Posted on 03/25/2020 5:48:17 AM PDT by Scooter100
Ok, so. Let's put our logic caps on.
Assuming the population ALL stayed home on date "x" as per instruction...
And assuming anyone with overt symptoms (obviously) immediately quarantines...
And assuming it takes 7 days to show overt symptoms after being infected...
Therefore, anyone at home infected has, by "x + 7", developed overt symptoms,
and since they now know it, therefore they have to continue to quarantine.
However, if you have no overt symptoms after "x + 7", you can safely go outside...
Because everyone outside on "x + 7" should be virus free.
So therefore, you can't catch it, because no one outside has it.
Right? Right? (Q.E.D., I think).
Only thing is I don't know when "x" was, nor if "7" is right.
Also, large quarantined Italian families probably mess up the calculations...
and, on top of everything else, I've forgotten all my Eigen-vector math.
***sigh***
So can I go outside and play yet?
P.S. I only have one spare package of toilet paper....hope it's enough. Apparently you die if you run out.
Nearly all the deaths in Italy were over 80 and/or with compromised immune/respiratory issues.
Healthy and young had less than a 0.5% rate of death after being admitted to hospital.
So the true rate is lower than 0.05% (probably closer to 0.005%) for all those infected.
It assumes the x+7 person had no contact with anyone including other family members who went shopping or via contaminated mail or packages.
A couple of things:
Everyone is not going to stay inside.
People can carry and transmit the virus without showing overt symptoms.
11.3 = 7
Reported out yesterday was that virus particles were found to exist in the cabins of the Princess cruise ship 17 days after passengers left ship.
Learn the “Scotch” way to use toilet paper. One roll will last a decade.
Unless you can catch it twice (there’s talk of that).
New report out says flushing commode spreads coronavirus! Stop flushing your commode!
~ Infected particles of feces and urine can be spread when the commode is flushed. Particles become airborne and float in the air from 90 seconds up to 2 weeks, infecting future persons using the commode. This leads scientists to believe that even flatulence can spread the virus as flatulence is simply warm air carrying microscopic particles of feces.
Because everyone outside on "x + 7" should be virus free.
Incorrect. You could be infected but asymptomatic.
To ensure being virus-free you would have to use x + 14, or whatever time period they are figuring the infectious phase to be now. This is, more or less, the rationale for the 21 day "lockdown" ordered in many places.
In theory only, in the real world, it’s being reported that many New Yonkers have fled from NYC hot zones and have dispersed through the country and will “seed” what were otherwise “virus free” areas.
What was Gov Coumo thinking?
As long as people are allowed to travel and go outside for "essential" things like groceries...and under the current shutdown orders, people are doing that every day of the week--the x variable is constantly moving.
The shutdown orders presume the virus understands and can differentiate between "essential" human interaction and non-essential interactions. I'm no epidemiologist, but I'm certain that viruses cannot do this.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
Cuomo is a Marxist, wants to spread the pain.
”What was Gov Coumo thinking?”
——————
That he wants to be President, and if there’s a big enough disaster, Trump will lose.
We’ve had 11 deaths from the virus in Colorado. 11! Isn’t that worth burning the place to the ground??!!
We’ve had 125 highway deaths, no one is banning cars.
We’ve had 300 suicides, no one is banning pills, guns, and rope.
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