Posted on 03/26/2020 5:42:10 AM PDT by impimp
Agreed. I see they've already started with "the Kung Flu will continue to return in cycles..." messaging. Anything to keep people panicked.
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA-NY 310.9 NY 19.5 NY % of USA 330.4 Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Cum Total % Chg Daily USA Cum Total % Chg 3/6/2020 197 33.1% 49 3.6 3/14/2020 54 10.2% 5 2 2 3.6% 56 14.3% 3/7/2020 233 18.3% 36 3.9 3/15/2020 59 9.3% 5 3 50.0% 1 4.8% 62 10.7% 3/8/2020 366 57.1% 133 5.4 3/16/2020 68 15.3% 9 7 133.3% 4 9.3% 75 21.0% 3/9/2020 463 26.5% 97 5.5 3/17/2020 84 23.5% 16 12 71.4% 5 12.5% 96 28.0% 3/10/2020 631 36.3% 168 6.0 3/18/2020 106 26.2% 22 16 33.3% 4 13.1% 122 27.1% 3/11/2020 827 31.1% 196 6.1 3/19/2020 136 28.3% 30 38 137.5% 22 21.8% 174 42.6% 3/12/2020 1,027 24.2% 200 5.6 3/20/2020 183 34.6% 47 46 21.1% 8 20.1% 229 31.6% 3/13/2020 1,266 23.3% 239 5.3 3/21/2020 238 30.1% 55 58 26.1% 12 19.6% 296 29.3% 3/14/2020 1,441 13.8% 175 4.4 3/22/2020 329 38.2% 91 76 31.0% 18 18.8% 405 36.8% 3/15/2020 1,809 25.5% 368 5.0 3/23/2020 359 9.1% 30 157 106.6% 81 30.4% 516 27.4% 3/16/2020 2,158 19.3% 349 5.4 3/24/2020 399 11.1% 40 271 72.6% 114 40.4% 670 29.8% 3/17/2020 2,503 16.0% 345 3.9 3/25/2020 644 61.4% 245 285 5.2% 14 30.7% 929 38.7% Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)
I am sure. But you really cannot “put a number” on it yet. We are way too early in this to pin down “meaningful” statistics.
Not pointing at YOU but people are trying to create narratives that simply cannot be made yet. It’s probably bad; people are dying. But trying to project on these numbers is counting raindrops instead of looking for the nature of the storm.
I'm in the camp that it is a serious virus for those who are at high risk, but that it was released as a coordinated attack to Federalize the EU and destroy Trump.
And I think the FluBronies are funny in their costumery.
If you can get someone to kiss your butt these days, make sure you take a video. Monetize that sucker on YouTube. You will be rich and famous. #Covidasskiss
(That is all in jest. The image in my mind was funny.)
I don’t see in your post the actual daily death numbers in NYC.
Could you post the actual number per day for the last couple weeks or at the link to where that data would be available?
Thanks.
Here’s why I’m focused on social distancing, it’s personal. My adult daughter just started a 14 day quarantine because she interacted with her girlfriend whose boyfriend is both a doctor and FluBro. Dr FluBro just returned from Germany, but that didn’t stop these two Stupids from getting together last week. Yesterday, both learned that they are positive. If my daughter was more like me she would have waved to her g/f rather than stop to chat, potential bruised feelings be damned. I hope all goes well, but it’s a case study, for me at least, as to why we’re in deep sushi.
Follow link within to NYC.
Worldometer is very up to date. Google it.
That’s kind of what I’m thinking about here. I have made it my own personal objective to minimize contact with anyone else. Nobody is more responsible for my well-than I am, and I honestly don’t give a damn what anyone else does to put themselves at risk.
I don’t know if the my little ponies theme helps us appear manly and authoritative.
Sorry — “my well-being” ...
Because NY was distorting US stats, this shows the pattern of US less NY. As we can see, if we peg 8 future days to Italy (they are 8 days ahead of us), then our pattern begins to flatten out as well. Again, key caveat is that NYC might still be growing (rapidly), but this also suggests regionality ie high specificity.
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA-NY 310.9 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.9 3/29/2020 1,237 19.7% 203 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.9 3/30/2020 1,404 13.5% 167 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.9 3/31/2020 1,558 11.0% 154 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.9 4/1/2020 1,749 12.2% 191 34 3/25/2020 7,503 10.0% 683 3.9 4/2/2020 1,924 10.0% 175 Gross differential 3.9 Population differential 5.1 Per capita differential 20.0 Growth rate 26 Days 35.1% 28.2% 34 Days 30.0% 24.9% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
And I do recognize I was being insensitive, perhaps even a little cruel to make light of those who are in obvious distress -- frightened, even -- over this Chinese flu ... and for that I apologize to all on this thread. I will try to maintain at least a small measure of somber-ness (if in fact there is such a word) and compassion in my future responses. Even we proud flubros are human that way ... despite that anti-flubros think we are nothing more a collection of potential arse-kissers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_New_York_metropolitan_area
Yes but all the data is corrupt as it is tied to regional medical biases. For example - Italian doctors will call the cause of death for a 90 year old with terminal cancer COvid if they test positive. Russian and German doctors don’t. So a big picture step back is sometimes warranted.
OTOH, Italy is 8 days ahead of the US. Germany & Russia don't have similar experiences for the US to accurately track.
So, I take the 8 days as a great leading indicator, with the potential corruption of individual cases with a grain of salt.
The alternative is a larger, more accurate pool of total results, but without the oh so crucial timing element.
Are you in NYC?
I believe all countries track pretty much the same in Europe. The only difference among them is reporting styles for cause of death. The reporting style in the USA I think will be less COVID heavy than Italy but our Dem doctors will be more likely to say Corona than Russian and German doctors.
Try posting on the Catholic caucus threads. You will be summarily scolded.
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