Posted on 04/03/2020 7:49:26 AM PDT by rintintin
At a coronavirus briefing earlier this week, the White House task force presented their projections on the total number of deaths that they say are likely to occur in the U.S. because of the pandemic: between 100,000 to 240,000 will likely die, they project, even with the current mitigation measures. But, as reported by The Washington Post, some experts and Trump advisers “doubt” the projection, pushing back not as much on the numbers but how exactly the task force arrived at them.
“Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude that 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week,” the Post reported Thursday. “The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.” So far, the Post reports, the team has “not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability, and have not provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.”
And it’s not just outside experts pushing back; some of Trump’s own advisers “have expressed doubts about the estimate,” the Post reports, citing three unnamed White House officials. “There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.”
During a recent task force meeting, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the team’s leading voices, called into question modeling projections in general, according to the Post’s sources.
“I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models,” Dr. Fauci told other task force members this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the exchange.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailywire.com ...
What a maroon! He is all over the place and he is outright wrong here.
Ummm, why the heck is he talking about models in earlier briefings, then?
Rely on models. Don’t rely on models.
A Computer ‘Model’ is essentially a spreadsheet that you plug different values into different formulae and see what happens.
Anybody that has competency in using Microsoft Excel can make a ‘computer model’......................
Yea, kinda like “climate change” models?
The Fauci Dance continues.
Translation: He hopes it is several million deaths which might give him time and cover enough to latch onto a model and lucky break that reveals him as the hero after all.
And then Birx steps to the podium to transmit her extreme faith in models.
Good cop, bad cop?
Then let’s quit making decisions based on models
This guy realizes that millions are out of work and people are terrified for their lives b/c he convinced Trump the models were accurate, right?
This guy is the best we have? Our experts are trash, I swear.
I get the feeling that we are “below the curve.”
A good thing, but not something to admit so soon after telling folks stay-in-place until April 30.
Trump better open up the economy by April 15...start with risk assessment...
They have people scared to death...
FedX 380,000 workers...
400 sick. did not say if any were in the hospital
He’s not really wrong about that.
How are models supposed to account for the herd of cats that is Americans?
How are models supposed to account for the guy walking up the drink isle opening every bottle and drinking from it?
We know we have 6099 deaths in the USA. We know what the curve looks like in the past.
There may well be a lot of variables that make it hard to predict the future. The biggest is whether patients will get treated with an effective treatment.
But we know if there is no change from prior behavior, it’s going to get much much worse.
BS, MD, CYA.
Certainly make a bad one!
Wait, wait, wait. I know my reading comprehension skills have never been what they used to be but doesn't the first sentence identify where The White House gets its numbers?
“Rely on models. Don’t rely on models.”
Models are almost always based on some assumptions. The assume will get you every time.
Exactly so. Fauci is correct.
You cannot rely on the models.
Garbage in, Garbage out.
Much like the climate change nonsense.
The big difference is climate change models attempt to project over decades, while these models only project over months.
I think that is plenty of time to finish decontamination and have most sick treated with HCQ/Z-pack/Zinc. We can start to reopen a large part of the country.
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