Posted on 04/03/2020 7:26:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The numbers will always vary on how President Trump looks. Numbers always need to make Trump bad.
it doesnt matter what the number are or what the idiotic computer models wrongly forecast
the meme has always been trumps fault, hes a moron, bla bla bla
Exellent!!!
Even duct tape can’t fix stupid.
But it can silence it!!!
Silence is golden.
Duct tape is silver.
The rate of deaths/cases was 1.6% a week ago and is up to 2.7% today.
The “experts” said as more people were tested, the death rate would go down. Didn’t happen.
I don’t trust them, but I think it will be worse than the predictions.
It will be about 60k. Government action will bring on depression to last a decade or so.
Never mind the businesses going under; the problem here in the NYC metro area is that the stimulus checks won’t cover a fraction of the true costs of living here.
On top of that, it seems prices are rising; the buying panic/long lines are mostly gone, but everything seems to cost more.
In the postmortem on this I’m sure they’ll realize that just as we can see now, the “sanctuary states” will suffer the most - though they might not understand why (or care to admit it).
These “replacement American” populations (legal or illegal) tend to be younger - they are replacing an ageing “American” population - and therefore will see a lower overall death rate from this virus. At the same time, they simply have different views of hygiene, and in my (limited) experience aren’t taking the precautions seriously (bunching together unprotected, for example) - so they will carry/transmit it, without actually dying from it (or even requiring hospitalization). While the news stories seem to mention a lot of older and/or sick Americans dying from this, I don’t believe Americans in general are causing the spread so much. The Americans I know are taking precautions; even the young friends of my children who originally ignored common-sense precautions are now scared as some locals are being hospitalized, and everyone knows someone - even just acquaintances through work - who has died from it.
oh brother!! I will say prayers!!
Here in NJ the testing isn’t available unless you have symptoms; the testing centers aren’t open to the general public - so you’re already dealing with sick people. As a result, the denominator won’t outpace the numerator yet in terms of spread/contamination; if 1,000 people show up for testing, you’re probably adding 950 to the numerator (infected) and 1,000 to the denominator (tested). If they were testing EVERYONE, then you may add 2,000 to the numerator (infected) and 100,000 to the denominator (tested) in a day - a more favorable/less scary result.
The “death rate” can’t go down yet because of the incubation period; given the scarcity of crowds, it inevitably should.
That duck tape’s just too cool.
The fallacy is that it will be “over” after April...it will decrease, but will not just disappear. And, like a flu, will probably pop back up again in fall/winter and/or when we go back to our usual routines. By that time we’ll just deal with it like a flu.
I still know of no one that has it. Friends, friends of friends, family (with exception of one who thinks she had it but has not tested and is already well), work colleagues, etc., no one...not that I’m complaining, but nada.
Where are you (which state)? I know two people personally (not friends, but acquaintances) that have died, and my wife knows a couple. THAT is what got people to start listening to the Big Brother warnings.
you’re right
While I don't necessarily believe my numbers and I think the deaths will be much lower. Here's how I get very close to your number:
NB. worst influenza in the past 10 years 45,000,000 cases
NB. if you consider SARS-CoV-2 twice as infective
]covid_cases =: 45000000*2
90000000
NB. That's 90 million cases by the end of this thing
NB. if you calculate the current hospitalization rate for new york
NB. based on Friday nights numbers in New York Magazine:
NYcases =: 102870
NYHospitalizations =: 14810
]NYHospRate =: NYHospitalizations%NYcases
0.1439681151
NB. so 14.4% of cases end up in the hospital
NB. Now if all the deaths are assummed to come from
NB. Hospitalized patients, then the death rate per
NB. hospitalization in New York is:
NYdeaths =: 2935
]NYdeathsperhospitalization =: NYdeaths%NYHospitalizations
0.1981769075
NB. So 19.8% of those hospitalized end up dead
NB. Now lets perform the same math on the estimated
NB. number of national cases
]USestimatedHospitalizations =: 0.144 * covid_cases
12960000
NB. that 12,960,000 US hospitalizations over the course
NB. of this epidemic
NB. Now the total USdeaths based on this method
]USestimatedDeaths =: 0.198 * 12960000
2566080
Thats 2,566,080 (2.5 million). But there is a flaw in the analysis. Current NY covid cases are not an estimate of the cases in the general population of NY state. So the hospitalization rate is off leading to that huge number.
Lets add in the fact that 80% of cases will never need hospitalization and take that number to be more indicative of the tested cases we have now. This makes sense since it is somewhat difficult to get tested if you don't meet criteria for hospitalization (though that too is changing daily).
NB. fixing the flaw if 80% likely never need a doctor
NB. are going to be fine than the pool of potential
NB. hospitalized cases is 20% of the covid_cases
covid_cases
90000000
]PotentialHospitalCasePool =: 0.20*covid_cases
18000000
NB. so 18,000,000 people who will test positive and
NB. may need to be hospitalized
NB. if I now apply the NYHospitalizationRate to that
NB. number of cases:
]FixedHospitalizations =: 0.144*PotentialHospitalCasePool
2592000
NB. 2,592,000 US hospitalizations under the fixed model
NB. for the entire course of this virus this year
NB. Now apply the death rate for hositalized patients
]FixedUSdeaths =: 0.198*2592000
513216
So if no treatment becomes available on a large scale to treat 2.5 million hospitalizations we will have roughly 500k deaths. This year by the way.
FYI, in NJ it’s been running about 50/50 between positive and negative tests.
And you’re right, we don’t have a clear picture because of the scarcity of tests and the lag in testing results.
It’s a shame so many are being sent home because the symptoms are not critical, and they have to monitor themselves. What a lousy position to be in. Many end up back in the hospital in a condition where they can’t be saved. Or they die at home.
Everybody in an area with few cases should thank their lucky stars.
I was under the impression that those sent home actually didn’t need to be in the hospital; they’d be taking space/care needed for critical patients, and were going to improve anyway. What was the hospital supposed to do besides provide a bed and three hot meals, if they weren’t in respiratory distress?
I’m not following this closely, as I’m actually working many more hours remotely than I ever did in the office (due to the complications of working remotely for a company with no real contingency plan).
Perfect!
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, as well as being the first WHO director without a medical degree
Under promise and over deliver.
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