Posted on 03/30/2020 9:45:57 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3829536/posts?page=1
or they don’t want her out because the money was already spent and granny don’t know it
LOL!!
Do they still careen over and down the sides of her eyes, to her cheekbones?
Yes....I had about 10+ doz eggs, a while back.
I scrambled them (in my large mixer) then froze in quart sized ziplock FREEZER bags. You have to try to get ALL air out.
I also froze half and half (by the pint, in a quart freezer bag) and, in ice cube trays, then vacuum sealed the frozen cubes.
I should have cream for my coffee...for some time.
I froze the eggs by dozen and half dozen, in the quart bags. Laid them flat (cookie sheet) and froze. Easy to stack, once frozen.
The kitchen is running and they are delivering hot meals. The “dining room” at their place is much like a full service restaurant, where a waiter takes your order and brings you your food and beverages. Now the menu is limited to just 2 or 3 choices that are not cooked to order, and is delivered to your apartment. My siblings and I have tried to improve on that by bringing them their favorite foods. The biggest loss is the social contact during meals and other activities. As of now it’s “until further notice”. Walking through the empty halls, seeing closed doors and no activity at all was pretty sad. I know many elderly, even those living at home are feeling a lot of loneliness.
I just remember when early reports/vids were coming out of Wuhan, they were saying that people had to get rid of their pets, as they were considered carriers.
Do you guys remember that? Like there were stacks of (deceased) pets being collected?
My little guy needs to go to the groomer....reallllly bad...but, I’m apprehensive to take him, now. I keep thinking he can wait it out, like the rest of us.
“We don’t have firm figures on the proportion of asymptomatic infected to symptomatic infected.”
Disagree. First, the DP provided an adequate “poll” of infected, margin of error +/- a small percent, and second (per the doctor I know involved in the containment/mitigation effort) these numbers seem to be reliable and consistent with full chain contact tracing.
We also have the widespread testing and mitigation in South Korea producing numbers consistent with the DP. Nearly 10,000 cases with very close to the same percentage of dead.
What we don’t know is where they are cutting off the testing in places like NYC and NO and LA, as in what degree of mild is too mild for a test. Sadly, the standards differ from state to state and perhaps even more granularly. So while we can reasonably assume the proportions of asymptomatic, etc., we can’t know how many of the confirmed are in which category (with large numbers of unconfirmed cases apparently left wandering around in the wilderness). We can hope that the US efforts will be as successful as South Korea and the DP, but sadly, I doubt that certain areas will do as well even if the majority of the nation does.
All in all I think we have other things to worry about than the precision of the numbers beyond perhaps 2 significant figures. When somebody goes back and writes an authoritative paper with well researched numbers people are going to trash it anyway given the chaos in the counting currently taking place. It will never be accurate, so why bother with unnecessary precision at this point?
Tack on everybody’s pet conspiracy theories about “already had it 7 times since last summer” and “antibodies that disappear two weeks after you recover” and “the Chinese have a secret vaccine they gave to their Deep State minions” and so on, and it becomes ridiculous to even bother past what we know right now about the distribution of case severities.
I’ll stick with my estimate that the total cases number no more than 5 times the confirmed cases plus 2 or 3 cohorts of incubating cases of the same size as the high end figure for infected in the US. As I type, that’s about 3.2 million cases from critical to incubating. Approximately 1% of the population.
Tomorrow it will be more than 1% by that calculation.
However, we know it is not just the 20% of serious and critical cases in the confirmed stat. Many mild and even asymptomatic are included as a result of contact tracing. I just use that as an upper limit. I’ll be comfortable saying 1% for a few more days. I have no intention of getting dragged off into some swamp of quibbling over exactly how sick is sick and who counts as infected.
Just look at all the billions and billions in the right hand column!
==
I know :-O
I’m just thankful that the SNAP/assistance $$s are down at the very bottom.
There was a time when that would get you shot, never mind jailed and fined.
Okay...that makes sense...I don’t know what I was thinking.
You said dining room, not kitchen.
I know...that has to be the hardest part....lack of socialization.
All across the country.
I pray many of them have a way to stay connected (by phone, FaceTime, etc.)
The mitigation measures (and the time lag to hospitalization of severe cases) have made it really difficult to figure out how many “real” cases are out there—but I think your “1%” is in the ballpark.
With no mitigation that figure would double every three days.
If you figure the mitigation we have now is 75% effective nationwide, that would lower the doubling rate to once every nine days.
So, we would be looking at 2% by April 8.
With more of the country shut down by that time, the doubling rate could itself be cut in half again, so say 3% by April 17.
The problem is that once the restrictions are lifted, the virus will “jump out of the box” from a larger initial number, causing real havoc in a hurry...
That is the “second wave” that I worry about....
“the chaos in the counting”...
Very impressed at the uncertainty the medcicos deal with, and even more at the uncertainty the politicians have to base their decisions on.
Note that the daily numbers don’t really settle in for up to 12 hours after 0000 UTC. They update them with late reports, and sometimes move cases between days. Your USA data point for the 29th looks like it might reflect a number that has since been updated.
Yes, I do remember that. IN fact, I think I remember reading that they were being tossed out of high windows.
Max is past due for his 9-way, they haven’t sent a notification, which they always do, and I am flat afraid to go.
Haven’t caught Graham Ledger lately, but he was also on the FluBro train.
Well, all but the most frail seem to survive it- if the healthcare system can provide the needed treatment.
Yeah there are a few exceptions. Well publicized ones (”man bites dog”).
“Herd immunity” for those not at risk, effective treatment... the flubros may get the last laugh- if they ignore the costs, which they will.
On one hand, not a bloody chance, sir. You’re the future king.
On the other hand, seal yourself off, mate, and have at it.
In the meantime, JustHarry is cozied up next to the fire overlooking the ocean in Malibu and smoking pot, having recorded a song with Bon Jovi thinking himself a new rock star and making plans to become, yes, an tour guide for virtue-signaling elites. No word on whether he will wear a tour guide uniform or have one of those little orange follow-me sticks. Meme is narrating Elephants for Disney, because it gets her out of the house and away from Harry, again. As the rest of the locals, virtue-signalers all but hardly impressed with nonroyalty, wonder how the riffraff managed to move into the neighborhood and how can anyone be as tone-deaf as these two.
Never mind, you are using new deaths, not new cases, though those do still have late changes...
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