have included one at a nursing home in suburban Richmond that has killed 39 and infected 84, another at nursing home in central Indiana that has killed 24 and infected 16, and one at a veteran’s home in Holyoke, Mass., that has killed 37, infected 76 and prompted a federal investigation. This comes weeks after an outbreak at a nursing home in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland that has so far claimed 43 lives.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/843187-more-than-2500-nursing-homes-battling-coronavirus-in-the-u-s?p=848413#post848413

[LilFarmer]

VERY INTERESTING

Email exchanges among government officials early in the outbreak

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[LilFarmer]

IRAN

Iran, April 12, 2020—More than 26,200 people have died of the novel coronavirus in 266 cities checkered across all of Iran’s 31 provinces, according to reports tallied by the Iranian opposition People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) as of Sunday afternoon local time, April 12. The official death count declared by the regime is 4,474, less than a fifth of the real figure.

The death in various provinces include: 4,050 in Tehran, 2,630 in Qom, 2,320 in Razaiv Khorasan, 1,070 in Khuzestan, 990 in Alborz, 920 in Golestan, 730 in West Azerbaijan, 675 in Hamedan, 530 in Ardabil, 530 in Fars, 420 in Kurdistan, 420 in Zanjan, 395 in Yazd, 140 in Bushehr, and 65 in South Khorasan. The latest reports indicate a major spike in the number of people killed in the city of Shiraz, south-central Iran, and the pace of people dying in Tehran Province has increased. This is in addition to cases registered in other provinces.....

....These remarks are questioned even among the regime’s own officials. Alireza Zali, head of the Tehran Coronavirus Control Task Force questioned the recent decision to send people back to work. “We won’t see the impact today… Our COVID-19 cases will be seen in the next two weeks… Our medical staff members are exhausted and suffering from various issues. Some have died. Some can no longer work. Despite all that they will have to be prepared for a new jump in this illness. Furthermore, we have not reached the peak in Tehran,” he said on Saturday night in an interview with the regime’s state TV Channel 5.

One epidemiology and infectious disease expert in Iran wrote, “During the next few days the number of deaths will reach unbelievable new heights… Considering the information we have obtained I am telling you that the number of new COVID-19 cases across the country has not decreased. What is worth noting is that only six percent or a maximum of ten percent of our patients have been identified. Other cases have quarantined themselves in their homes and prefer to visit medical centers on lesser occasions. The country has yet to witness its peak in this illness.”

https://english.mojahedin.org/i/iran-coronavirus-news-26200-deaths-20200412

[LilFarmer]

ITALY
Coronavirus in Italy, 156,363 positive cases and 19,899 deaths

In Italy, since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic, at least 156,363 people have contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus (4092 more than yesterday for a 2.7% growth). Of these, 19899 (+431, + 2.2%) died and 34211 (+1677, + 5.2%) were discharged. Currently the positive subjects of which there is certainty are 102,253 (the count rises to 156,363 - as mentioned above - if in the calculation there are also the dead and the cured, ie counting all the people who have been found positive to the virus since the beginning of the epidemic). The data were provided by the Civil Protection.

https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_aprile_12/coronavirus-italia-156363-casi-positivi-19899-morti-bollettino-12-aprile-9cf2b856-7cd0-11ea-9e96-ac81f1df708a.shtml

[LilFarmer]

UK
84,279 cases; 10,612 deaths
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[LilFarmer]

NETHERLANDS
Current numbers novel coronavirus
Positive tested persons 25,587* (+1,174)
Admitted to hospital 8,582 (+196)
Reported deaths 2,737** (+94)
https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/grafieken

BELGIUM
MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 12th April, 2020) A further 268 people have died in the past 24 hours after contracting COVID-19 in Belgium, raising the overall death toll in the country to 3,600, the national coronavirus response center said Sunday.

Health authorities in the European country also reported an additional 1,629 new cases of the disease in the preceding 24 hours, taking the total number of positive tests in the country to 24,647.

At present, 5,353 people are currently receiving treatment in the country’s hospitals. A total of 6,463 people have been discharge
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/belgiums-covid-19-death-toll-rises-by-268-ov-890835.html

SWEDEN
As of April 12th, 899 people have died with the coronavirus in Sweden.
Since the start of the outbreak, 839 people have been in intensive care, which also includes fatalities and patients who have recovered and been discharged.

There have been 10,483 confirmed cases of the coronavirus as of April 12th.

Everyone in Sweden is urged to stay at home if they are at all sick (even a mild cough or sore throat), practice social distancing, avoid non-essential travel within the country, work from home if possible, follow good hygiene practices, and avoid non-essential visits to elderly people or hospitals.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden

[justa-hairyape]

Well I am just outside that age range, but I will go back to work when I can wear N95 masks, goggles and gloves and when almost everyone I encounter is doing the same. That is similar to what China is trying right now. Odds of infection are much less then. But for the time being, high risk activities for sport should be curtailed, unless you want to stay down the hall from the covid ward.

[Black Agnes]

He’s got a job. We’re very thankful for that.

Under normal circumstances he might say something.

We don’t dare now. There are already rumblings of outsourcing his department.

[PA Engineer]

I think it is too early to tell because of the paucity of data.

Gait ataxia caught our attention, however hypoxia is one of the underlying causes. We'll have to wait for more studies.

The neuropathology of the adult cerebellum

The human brain is vulnerable to even brief interruptions of oxygen supply, and cerebral hypoxia occurs on a background of arrested circulation (ischemic or stagnant hypoxia), insufficient oxygen saturation of hemoglobin in circulating red blood cells (pure anoxia), or toxicity that interferes with oxygen transport or delivery.

Insufficient oxygen saturation is a common symptom of this virus (including glycated hemoglobin). I believe we are going to see ongoing issues with the brain, lung and kidneys in recovering patients .

An interesting paper involving high HbA1c and pulse oximetry oxygen saturation:

Elevated blood HbA1c levels lead to an overestimation of SaO2 by SpO2, suggesting that arterial blood gas analysis may be needed for type 2 diabetic patients with poor glycemic control during the treatment of hypoxemia.

Increased blood glycohemoglobin A1c levels lead to overestimation of arterial oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry in patients with type 2 diabetes

Finally, (once again) patients need to get their HbA1c under control. I don't like the 6.5 level as normal. That is based on a sick population average. Below 6 in the 5.5 range should be the target.

Best.

[Black Agnes]

Just read the flubro threads where they brag about not wearing ppe. and ‘we’ are being fascists for asking them to.

[justa-hairyape]

I avoid those like the Plague. If I see a fork in the road and one way is called the highway to hell, I dont go that route. Some apparently prefer that route. Whatever.

[amorphous]

So by May 20 you’re looking at 125,000 people a day dying from this?

After recalculating with yesterday's 8.89 ratio. The May 20# lowered to 111k from the previous 125k#. That's 39 days out, and very hard to predict accurately. On the 6th, I had estimated 27k for the 15th - currently the projection is 28k. Just like the DJIA, there are so many factors involved, it's impossible to predict even close to 100% accuracy.

With the above in mind, below is the latest projection using my "experimental metric". I'm now calling it, "Daily Fatality Index (DFI)" - I replaced ratio with index in the nomenclature, after some confusion over the use of Daily Fatality Index (DFR):

It's a work in progress. Suggestions/comments appreciated.

Yesterday was the fourth day of a downtrend.
Estimated deaths today: 1,796, down 61 from yesterday.

After looking at today's numbers on worldometers.info, we're already we're at +1,090. Today may see an uptick from yesterday.

[amorphous]

Agree. :( I’ve seen a lot of people activity today.

[metmom]

Yes, there are times to not rock the boat.

Where would they outsource it to?

[chris37]

The other day I went to Walmart. Some observations. About half the people there had some sort of mask on. Among those, another half of them had their mask pulled down off their face and resting on their neck. Very few people had gloves, at least that I saw.

I didn’t wear my bandanna. It gave me some problems last time, difficult to breath glasses fell off a few times etc, so I went without.

The thing that struck me the most was just how courteous everyone was to everyone else. You could see it all over, even in the places where trying to keep any distance just wasn’t possible. It somehow made it pleasant to shop in the store, to participate in the courtesy was uplifting.

I guess it’s just good to see people behaving like this despite difficult circumstances for all.

[amorphous]

I’m a visual person. That just means I like graphs and charts over tabular or table data, but I still find that way of expressing data certainly useful, and like yourself, many people prefer their data that way.

[Jane Long]

VERY interesting link/post, lil farmer.

Thanks.

[Black Agnes]

There are several silly valley companies that provide that ability.

So we are happy with lower pay, more work, etc. At least we’re employed.