Posted on 03/25/2020 10:05:49 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #26 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3827832/posts
Thank you
“The US will have the most reported cases in the world when it reaches the 100,000 mark.”
True. We overtake Italy tomorrow, I think. But we do not know how many cases in Wuhan there really were. Or, now, in many places.
We have now out-tested everybody else, and we are the third most populous country in the world after China and India.
I would be willing to wager that China’s actual case count was way, way higher than they admit. I am sure our government, and many governments, know, and are just terrified to tell the people.
You’d think somebody would leak it, though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melatonin
Fairly concise info there.
I have some 5mg time release pills I take from time to time when I’m antsy or just can’t seem to turn my brain off.
Treatment for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome from COVID-19
Given the practical constraints on substantially increasing the global availability of ECMO services in the next few months, it is important to emphasise the other evidence-based treatment options that can be provided for patients with severe ARDS from COVID-19 (figure).2 Before endotracheal intubation, it is important to consider a trial of high-flow nasal oxygen for patients with moderately severe hypoxaemia. This procedure might avoid the need for intubation and mechanical ventilation because it provides high concentrations of humidified oxygen, low levels of positive end-expiratory pressure, and can facilitate the elimination of carbon dioxide.4 WHO guidelines support the use of high-flow nasal oxygen in some patients, but they urge close monitoring for clinical deterioration that could result in the need for emergent intubations because such procedures might increase the risk of infection to health-care workers.5
w/therapy-implementation chart:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30127-2/fulltext
Washington state had ten deaths today. That has been our average per day for the last couple weeks.
There were about 100 new cases.
Apparently our testing has increased by ten-fold so likely there will be more positive and a lot more negative.
That ECMO machine must be something else!
And I’m sure there are NYers who look down on you the and your home the same way. It does us no good to tear each other down. But if it makes you feel somehow superior, good for you.
The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
Our projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66–97) and 24% (13–90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic.
Interpretation
Restrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R0 and the duration of infectiousness.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30073-6/fulltext
Of course I live there unfortunately!!!
“Gee, you ever been here?”
From you lack of response I can only assume you have not.
And I do suspect in your neck of the woods there is another plague afoot...the one that combines the toxic reduction of cognitive capacity with liberal use of cheap Chinese hair dye...and 9 vodka martinis per day with a completely unregulated hormonal system.
And I have to think that if some of the taxes from cigs had been used to explore respiratory problems that cigs cause ,we’d be in better shape for this virus.
I don’t remember exactly what it was, but there was a run on canning equipment during one of the relatively recent crises.
Peak Prosperity illustrated it was 18 % with no symptoms at all. That includes no sore throat, no coughing, nothing at all. 50 % showing MILD symptoms seems more accurate.
Wouldn’t that be GREAT we can dream can’t we!!!
“Of course I live there unfortunately!!!”
then disregard my previous post.
If you can.
It’s still too early for anywhere but China and they aren’t sharing. Diamond Princess and South Korea offer some insight. This bug just doesn’t let go. Cases linger for a long time and then some die anyway.
I live here Mariner can’t wait to get the hell out VERY SOON!!!
Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China
... a group of predominantly German nationals who had stayed in Hubei Province was evacuated to Frankfurt, Germany, on February 1, 2020. They were to be transferred to Germersheim, Germany, and quarantined for 14 days, since this period is thought to be the upper limit of the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2. Screening for symptoms and clinical signs of infection was performed before their departure from China. A total of 126 travelers were allowed to board an aircraft operated by the German air force...
...In this effort to evacuate 126 people from Wuhan to Frankfurt, a symptom-based screening process was ineffective in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2 persons who later were found to have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in a throat swab. We discovered that shedding of potentially infectious virus may occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or only minor signs of infection.
New England Journal of Medicine, Mar 26
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899
True. They’re such sleepyheads.
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