Posted on 03/22/2020 8:08:56 PM PDT by impimp
Flubros stay strong. People will attack us for saying this is an overblown and overhyped flu. We will be proven right in the end. A global economic depression will cost more lives than this social distancing will save.
“It’s (death rate) trending DOWN.”
But the number of cases in that data seems to be doubling in less than four full days.
Assuming it doubles every four days, from 3,680 on March 15th, that would produce:
7,360 on March 19th
14,720 on March 24th
29,440 on March 28th
58,880 on April 1st
117,760 on April 5th
235,520 on April 9th
471,040 on April 13th
942,080on April 17th (heck, lets call that a million)
2 million on April 21st
4 million on April 25th
8 million on April 29th
May would be basically the great majority of the population, if unchecked, at that rate of growth.
Sorry...I am not of the mindset that I must support my government no matter what they do. I believe critical examination of governmental decisions is a good thing.
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Could you be a little more self righteous? Everyone on this great site agree’s with your word’s. That doesn’t mean we will all agree on the right response to every issue. And here’s one of the biggest of our generation and you want all of us to regress into lemmings and follow group think?
Spare the insults and learn what can be learned from dissenting opinions from other thoughtful conservatives.
Speaking of mushrooms.....a few weeks ago I was picking up some wine & vermouth at the liquor store. The new woman working there asked me what the vermouth was for. I told her I cook with it. She then said she ate a bowl of cooked mushrooms every single day! Every day. She looked very healthy.
Now I am craving mushrooms.
Based on the hysteria I thought they would be triaging people in the emergency room for the Wuflu by now. I am in Atlanta area and I read that medical staff are short on masks and looking for donations o masks at Piedmont Hospital but nothing about the actual number Wufu cases there.
“I predict at the end it will be about 0.6% or less.”
I think that is a reasonable ball park estimate - there are still unknowns, and the potential for big game changers, like effective treatments (which seems very promising).
A 0.6% death rate, that would be about 6,000 deaths per million cases.
If it runs unchecked through the population at current rates of growth, and there is no reservoir of immunity in the population (none has yet been identified) to the roughly 80% point of natural culmination, then about 1.5 million Americans would die by the May/June time frame.
Tweak a few variables, and we will get very different mortality rates - up or down.
Wow. I am sorry about that. I can only imagine what it does to your blood pressure.
Oklahoma is going to be just fine without a lockdown.
There are thousands of edible mushrooms, nearly 60 are grown commercially. Which one did you have in mind?
Yep. I have always been a naysayer. Flu will kill more than this virus.
H1N1 killed about 7,500 18-64 yr olds in 2009.
I’m not sure how many of those had the “Ivy League” immunity.
> “In times of emergency, we turn to socialism—not capitalism.”
I would suggest you go in to that “church” and take all their toilet paper.
(from somebody called "0-The Fool")
Here goes...
Class A:
Asymptomatic. 60%.
Class B:
Symptoms, but no co morbidities, in most cases.
You have symptoms but you don’t get shortness of breath that is overwhelming. You pull through with a fever for 10-12 days and a cough that will go away, eventually.
20%.
Class C:
20% need to go to the hospital...
Half(10%) need a little boost, electrolytes O2. But you know they’ll pull through.
Class D:
6-10% will go about six days and then decline to the point where they need to on respirators. Most(80%) will recover, but have extensive lung damage. The rest are dead,
I just love mushrooms in a sauce over pasta or with steak. When I was a young girl my father & I would hunt for puff ball mushrooms. My mom would cook them when we got home. Delicious memories!
Had no idea there were that many. Wow.
Get this.... Mrs Bo is nurse in Madistan WI. Hospital staff are not allowed to bring in their own N95 masks or any other PPE that wasn’t issued by the hospital. They are issued paper masks and gowns - that protect absolutely nothing.
The hospitals here have no plan whatsoever concerning a response to an influx of Kung flu patients. No response to what would happen if/when nurses doctors or patient care personnel start getting this virus. If staff contracts the virus and isn’t allowed to work because of it. Staff must use their PTO or be unpaid. The reason they stated “can’t prove they were infected at work”
The hospital is converting one floor dedicated to Kung flu patients, but who is gonna care for them when staff are at home sick, or worse yet, a patient..
Your wife should report all of that to the CDC, FEMA, the WH, your governor’s office and every other relevant Fed and state agencies and officials.
Get that info to Pence’s team one way or the other.
“Flu will kill more than this virus.”
Flu has killed 22,000 Americans this season (since September). Flu season ends by May generally.
We will have to see if this corona virus is seasonal also, as over half of them are.
This virus seems to be more infectious than the average flu, and have a higher mortality rate. There is a good chance that there might not be a reservoir of immunity in the population, in which case the peak of the epidemic will be quite high, and it could eventually run through 80% of the population. Alternatively, it might turn out that there is a good percent of the population who have enough immunity from other viruses that are close enough.
Eventually we will have more reliable measures for those variables, but the potential downside has already been seen in China and Italy. Worst case scenario in the USA could be a few million this year. I think we will do much better in practice, but it will come at a high financial cost.
Wow. Unbelievable.Yes, it is N95 masks specifically that the hospital was asking the public for here.
When she told me this,I got a sinking feeling in my gut. Then anger.
In my county in Arizona, we have 16 ppl diagnosed with Chinese virus. Only one is hospitalized and the rest have either recovered or were sent home to recover. I’m 66 and have a persistent unexplained cough and an intermittent fever but according to the CDC I’m supposed to stay home and won’t be tested. Why don’t they want to know who exactly has this virus? They’ve tested less than 500 ppl in Arizona so they can’t possibly be out of test kits. Yeah, something fishy is definitely going on here.
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