Posted on 04/09/2020 11:41:15 AM PDT by dangus
So is the purpose of the nationwide lockdown to "flatten the curve" or to reduce the total, cumulative number of infections? Because the very important distinction between the two goals is about to become critical.
See, "flattening the curve" meant delaying -- not preventing -- infections. The idea was that our medical system was going to become absolutely overwhelmed by infections, resulting in an elevated death rate. The notion was explicitly that people were going to get infected no matter what we did, but we could delay many of those infections until our medical system could handle them.
It's important because the curve has flattened in New York. They are still finding as many people as ever with the virus, but those that are found are much healthier. The number of hospitalizations and of placements into ICU units and of attachments to ventilators has crashed. So, there are now fewer resources being used. We've passed peak resource use, and we still have a nearly empty naval hospital and empty Jacob Javitz center.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york
What do you think we should do?
A. Pay any cost, no matter how futile to contain the virus. Keep the restrictions in place until the virus is gone.
B. Loosen restrictions as soon as the curve flattens, including immediately in New York.
C. There was never a need for such tight restrictions.
D. A plateau is still too high! Loosen the restrictions fairly soon, but wait until the resource use is at a more sustainable level across the entire country.
E. Very slowly, and in very limited places, experiment with loosening restrictions to see if doing so creates a new increase.
Most geographical locales have grossly over achieved.
Those places need to take a step back every 5 days.
1) Replace any politician that “ordered” anything that violated Constitutional rights.
2) Identify every unconstitutional government agency like the NEA, shut it down and fire everyone.
3) Rollback the spit in your face raise the Congress gave itself. Terminate their benefits and pensions.
4) Tell the Chinese “so sorry” and they can forget any debt they owe us.
5) Eject every illegal alien in the US.
6) Pass a law that only allows someone legally registered to vote for someone running for Congress to donate to that candidate.
I could go on but none of this stuff will happen.
I think the global shutdown and widespread isolation is overdone,
county by county rules, based on #cases/100,000 would be better
low incidence (low mobility/rural) should be handled very differently
than high incidence (high mobility/city)
just as WVa has low case load burden,
and New York has high case load burden.
The one size fits all approach unnecessarily impacts low risk populations,
and are insufficient for severely effected areas
Damn, it’s raining and my roof has a small leak. How much Gasoline should I use to Burn the House down before too much damage is done??
Good to start the conversation. I don’t know how, but we need to get back to work, and soon.
Some things that I think will be important:
1) Roll out large-scale “surveillance” testing, with results publicly available so that hot spots can be addressed with targeted measures.
2) The wearing of masks should become routine if you a) have a fever or b) feel ill. There are two reasons for this: If you do cough or sneeze in public, the droplet spray will be much more contained to your person, rather than spreading widely.
3) Enhanced personal hygene — hand washing etc. should be the new normal.
there’s got to be a lot more, just spitballing here...
I think posting vanity threads will help a lot.
Who better than internet strangers to advise you during
this most trying time? Plus, vanities on FR draw all the finest people.
Just Watch.
What kind of question is that? Nail one foot to the floor and run in circles?
Well, yours is the least interesting so far, so what does that say?
Or, you know... finish reading the post?
(Come on, don’t make humblegunner’s point!)
What difference does it make what ANYONE here thinks we should do? We’re not experts and no one’s going to listen to us anyway.
Mostly that you are unaware of the GREAT AWAKENING and you
can't see the forest for the trees. Wake up you sheep! Adrenochromes!
Ironic statement coming from you.
LOL!
You say “peak resource use.” That’s kind of a so-what question, begging your pardon. Everyone will reach “peak resource use” during this epidemic. In some places, that peak use will be Zero; some other places, peak resource use might be 50 or 90% of available resources.
I think what you must mean is “peak capacity.” What states are reaching peak capacity?
This hospital’s peak resource use was apparently zero.
No, peak capacity is how many patients a system can handle. Peak resource use is how much of that capacity is being used. Yes, eventually, peak resource use MUST be reached; the question is when, and whether, once we reach it, we should start loosening restrictions or wait until some further point when resource use is far below peak again.
Since you did, I think President Trump should stay the course as he has been implying. Identify pockets of infection and bring all resources to bear, then suggest some states and locales relax the excessive control in those places where it is not needed. That has always been up to the individual states anyway.
I would have assumed that did not even need to be discussed.
You may have replied to the wrong person :<)
so I did. Thanks.
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