Posted on 04/01/2020 2:41:11 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
Please FReep Mail me regarding the ping list
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COVID-19 Update
As of 03/31/2020 22:37 PDT (taken at 23:59)
To the report...
This information addresses solely the United States
A Trend vs A Base Camp
Several days ago I was feeling pretty good about a decrease
in the volume of growth I had observed, and was presenting
to you. It looked like we were seeing a trend toward
stagnation in growth. Sadly, the numbers have begun to grow
rapidly again.
The flatening of the growth of each previous day, appeared
to be developing a plateau. Instead it now looks more like
COVID-19 was simply building a base camp.
Lets go to the numbers.
EOD Day's Size of
Date Cases Grwth Gain
03/22 33,206 8,459
03/23 46,442 11,236
03/24 54,893 8,789
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
For the last two days, the number of new cases grew by
Notice that one week ago on 03/24, we had 54,893 cases.
So COVID-19 has left the base camp and is headed for the
summit.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
Let's take a moment to address where the U. S. stands
in relation to rest of the nations in the world.
Several days ago I touched on the fact that the U. S.
populace is roughly 4.252% of the global populace.
Despite this, we have 22.045% of the declared cases.
If we address just the current active cases of which
99.57% are now outside Mainland China, we have 27.89%
of them. Not real thrilled about these numbers.
Today our daily resolved case number came in at 2,629.
That's the highest we've seen, by 832 cases, and it's
going to go up more in the coming days.
This helps us a little bit to keep our active cases down.
At the end of the day 03/31/2020, we have 178,318 active
cases in the United States.
Fatalities in the United States
Per
Date Fatal Day
03/26/20 1,301
03/27/20 1,704 403
03/28/20 2,229 525
03/29/20 2,484 255
03/30/20 3,170 686
03/31/20 3,889 719
To keep them in perspective, we have 189,524 active cases
While I'm not particularly bothered by the mortality rate,
it's the numbers of cases that is troubling. Even with a
low mortality rate, if you have enough cases, more people
than we want to, are going to secumb to the disease.
It is still good to remember what the general guidelines
are. In general terms, if you are younger and have no
other health problems, you don't have as much to worry
about. Try not to let this get to you. Your chances don't
improve in correlation to the amount of concern you have.
Eat right. Drink lots of fluids. Get adequate sleep.
Don't stress yourself right now. Follow the guidelines.
Just do what you know to be right.
If you're a Christian, remember the core values of your
faith.
I'd also like to mention that older aged people have been
termed high risk, but we don't know all the answers about
this disease. I've been hearing about people over ninety
and even 100 that were just honery enough to pull through.
Nothing says you can't. Don't die daily in your mind, by
giving in to fear.
This addresses the situation outside
Mainland China.
Growth is off the charts, so for right now it's time
to buckle up for the ride.
Let's Look at the Global Numbers
EOD Day's Size of
Date Cases Grwth Growth
03/20/20 194,148 30,824
03/21/20 225,932 31,784
03/22/20 257,820 31,888
03/23/20 297,172 39,352
03/24/20 341,530 41,462
03/25/20 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26/20 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27/20 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28/20 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29/20 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30/20 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31/20 880,000 78,000 5,000
There's no sugar coating it. These numbers are big
Nations With Lots of Cases
One morning after the beginning of March I was talking
about a number of nations that might go over the 1,000
mark. I actually lowered my estimation a bit before
writing about it. (as I recall, hopefully accurate)
I believe I addressed it as a dozen to fiften nations,
in my hypothetical. I remember thinking 15-20, but
reducing my number for my comments here.
Lets look at today's reality.
At the end of the day on 03/31/2020, there are 47
nations with 1,000 cases or more. There are also six
nations that are on the verge of hitting that mark.
There are 13 nations with counts above 10,000, and
again, there's a few poised to join them.
There are 5 nations with counts above 50,000 excluding
Mainland China.
A Look at Resolved Cases
The last few mornings I've been talking to you about the
percentage of resolved cases. If you'll remember, I had
mentioned that the percentage of resolved cases had grown
on Sunday for the first time in 23 days.
Well, on the 31st, that did not continue. We slipped by
a fraction of a percent, still remaining in the top half
of the 25% range. The 31st was the 13th report we had
remained in the area from 25.649% to 25.933%. That doesn't
seem so special, but in a way it is. I pull down 3 or 4
reports a day and document them. Generally a percent doesn't
make it through more than one day. In fact, in the last few
weeks I've noticed a day when a whole percent was skipped as
the percentages of resolved cases dropped. Generally
the 28%, 27%, and 26% came and went in a matter of about
three reports, and I'm address a full percent.
Last night's last report, was the thirteenth report where
we remained between that 25.649% and 25.933%. So the
resolved cases are struggling to overcome the rapid
growth of new cases, to start cutting down the number
of active cases. It will take a while, but this is real.
220,713 declared cases have been resolved now. Yesterday
alone, 16,805 cases were resolved. The day before there
were 17,848 cases resolved.
My Outside China section declares that 99.57% of all
active cases are now outside China. The take away on
that is that we have a large body of data from outside
China, and it really doesn't matter what is going on
inside China now, other than them cooking up something
we'll see in another ten years.
Population Saturation
Here are the figures revealing how many people in each
population base represent one case.
Globally : 12,151 Outside China : 12,203 The U. S. A. : 1,853Look at the population saturation in the U. S.
New Feature: States and Counties199
Here is a spreadsheet with the States and 199 Counties listed
alphabetically and by declining case numbers. access
Good morning...
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
...and WorldoMeters: Alternate Data Site
I have been downloading three to five reports per
day since 01/27. I have then worked up numbers that
should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global
numbers including China. You will find a separate
section addressing just the Outside China figures.
Then there is now also a section with just the
United States stats in there. There are also a lot
of special stats broken out for you to browse. The
history of 203 nations and their numbers from day one
of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
Sorry, the XLS version is not available for dibursement at this time.a
A bit overtaken by events, but still interesting.
Doctors go off label all the time. They’ve been doing it for
decades, perhaps a century or more. It’s very annoying to see
a person who claims to be an authority, not embrace that
reality.
A doctor has a theory. They use a medication that is
approved for another purpose since it has been proven not
to harm people who ingest it.
they meet with some success. They publish a paper and a lot
of physicians across the nation use the therapy.
Thank you Jim. Yes I had seen that. The same article
appeared here.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
It stands out because its workup addresses only 634 cases
on the ship. Several weeks later there were 712 cases.
I had wondered if I was looking at the same material.
I had hoped this one took all 712 into consideration.
Still, the 634 version does reveal some rather good
information.
It touches on how many folks were on the ship, staff and
passengers. It talks about mortality rates if I
remember accurately.
IMO < a close reading of this material would have helped
to put peoples minds at ease about this virus.
The folks I mentioned it to acted as if they didn’t want
to go near it.
Oh well.
Thanks again...
Correct. It’s the ratio of the cumulative cases divided by the total tests performed that establish a trend line. One running total divided by another.
There may be two separate trends in the totals. One is the growth of the virus in the general population which may have been decreasing the rate due to seclusion. The secondary one may be the growth of the virus in the non secluded “essential” who are exposed to the sickest which include hospital, first responders and other medical personnel
2 days ago · President Trump’s Covid-19 czar Dr. Anthony Fauci has issued a dire coronavirus prediction: “Millions of cases,” and “100,000 to 200,000” deaths in the US.
Which means that there would be 40,000 deaths in each State ( more in some, less in others of course)
Hard to digest.
Better check your math, 40,000 x 50 = 2,000,000
I think you meant 4,000
dagnabbit!!!! My typing was off, not my math!!!!
But thanks for catching it;)
I think you can add in people who are not sheltering in place
who are helping to spread the disease like the essential
people are.
I’m not trying to put the essential people down as a group,
but the symptoms don’t show up until after you’re
contagious.
dagnabbit!!!! My typing/eyesight was off, not my math!!!!
And thanks for catching it;)
Essential people are exactly that—essential.
Even if they do help to spread, they are necessary to keep society functioning.
BTW- essential includes mores than the front line people you see.
Pretty much all operations have to be supported by accounting and IT functions—and not all of that can be done remotely.
This particular problem is something that I am dealing with every day. And I know two people personally who have been hospitalized with COVID since Monday.
I know it looks bad at the moment, but I watched the numbers
in China. I know, I know, folks even though China didn’t
report out well, there were certain things that kind of
came together with what we did learn.
We know the basic overall timeline. So if we have the
right figures or not, we do know about what time things
started calming in China.
At one point about three weeks ago, I calculated that we
had a month to go before the tide would turn. I didn’t
like that, so I kind of let it rest.
We have another week or two before the calming starts
in earnest here. Look, that may not be true, but it’s
a premise I’m considering pretty sound.
We’ll see how it goes. I don’t think we’re going to
have 100,000 deaths, but who knows.
This is out of our hands for the most part. It’s time
to sit back and observe. In a shorter period of
time than we think, it will start to get better.
We need to quit watching the pot.
If we don’t, it will be a long time before it boils.
We all know or should know that identical stats can be used in many ways to make a desired point.
“If we address just the current active cases of which
99.57% are now outside Mainland China, we have 27.89%
of them. Not real thrilled about these numbers.”
How completely meaningless is this number? Ask yourself what percentage of the WORLD is testing to the extent we are, relative to their population?
How many known cases would there be if the rest of the world was testing to the extent we are? A Million? Five million? More? Knowing the # would mean the % of cases here would be a far, far lower number.
It simply is not realistic nor is it helpful to present data in this way.
I have a family member that is in accounting. They are doing all their work from home right now. Their main offices are closed.
Your comments about support staff make sense.
As for the essential people, I recognize that they have to be out there no matter what, because they are... ‘essential’.
It’s the cost of them doing a service that has to be done.
There’s no blame or negative assessment over it.
Well, there shouldn’t be.
But there’s some delay between identification and death. I’ve seen that symptoms show up in 2 to 7 days with an average of 5.2, but I’ve not seen how many days from bring called “a case” to death. I’ll use 4 days. So a better estimate of this death rate is death/(cases 4 days ago). As of 3/31 this would be 4053/104126 or 3.9%. If we use 3 days or 2 days the rate drops to 3.3% or 2.8% respectively. As curve flattens the math becomes more complicated as there’s a greater percentage of resolved cases. For now though, a rough practical death rate appears to be 3% to 4% of total cases.
Using the 3/31 total cases of 188,639 and a 3.5% death rate, means there would be 2,600 deaths yet to come if there were no more new cases. This is why THE TRUMP CURE of Hydro + zinc + zPack is critical to lower the death rate from the cases “in the pipeline” and the coming further increase of cases.
“they are now assessing things at a 0.60% mortality rate.”
They are factoring in the 50% of mild cases that never been reported. They got well on their own at home.
I agree. Not sure how they are quantifying that though.
Models? LOL
You’re probably about as biased as you can be on him.
Yes. Probally Computer Models! Head Shake. Garbage in garbage out numbers.
Best to you my FRiend. Thanks much for your effort.
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